The conference title battles are behind us now and just thirteen teams remain in pursuit of the 2023-24 national championship starting with first round action on Saturday, March 9. Hobart, Utica, and Trinity have earned a first round bye based on their ranking and overall performance in the regular season and conference tournaments. A total of 10 teams will play this weekend with some terrific matchups in both the East and West to determine who advances to the quarterfinal round.
I closed out the season last week with a successful slate of 7-1-0 (.875) overall. The strong championship weekend picks improved and closed out my season at 160-67-14 (.693) which is hopefully is a portent for a strong record when it matters most in the NCAA tournament.
Normally, I just matchup with my fellow writer from the West, Brian Lester in a NCAA showdown to close out the campaign. This year in an effort to spice things up across all USCHO D-III writers, Chris Sugar, USCHO’s women’s correspondent will also join in the picks. Likewise, Brian and I will join in picking the women’s games for a D-III coverage extravaganza. Look for all our women’s picks in Chris’s weekly column while I will collect the men’s selections right through the Frozen Four in Hartford, CT. Here are the first-round prognostications from each of us and best of luck to all for the next couple of weeks of action.
Saturday, March 9, 2024
NCAA First Round
(14) Endicott v. (10) Elmira
TC – The Gulls are hot after their CCC championship win over Salve Regina while the Soaring Eagles have had a couple of weeks off following their semifinal round exit in the NEHC tournament. There is a fine line between rest and rust and Kurapov, Sterrett & Company keep their winning ways going in dramatic fashion with an OT win on the road – Endicott, 3-2
BL – This is only the second time these two teams are playing each other. The last came in 2020. Elmira is 7-5 against nationally ranked teams. Endicott is here after winning its second consecutive CCC title and is here.
The Soaring Eagles have one of the nation’s best offenses, averaging 4.1 goals per outing, good enough for sixth nationally, while the Gulls average 3.7 goals per outing and rank ninth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 1.9 goals per outing. They say defense wins championships. Give Endicott the edge. Endicott, 3-2
CS – This matchup is another odd one, I like Elmira here due to them coming out of the NEHC and the caliber of opponents the Soaring Eagles beat not just in-conference, but non-conference as well. They have two wins over Oswego, one vs Geneseo, and Utica. These two have met once in their history, Elmira won 6-5 in OT in Plattsburgh back in 2020.
Endicott enters after starting off to a rough start, but they have looked good as of late to end the season. They won the CCC so obviously they did something right. The Gulls in the famous domes of Elmira might be a problem, being away from home. – Elmira 6-2
(6) Wisconsin – Stevens Point v. (4) Adrian
TC – These teams met last year in the quarterfinal round of the NCAA tournament with the Bulldogs capturing a one-goal win to advance to the Frozen Four. Overall, the Pointers have had the better of the series and a fast start helps the visitors hold on to a one-goal win in their favor that gets them into the quarterfinals – Wisconsin – Stevens Point, 3-2
BL – It is one of those matchups you would expect to see later in the tourney, but instead, we get it in the opening round.
Adrian had its five-game winning streak end in the NCHA final against St. Norbert, getting held to just one goal. It was the first time in a regular season game since a 0-0 tie against Utica in October hat the Bulldogs were limited to a goal or less. Do not expect the Bulldogs to allow that happen this weekend.
The Pointers are coming off another WIAC title and have won two in a row. They are 8-4 on the road this season and have faced just one NCHA team in the regular season, splitting with St. Norbert.
These two teams did not play in the regular season. In fact, it is the first time, the Bulldogs are facing a WIAC team this year. A year ago, Adrian held off the Pointers 3-2 in overtime in the NCAA tourney.
Home ice might be the difference where Adrian is 14-2. A win for either team, though, would not surprise me. Adrian, 4-3
CS – I hate this game, I absolutely hate it. These two should not be playing in round one, but here we are. A rematch of last year’s quarterfinal where Adrian won in overtime. Stevens Point finds themselves with a senior-heavy roster featuring seven senior/fifth-year defenseman, led by forward Fletcher Anderson.
Adrian has been solid for most of the year, but goaltending has been iffy at times, either stellar or lack thereof. It will be one of the best, if not the best game of the tournament in my opinion, regardless of round. I am grateful to be able to attend it for the second-straight year, but we will have a new winner. UW-Stevens Point has been the more consistent team as of late, if the game was in Wisconsin I would take them in a heartbeat at this current moment, but being in Adrian, it is a dead-even money line – UW-Stevens Point 4-2
St. Olaf v. (5) St. Norbert
TC – The Green Knights are back having taken the NCHA title with a big win over Adrian. If not for a couple of lapses during the season, Tim Coghlin’s team might be higher than No. 5 in the country but none of that matters now. These two teams played early in the season with the Green Knights eking out a one-goal road win and now St. Norbert does it again on home ice with an added empty-net goal for some comfort – St. Norbert, 5-3
BL – Both teams won their conference championships, with the Green Knights claiming the NCHA crown and the Oles winning the MIAC. Their reward? Play each other.
