It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology — College Hockey Style. It’s our weekly look at how the NCAA tournament might shape up if the season ended today.
It’s a look into the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is the latest installment of Bracketology, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced. And this year, check out our Bracketology blog, where we’ll keep you entertained, guessing and educated throughout the rest of the season.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East – Bridgeport, Conn., Northeast – Manchester, N.H., Midwest – Grand Rapids, Mich., West – Minneapolis, Minn.)
• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. There are four host institutions this year, Yale in Bridgeport, New Hampshire in Manchester, Western Michigan in Grand Rapids and Minnesota in Minneapolis.
• Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intraconference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the Championship Committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.
• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.
• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.
• Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands.”
Given these facts, here are the top 16 teams in the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders (through all games of March 10, 2009):
1 Boston University
2 Notre Dame
3 Michigan
4 Denver
5t Northeastern
5t Vermont
7t New Hampshire
7t North Dakota
9 Yale
10 Cornell
11 Miami
12 Princeton
13 Minnesota
14t Ohio State
14t St. Lawrence
14t Colorado College
17t Air Force
— Bemidji State
Highest-seeded teams in their conference tournaments:
Atlantic Hockey: Air Force
CHA: Bemidji State
CCHA: Notre Dame
ECAC: Yale
Hockey East: Boston University
WCHA: North Dakota
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
Step One
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the Top 16. The only teams that are not are Bemidji State and Air Force.
From there, we can start looking at all the ties in a more detailed fashion. We have Northeastern and Vermont at 5, New Hampshire and North Dakota at 7, and Ohio State, St. Lawrence and Colorado College at 14.
Looking at the head-to-head PairWise comparisons we break our ties. Northeastern and New Hampshire win theirs. As for the last big tie, Ohio State beats both SLU and CC to win that one.
Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Boston University
2 Notre Dame
3 Michigan
4 Denver
5 Northeastern
6 Vermont
7 New Hampshire
8 North Dakota
9 Yale
10 Cornell
11 Miami
12 Princeton
13 Minnesota
14 Ohio State
15 Air Force
16 Bemidji State
Step Two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 Seeds – Boston University, Notre Dame, Michigan, Denver
No. 2 Seeds – Northeastern, Vermont, New Hampshire, North Dakota
No. 3 Seeds – Yale, Cornell, Miami, Princeton
No. 4 Seeds – Minnesota, Ohio State, Air Force, Bemidji State
Step Three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. Following the guidelines, there are no host teams in this grouping, so that rule does not need to be enforced. We now place the No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites.
No. 1 Boston University is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
No. 2 Notre Dame is placed in the Midwest Regional in Grand Rapids.
No. 3 Michigan is placed in the West Regional in Minneapolis.
No. 4 Denver is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport.
Step Four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 Seeds
We have to place New Hampshire first, since it is a host.
No. 7 New Hampshire is placed in No. 1 Boston University’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 8 North Dakota is placed in No. 2 Notre Dame’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 6 Vermont is placed in No. 3 Michigan’s Regional, the West Regional.
No. 5 Northeastern is placed in No. 4 Denver’s Regional, the East Regional.
No. 3 Seeds
Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13. Yale must be placed first because it is hosting.
Therefore:
No. 9 Yale is placed in No. 5 Northeastern’s Regional, the East Regional.
No. 10 Cornell is placed in No. 8 North Dakota’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 11 Miami is placed in No. 7 New Hampshire’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 12 Princeton is placed in No. 6 Vermont’s Regional, the West Regional.
No. 4 Seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc. We have to place Minnesota first, since it is hosting.
No. 13 Minnesota is placed in No. 3 Michigan’s Regional, the West Regional.
No. 16 Bemidji State is sent to No. 1 Boston University’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 15 Air Force is sent to No. 2 Notre Dame’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 14 Ohio State is sent to No. 4 Denver’s Regional, the East Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
Midwest Regional:
Air Force vs. Notre Dame
Cornell vs. North Dakota
West Regional:
Minnesota vs. Michigan
Princeton vs. Vermont
East Regional:
Ohio State vs. Denver
Yale vs. Northeastern
Northeast Regional:
Bemidji State vs. Boston University
Miami vs. New Hampshire
Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have none.
So this is our bracket. Or is it?
You know, we always want to see if we can tweak it a little better.
Let’s give some thought to how we have seeded teams — the order of the seeding. Let’s make one simple change. Let’s start out with the mentality that we are going to go with perfect bracket integrity and then deal with the other rules in another order.
