Every week for the last two and a half months, I’ve been making my best attempt to tell you what teams would be in the field each week and what each of the four regionals might look like.
Earlier today, I put forward a potential bracket that had not taken account the four championship games that were played this evening. It was a unique situation as, for the first time I can remember, the 16-team field was known with one night to play.
Yes, two automatic bids needed to still be filled, those were taken by Clarkson in the ECAC and Bentley in Atlantic Hockey America. But the other 14 teams in the field knew their fate prior to any pucks dropping on Saturday.
The bracket I presented at the time checked a lot of boxes, particularly keeping No. 1 seeds close to home, avoiding intra-conference matchups and maximizing attendance in all four regions.
Here is that bracket:
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
2. Providence
3. Denver
4. Holy Cross/Bentley
Toledo Region
1. Michigan State
2. Boston University
3. Ohio State
4. Clarkson/Cornell
Allentown Region
1. Maine
2. Connecticut
3. Penn State
4. Quinnipiac
Fargo Region
1. Western Michigan
2. Minnesota
3. Massachusetts
4. Minnesota State
So how much did the results of Saturday’s four conference championship games impact these brackets? The answer: Not a lot.
That said, for one last time, let’s go through the entire process. First, we use the Pairwise Rankings to determine the 16 teams in the field. Six of those teams are automatic qualifiers having won their postseason championship. The other 10 are the highest ranked non-qualifiers. That gives use the following 16 teams:
1. Boston College
2. Michigan State*
3. Maine*
4. Western Michigan*
5. Minnesota
6. Connecticut
7. Boston University
8. Providence
9. Denver
10. Ohio State
11. Massachusetts
12. Quinnipiac
13. Penn State
14. Minnesota State*
15. Cornell*
16. Bentley*
Now, let’s seed the bracket using bracket integrity (i.e. 1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, 3 vs. 14, etc.), taking nothing else into consideration for now.
1. Boston College
8. Providence
9. Denver
16. Bentley
2. Michigan State
7. Boston University
10. Ohio State
15. Cornell
3. Maine
6. Connecticut
11. Massachusetts
14. Minnesota State
4. Western Michigan
5. Minnesota
12. Penn State
13. Quinnipiac
The next step is to avoid intra-conference matchups in the opening round, in other words make every effort to keep teams from opening the tournament playing a conference opponent.
Right now, we have one: 6 Connecticut vs. 11 Massachusetts. A quick swap of Penn State and UMass will solve this and resolve another difficulty. By changing Penn State and UMass, you group Penn State with Maine and UConn. Penn State is the host school in Allentown and must play there, so grouping them with teams that are somewhat close is helpful.
That presents us with the following:
1. Boston College
8. Providence
9. Denver
16. Bentley
2. Michigan State
7. Boston University
10. Ohio State
15. Cornell
3. Maine
6. Connecticut
12. Penn State
14. Minnesota State
4. Western Michigan
5. Minnesota
11. Massachusetts
13. Quinnipiac
Now, let’s assign regional cities to each of the four brackets. Boston College, as the top seed, plays at the closest region, Manchester, N.H. The Toledo, Ohio, region is closest to second seed Michigan State. Allentown is closer to Maine than is Fargo, plus fourth-overall Western Michigan is much closer to Fargo. Thus, we have the following:
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
8. Providence
9. Denver
16. Bentley
Toledo Region
2. Michigan State
7. Boston University
10. Ohio State
15. Cornell
Allentown Region
3. Maine
6. Connecticut
12. Penn State
14. Minnesota State
Fargo Region
4. Western Michigan
5. Minnesota
11. Massachusetts
13. Quinnipiac
Is this the final bracket? Well, I see one further change that could bring some teams closer to campus and help drive attendance. Moving Minnesota State from Allentown to Fargo brings the Mavericks closer to home and does the same for Quinnipiac.
With that adjustment, I have my final bracket for this season. Will the committee agree? Tune in to ESPNU tomorrow (Sunday) at 3 p.m. ET for the NCAA Selection Show.
Manchester Region
1. Boston College
8. Providence
9. Denver
16. Bentley
Toledo Region
2. Michigan State
7. Boston University
10. Ohio State
15. Cornell
Allentown Region
3. Maine
6. Connecticut
12. Penn State
13. Quinnipiac
Fargo Region
4. Western Michigan
5. Minnesota
11. Massachusetts
14. Minnesota State
When all is said and done, all that changed from Friday to Saturday was a swap of Penn State and Quinnipiac in the PairWise. And because these two teams occupy the 12 and 13 spots, they simply swapped seeds in Allentown with Penn State now the 3 seed (will playConnecticut) and Quinnipiac the 4 (and thus playing Maine)
The final two teams into the field were 12 Quinnipiac and 13 Penn State. The first two teams left out were 15 Michigan and 16 Arizona State.
