It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament will wind up come selection time.
It’s a look into what are the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is the next installment of our Bracketology for the 2010-11 season, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 20. Make sure to check out our other entries on the Bracketology Blog, where we’ll keep you entertained, guessing and educated throughout the rest of the season.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East — Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast — Manchester, N.H.; Midwest — Green Bay, Wis.; West — St. Louis)
• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. There are three host institutions this year, Yale in Bridgeport, New Hampshire in Manchester and Michigan Tech in Green Bay. St. Louis’ host is the CCHA, not a specific team.
• Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the championship committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.
• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.
• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.
• Once the five automatic qualifiers and 11 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands.”
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR),
and the conference leaders (through all games of Feb. 1, 2011):
1 Yale
2t Denver
2t North Dakota
4 Minnesota-Duluth
5 Boston College
6 Rensselaer
7 Wisconsin
8t New Hampshire
8t Michigan
10t Notre Dame
10t Western Michigan
12t Union
12t Merrimack
14 Dartmouth
15 Boston University
16t Princeton
16t Nebraska-Omaha
— Rochester Institute of Technology
Current conference leaders based on winning percentage:
Atlantic Hockey: RIT
CCHA: Michigan
ECAC: Yale
Hockey East: New Hampshire
WCHA: Denver
Notes
• The Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played. i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine who the current leader in each conference is. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion.
Step One
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the Top 16. The only team that is not is RIT.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Yale
2 Denver
3 North Dakota
4 Minnesota-Duluth
5 Boston College
6 Rensselaer
7 Wisconsin
8 New Hampshire
9 Michigan
10 Notre Dame
11 Western Michigan
12 Union
13 Merrimack
14 Dartmouth
15 Boston University
16 RIT
Step Two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds — Yale, Denver, North Dakota, Minnesota-Duluth
No. 2 seeds — Boston College, Rensselaer, Wisconsin, New Hampshire
No. 3 seeds — Michigan, Notre Dame, Western Michigan, Union
No. 4 seeds — Merrimack, Dartmouth, Boston University, RIT
Step Three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. Following the guidelines, there is one host team in this grouping, Yale, so Yale must be placed in its home regional, the East Regional, Bridgeport.
We now place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites.
No. 1 Yale is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport.
No. 2 Denver is placed in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay.
No. 3 North Dakota is placed in the West Regional in St. Louis.
No. 4 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
Step Four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional, as we have here with New Hampshire).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 New Hampshire is placed in No. 4 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 7 Wisconsin is placed in No. 1 Yale’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 6 Rensselaer is placed in No. 2 Denver’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 5 Boston College is placed in No. 3 North Dakota’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
Therefore:
No. 9 Michigan is placed in No. 8 New Hampshire’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 10 Notre Dame is placed in No. 7 Wisconsin’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 11 Western Michigan is placed in No. 6 Rensselaer’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 12 Union is placed in No. 5 Boston College’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 RIT is sent to No. 1 Yale’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 15 Boston University is sent to No. 2 Denver’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 14 Dartmouth is sent to No. 3 North Dakota’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 13 Merrimack is sent to No. 4 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional (St. Louis):
14 Dartmouth vs. 3 North Dakota
12 Union vs. 5 Boston College
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
15 Boston University vs. 2 Denver
11 Western Michigan vs. 6 Rensselaer
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
10 Notre Dame vs. 7 Wisconsin
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
9 Michigan vs. 8 New Hampshire
13 Merrimack vs. 4 Minnesota-Duluth
Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have none.
What else can we do for bracket integrity or attendance? Is there anything we can do?
There are a few things that we can do, that’s for sure.
Let’s just swap the WMU-RPI and Notre Dame-Wisconsin games. We get RPI to the East and we put Wisconsin in Wisconsin.
West Regional (St. Louis):
14 Dartmouth vs. 3 North Dakota
12 Union vs. 5 Boston College
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
15 Boston University vs. 2 Denver
10 Notre Dame vs. 7 Wisconsin
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
11 Western Michigan vs. 6 Rensselaer
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Merrimack vs. 4 Minnesota-Duluth
9 Michigan vs. 8 New Hampshire
Is there anything else we can do? How about swapping Merrimack-UMD and BU-Denver? Now we get BU in the east and UMD closer to its fan base.
