Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men’s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
Jim: Well, Ed, first off, Happy New Year!
The college hockey season has resumed for a lot of teams, and we can celebrate three schools that won holiday tournaments over the past weekend.
Hats off to Providence, which captured the Ledyard Bank Classic at Dartmouth. Clarkson was impressive, rallying from 3-0 down in the semifinal to beat UMass before knocking off host Wisconsin in the final of the Kwik Trip Holiday Classic. But the tournament I want to talk about is the Great Lakes Invitational.
I’ll couch this entire commentary by saying that I kind of wished Michigan was a part of the event, but I understand after last season why the Wolverines weren’t a part. But I need to tip my hat to an impressive Western Michigan club that scored 16 – sixteen! – goals in the two games while allowing just three to capture the title.
I know both you and I have wavered on the Broncos throughout the first half of this season, but 16 goals certainly opens my eyes. This team is 4-5-1 in NCHC play, but doesn’t this feel like a great jump start to the second half?
Ed: Happy New Year, Jim!
Those certainly were attention-getting wins for Western Michigan and I’m sure the Broncos would probably prefer to be playing next weekend to keep the momentum going. Their lopsided success must have delighted head coach Pat Ferschweiler from afar, as he’s away as part of the staff of USA’s World Junior team.
But, indeed, fifth place in the NCHC really doesn’t look great at this point. December wasn’t kind to the Broncos in conference, getting swept at Omaha and picking up just one point in a home weekend vs. North Dakota.
Even so, I think we’ve been sleeping on WMU a bit.
The Broncos have the top two scoring players in the country. Senior Jason Polin is the top goal scorer with 19, while the country’s leading scorer is freshman Ryan McAllister with 10 goals and 28 assists, good for a whopping 1.73 points per game.
The overall season numbers for goalie Cameron Rowe are not great at first glance, with an .893 save percentage and a 2.77 goals-against average. But you can’t stop there. Over the last month, the junior transfer from Wisconsin has a .936 save percentage and 1.73 GAA. Those are the kind of numbers, combined with a team that has averaged 4.23 goals a game, that can mean success in the second half.
I hear you about Michigan (especially after last season’s kerfuffle) but with six players away at the WJC, it’s probably the best for the Wolverines that they sat this year out.
Besides the tournaments, there were some results from this past weekend that have led to some seismic changes in the PairWise rankings. What are some that stand out for you, Jim?
Jim: Well, if you’re asking about the PairWise, it’s quite easy for me to start in a series that I called on ESPN+ the seismic upset by Alaska Anchorage of then-No. 13 UMass Lowell.
For a team that has only won two NCAA games to this point, the Seawolves were impressive. It seemed like Matt Shasby’s team knew what they were up against going into the weekend and almost resigned themselves to the fact that UMass Lowell might control play and outshoot UAA.
But at the end of the day, Alaska Anchorage was so opportunistic, found ways to transition a few times really well each night and create some true grade ‘A’ chances. Potting a handful of those chances led to two victories and, for the Seawolves, hopefully a jumpstart to the second half.
Another win that I thought stood out to me, Ed, involved Atlantic Hockey, which you follow closely. Bentley’s win over Northeastern certainly stood out given the struggles the Falcons had in the first half.
Bentley seems like a team that really can play well against good opponents. When you look at this team, what keeps them from being successful in the league?
Ed: I’ll probably be able to tell you more about Bentley after I get a chance to watch the replay of the Northeastern game in preparation for calling RIT’s games at Bentley this coming weekend.
But I’m sure a big part of it is a lack of home cooking: three of 10 league games have been on the road. The numbers are not great for the Falcons overall, but they have the players to turn it around and a lot more home games coming up.
Northeastern was picked No. 1 in the Hockey East coaches preseason poll, but it has been a rough stretch for the Huskies, losing six of their last seven, with the one win in overtime against LIU.
Northeastern’s swoon has it down to No. 44 in the PairWise, while UMass Lowell is down from No. 13 to 27, and UMass is hanging on at No. 17, just outside the bubble. Four Hockey East teams are in the top 16 as of today.
It’s even more dire for the NCHC, with just three teams in the top 16.
Meanwhile, the Big Ten is on the PairWise rise. Penn State ended its non-conference schedule at a perfect 10-0, and six teams from that conference are in the top 16.
ECAC Hockey also has three teams above the line in Quinnipiac, Harvard, and Cornell. It would be interesting to see as many teams from that conference in the NCAAs as the NCHC, and it would be a nice retirement gift for commissioner Steve Hagwell, who announced just before Christmas his plans to retire at the end of the season.
Steve has been a regular guest on our podcasts and a staunch defender of tradition in the conference most steeped in tradition. I’ve known him going back to his days overseeing D-III hockey in the ECAC, and I know his influence, expertise, and wisdom will be missed all across college hockey.
Jim: I’m going to take the first half of my final epitaph here to recognize the career of Steve Hagwell. He’s been such a legendary commissioner of the ECAC, watching the league go through many ups and downs. But more importantly he’s been a champion for college hockey,
Steve spent plenty of time in and around the NCAA office and knows the inner workings better than anyone. I’ve often leaned on him to understand legislation going through the association. His influence has been marked, but it’s also been measured. Steve has always understood what is beneficial for the game in every decision he could make. Here’s hoping that Steve and his family enjoy retirement.
Going back to our discussion of the ECAC, I look at this league as a possible dark horse this year. Quinnipiac easily could win a national title. So could Harvard. Cornell is sneaking into the mix and Clarkson, coming off the tourney win in Wisconsin, has the talent and depth to make a run. I know I personally loved watching Yale and Union make runs to national titles in 2013 and 2014, so seeing yet another ECAC resurgence would be a ton of fun this year.
Ed: Clarkson could indeed move into the mix with a nice run down the stretch. After a non-league game on the road at Holy Cross, the Golden Knights have 14 conference games to make up some territory. That schedule includes two against Harvard, and one each against Quinnipiac and Cornell. A record of 10-4 or better in the league likely will be necessary, though. (And I second all you said about Steve Hagwell.)
Let’s wrap our overview of the current PairWise with a look at the remaining conferences and independents. The CCHA has three teams just outside the bubble, but it’s not looking good for more than two teams to make it into the NCAAs right now.
Atlantic Hockey’s best at-large chance was looking like RIT, which heading into the weekend with Penn State was within striking distance and could have made it into the top 16 with a split. So we’re looking at one team from the AHA at best unless the Tigers have success on their trip to Arizona State later this month and nearly run the table in conference.
Alaska is at No. 22 in the PairWise and at first glance appears to be in the best position right now among independents. But the Nanooks will need either some points against Denver or to be nearly perfect against a schedule of independents after that – or both – to get into the top 16.
Meanwhile Arizona State at No. 26 has more opportunity to gain position with some success in the next three weekends with the Desert Hockey Classic on their home ice, plus visits from Minnesota State and RIT. After that, it’s St. Thomas at home and then an independent schedule. There’s little room for error, but if the Sun Devils can get some good wins in the next six games, getting to 24 wins on the season and making the playoffs is not out of reach.