In this case, I want to go in this order:
1) Seed the number-one seeds first.
2) Place all the teams in perfect integral brackets.
3) Make changes based on host institutions.
4) Make changes based on intraconference matchups.
5) Make any attendance adjustments we want.
Remember that in our first scenario, we really made (3) the first rule; then we filled in (2). We just changed it a little here.
So what do we get?
Midwest Regional:
15 Air Force vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Cornell vs. 7 New Hampshire
West Regional:
14 Ohio State vs. 3 Michigan
11 Miami vs. 6 Vermont
East Regional:
13 Minnesota vs. 4 Denver
12 Princeton vs. 5 Northeastern
Northeast Regional:
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Boston University
9 Yale vs. 8 North Dakota
OK, so we used our first rule, placing the number-one seeds based on geographic proximity. Then we applied the “perfect bracket integrity rule,” with no regard to host institutions.
Now, let’s apply that third rule I laid out, the host institutions.
We switch New Hampshire with North Dakota.
We switch Yale with Princeton.
We switch Minnesota with Ohio State.
We now get:
Midwest Regional:
15 Air Force vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Cornell vs. 8 North Dakota
West Regional:
13 Minnesota vs. 3 Michigan
11 Miami vs. 6 Vermont
East Regional:
14 Ohio State vs. 4 Denver
9 Yale vs. 5 Northeastern
Northeast Regional:
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Boston University
12 Princeton vs. 7 New Hampshire
So basically all we did was swap Princeton and Miami. I’m okay with that too.
OK, let’s look at a third scenario.
What if the order of priority was:
1) Perfect bracket integrity.
2) Change intraconference matchups.
3) Place brackets by host institution and maintain bracket integrity.
4) Change for attendance.
5) See if adjustment is needed for number-one seed geographic proximity.
Let’s see what happens if we order it this way.
Here are the four regionals:
Regional 1:
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Boston University
9 Yale vs. 8 North Dakota
Regional 2:
15 Air Force vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Cornell vs. 7 New Hampshire
Regional 3:
14 Ohio State vs. 3 Michigan
11 Miami vs. 6 Vermont
Regional 4:
13 Minnesota vs. 4 Denver
12 Princeton vs. 5 Northeastern
Now let’s fix intraconference matchups. We have OSU-Michigan.
Regional 1:
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Boston University
9 Yale vs. 8 North Dakota
Regional 2:
15 Air Force vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Cornell vs. 7 New Hampshire
Regional 3:
13 Minnesota vs. 3 Michigan
11 Miami vs. 6 Vermont
Regional 4:
14 Ohio State vs. 4 Denver
12 Princeton vs. 5 Northeastern
OK, now we move onto the next rule. Maintain integrity and move the entire regional based on the hosts and assign sites.
We have three hosts in three different regionals. By default the fourth is the one remaining one.
So now we have:
East Regional (Regional 1):
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Boston University
9 Yale vs. 8 North Dakota
Northeast Regional (Regional 2):
15 Air Force vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Cornell vs. 7 New Hampshire
West Regional (Regional 3):
13 Minnesota vs. 3 Michigan
11 Miami vs. 6 Vermont
Midwest Regional (Regional 4):
14 Ohio State vs. 4 Denver
12 Princeton vs. 5 Northeastern
The only troublesome regional here would now be the Midwest Regional, with only Ohio State as a draw.
Now let’s apply the next rule. Move things based on attendance.
How about moving Miami and Princeton? Vermont and Northeastern are tied in the PWR. Why not, another CCHA team in Grand Rapids? That will work for me.
East Regional (Regional 1):
16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Boston University
9 Yale vs. 8 North Dakota
Northeast Regional (Regional 2):
15 Air Force vs. 2 Notre Dame
10 Cornell vs. 7 New Hampshire
West Regional (Regional 3):
13 Minnesota vs. 3 Michigan
12 Princeton vs. 6 Vermont
Midwest Regional (Regional 4):
14 Ohio State vs. 4 Denver
11 Miami vs. 5 Northeastern
Now for the last rule in the list, which is to adjust number-one seeds. We really can’t.
So, which of our scenarios can we go with? What will the committee go with? Is there an actual line-by-line method of bracketing? Or is it a mixture of all?
Perhaps this can help the thinking out there — that it’s not always as clear cut 1-2-3-4-5 as we might have thought.
Check the blog for updates and thoughts and we’ll see you here next week for the next Bracketology.