West Regional (St. Louis):
14 Dartmouth vs. 3 North Dakota
12 Union vs. 5 Boston College
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
13 Merrimack vs. 4 Minnesota-Duluth
10 Notre Dame vs. 7 Wisconsin
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
11 Western Michigan vs. 6 Rensselaer
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Boston University vs. 2 Denver
9 Michigan vs. 8 New Hampshire
Now we’re looking OK. Except for the fact that St. Louis is not looking so great right now, but it looks unavoidable to me.
Is that it? Maybe there’s another way.
I am not really going to bend the rules, but I think I will take into account a line and try to use it.
We’ve been told that ties in the PairWise are broken by RPI. Whomever is higher in the RPI will win a tied comparison.
But what the book actually says is:
“If the point process provides a tie, the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) may serve as the determining factor, regardless of the difference.”
So, the book says it may serve as a tiebreaker, but doesn’t have to. The committee can basically break a tie any way that it wants to.
So, therefore, I propose that a tie in the PWR is broken by the cigar smoke-filled room.
Specifically, I am going to break the Michigan-New Hampshire tie in the PWR the way that I want to. New Hampshire wins the RPI battle. But in my room, the committee breaks the tie by choosing Michigan.
My rank order for selection is now:
1 Yale
2 Denver
3 North Dakota
4 Minnesota-Duluth
5 Boston College
6 Rensselaer
7 Wisconsin
8 Michigan
9 New Hampshire
10 Notre Dame
11 Western Michigan
12 Union
13 Merrimack
14 Dartmouth
15 Boston University
16 RIT
Let’s bracket.
No. 1 Yale is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport.
No. 2 Denver is placed in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay.
No. 3 North Dakota is placed in the West Regional in St. Louis.
No. 4 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
No. 8 Michigan is placed in No. 1 Yale’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 7 Wisconsin is placed in No. 2 Denver’s regional, the Midwest
Regional.
No. 6 Rensselaer is placed in No. 3 North Dakota’s regional, the West Regional
No. 5 Boston College is placed in No. 4 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 9 New Hampshire is placed in No. 5 Boston College’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 10 Notre Dame is placed in No. 8 Michigan’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 11 Western Michigan is placed in No. 7 Wisconsin’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 12 Union is placed in No. 6 Rensselaer’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 16 RIT is sent to No. 1 Yale’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 15 Boston University is sent to No. 2 Denver’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 14 Dartmouth is sent to No. 3 North Dakota’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 13 Merrimack is sent to No. 4 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
Our bracket is now:
West Regional (St. Louis):
12 Union vs. 6 Rensselaer
14 Dartmouth vs. 3 North Dakota
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
11 Western Michigan vs. 7 Wisconsin
15 Boston University vs. 2 Denver
East Regional (Bridgeport):
10 Notre Dame vs. 8 Michigan
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
9 New Hampshire vs. 5 Boston College
13 Merrimack vs. 4 Minnesota-Duluth
There are a few intraconference matchups to take care of here. BC must be moved, because UNH is a host school. But in that No. 2 seed band, we also have a Notre Dame-Michigan matchup we have to take care of.
We put a three-way swap into motion. BC to Bridgeport, Michigan to St. Louis and Rensselaer to Manchester.
West Regional (St. Louis):
12 Union vs. 8 Michigan
14 Dartmouth vs. 3 North Dakota
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
11 Western Michigan vs. 7 Wisconsin
15 Boston University vs. 2 Denver
East Regional (Bridgeport):
10 Notre Dame vs. 5 Boston College
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
9 New Hampshire vs. 6 Rensselaer
13 Merrimack vs. 4 Minnesota-Duluth
I also still like swapping BU-Denver with Merrimack-UMD, because I think the attendance concerns will be reduced with this swap.
West Regional (St. Louis):
12 Union vs. 8 Michigan
14 Dartmouth vs. 3 North Dakota
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
11 Western Michigan vs. 7 Wisconsin
13 Merrimack vs. 4 Minnesota-Duluth
East Regional (Bridgeport):
10 Notre Dame vs. 5 Boston College
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
9 New Hampshire vs. 6 Rensselaer
15 Boston University vs. 2 Denver
This is about as good as I can get it, in my opinion.
But, again, this all hinges over how the committee breaks a certain tie. This tie being the Michigan-New Hampshire tie in the PWR.
I don’t think they will break it using another method aside from the RPI, but as you can see, if they do it this way, I think you get a better tournament for the student-athletes and the fans.
You know what? I’m going for the cigar smoke-filled room.
So that is it. My bracket for the week.
More thoughts and education and plain wit on the blog. We’ll see you here next week for the next Bracketology.