The Green Knights are playing in the tourney for the 21st time, the second-most appearances all-time, while the Oles are here for the third time in program history. The last time St. Olaf made it, it lost 4-3 in overtime to St. Norbert in the opening round.
St. Norbert did win the regular season meeting against St. Olaf, earning a 4-3 win, but the one thing about the Oles is they are a hard team to bet against. The Oles have won four in a row, three of those on the road, but have not beaten the Green Knights since 1992. That drought ends this week. St. Olaf, 4-3
CS – A rematch of two years ago in the first-round where Olaf enters the tournament with a less-than-stellar record once again, but hey, who cares as long as you are in. Why waste your energy winning during the regular season when you can enter as the #5 seed of the MIAC every time?
The Oles look to upset the Green Knights of St. Norbert who had a rough start to the year, but dominated Adrian in their Harris Cup victory, securing them the NCAA auto-bid. Legendary Head Coach Tim Coghlin seems to have them rolling at the right time. Give me the Green Knights to win here at home and face the winner of UW-Stevens Point/Adrian, they are rivals with both, so it will be fun regardless. – St. Norbert 5-3
(12) Curry v. (7) Geneseo
TC – Both teams lost in the semifinal round of their respective conference tournaments, so they are equally rested and looking to start a new four-game win streak to close out their season. Gage Dill and Eelis Laaksonen bring a lot to the ice for the Colonels, but Geneseo’s Tyson Gilmour, Alex Dameski and Peter Morgan have a lot of depth on the home team bench. Home ice matters a lot in this one and the Knights take advantage – Geneseo, 4-1
BL – The Knights did not win their conference tournament but that means little at this point. Curry did not win its conference crown either. The goalie matchup could be a fun one to watch. Shane Soderwall of Curry leads the CCC in goals against average (1.66) while Adam Harris is the SUNYAC Goaltender of the Year and a has a GAA of 2.28. If he sets the tone early, especially with Geneseo playing at home, the Knights get the job done. They are 10-3 at home this season. Geneseo, 3-1
CS – These two are wildcards to me. Geneseo was not a team some thought would be making this hard of a run at a title considering the number of key veterans they lost last season, but goaltending has stepped up and Chris Schultz is quietly lurking in the shadows out of the SUNYAC after falling to Cortland.
Curry enters after getting beat badly by Salve 7-2, adds to the intrigue as both teams come off losses. Curry will have to prove they are the real deal here; we will find that out and see an intriguing game with two teams that haven’t met in the history of the two. Knights win and make the short trip to #1 Hobart. Geneseo 4-1
(13) Cortland v. (9) Plymouth State
TC – The Panthers are still in search of their very first NCAA tournament game win and the draw does not help them here with a quick and physical Red Dragon squad coming to New Hampshire. While Will Redick and Connor Tait are exceptional players, Jack Riedell in the visitors’ net will be the difference in yet another one-goal win coming from Anthony Bernardo and the Red Dragons – Cortland, 3-2
BL – For Cortland, it is the first ever NCAA tourney appearance for the program. They won the SUNYAC title and are just one win shy of tying the program record for wins when they won nineteen games during the 1992-93 campaign.
The Panthers won the MASCAC tournament to earn a spot in the national tourney and their twenty-three wins match the school record set last year.
These two teams have not played since 2009 when Plymouth State went 2-0 against Cortland. The Panthers have not lost at home this year, sporting a 13-0-1 record. Give them the edge – Plymouth State, 3-2
CS – A pair of teams seeking their first-ever NCAA playoff wins in which they will visit another team (Utica) who is looking for their first-ever NCAA playoff win themselves… Will Redick is blazing along with 55 points for the Panthers, the only issue here is the typical schedule for Plymouth State. The last NCAA tournament-caliber teams they have faced came all the way back on 10/27/23 vs Univ. New England and 11/4/23 vs Babson, both having down years to their standards.
Meanwhile, Joe Cardarelli’s Red Dragons have been battle tested arguably as much as anyone in this tournament and they’ve prevailed. They ended the season on a five-game winning streak, in that span they defeated: Potsdam, Oswego, Brockport, at #4 Geneseo, at #5 Plattsburgh… They are the only team in this quarter of the bracket who has seen top-caliber competition besides Utica vs Stevenson in the past one-two months. I like Cortland to head North to Utica – Cortland 4-3
So here we go, everything to play for and no reason not to leave it all on the ice in pursuit of a national championship. Should be fun to see which writer wins this year’s bragging rights in picking the bracket heading to the Frozen Four in Hartford, CT in just two weeks – “Drop the Puck!”
