It’s time for the final Bracketology of the season. Here, I will predict how I think the NCAA Division I Men’s Ice Hockey Committee will think and what the bracket will look like when it is announced on Sunday.
First, here is my predicted bracket and then I’ll explain how I got there afterward:
East Regional (Albany):
16 RIT vs. 1 Quinnipiac
10 Yale vs 8 Massachusetts-Lowell
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 4 Providence
11 Harvard vs. 5 Boston College
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
13 Northeastern vs. 3 North Dakota
12 Notre Dame vs. 7 Michigan
West Regional (St. Paul):
15 Ferris State vs. 2 St. Cloud State
9 Boston University vs. 6 Denver
Here is the top 16 of the final PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the other autobids that are not in the top 16:
1 Quinnipiac
2 St. Cloud State
3 North Dakota
4 Providence
5 Boston College
6t Denver
6t Michigan
8t Massachusetts-Lowell
8t Boston University
10 Yale
11 Harvard
12 Notre Dame
13 Northeastern
14 Minnesota-Duluth
15 Cornell
16 Michigan Tech
30 Ferris State
36t RIT
Autobids as tournament champions:
Atlantic Hockey: RIT
Big Ten: Michigan
ECAC Hockey: Quinnipiac
Hockey East: Northeastern
NCHC: St. Cloud State
WCHA: Ferris State
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any highest seeds left that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that are not are Ferris State and RIT.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of Denver and Michigan at 6, Massachusetts-Lowell and Boston University at 8.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Quinnipiac
2 St. Cloud State
3 North Dakota
4 Providence
5 Boston College
6 Denver
7 Michigan
8 Massachusetts-Lowell
9 Boston University
10 Yale
11 Harvard
12 Notre Dame
13 Northeastern
14 Minnesota-Duluth
15 Ferris State
16 RIT
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: Quinnipiac, St. Cloud State, North Dakota, Providence
No. 2 seeds: Boston College, Denver, Michigan, Massachusetts-Lowell
No. 3 seeds: Boston University, Yale, Harvard, Notre Dame
No. 4 seeds: Northeastern, Minnesota-Duluth, Ferris State, RIT
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 Quinnipiac is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.
No. 2 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in St. Paul.
No. 3 North Dakota is placed in the Midwest Regional in Cincinnati.
No. 4 Providence is placed in the East Regional in Albany.
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell is placed in No. 1 Quinnipiac’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 7 Michigan is placed in No. 2 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 6 Denver is placed in No. 3 North Dakota’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 5 Boston College is placed in No. 4 Providence’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
No. 9 Boston University is placed in No. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 10 Yale is placed in No. 7 Michigan’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 11 Harvard is placed in No. 6 Denver’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 12 Notre Dame is placed in No. 5 Boston College’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 RIT is sent to No. 1 Quinnipiac’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 15 Ferris State is sent to No. 2 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 14 Minnesota-Duluth is sent to No. 3 North Dakota’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 13 Northeastern is sent to No. 4 Providence’s regional, the East Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
East Regional (Albany):
13 Northeastern vs. 4 Providence
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Boston College
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 RIT vs. 1 Quinnipiac
9 Boston University vs 8 Massachusetts-Lowell
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 3 North Dakota
11 Harvard vs. 6 Denver
West Regional (St. Paul):
15 Ferris State vs. 2 St. Cloud State
10 Yale vs. 7 Michigan
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have quite a few: Northeastern vs. Providence, Minnesota-Duluth vs. North Dakota, Notre Dame vs. Boston College and Boston University vs. Massachusetts-Lowell.
We can swap Northeastern and Minnesota-Duluth to clear one of those up.
East Regional (Albany):
14 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 4 Providence
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Boston College
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 RIT vs. 1 Quinnipiac
9 Boston University vs 8 Massachusetts-Lowell
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
13 Northeastern vs. 3 North Dakota
11 Harvard vs. 6 Denver
West Regional (St. Paul):
15 Ferris State vs. 2 St. Cloud State
10 Yale vs. 7 Michigan
Next, we take a look at the Hockey East matchups.
We have to swap out the Hockey East teams in the 3 band to the Western regionals and bring back the ECAC teams.
It’s highest seed vs. lowest seed. Therefore, Harvard goes to play Boston College and Yale to play Massachusetts-Lowell. In turn, Notre Dame goes to play Denver and Boston University to play Michigan.
East Regional (Albany):
14 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 4 Providence
11 Harvard vs. 5 Boston College
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 RIT vs. 1 Quinnipiac
10 Yale vs 8 Massachusetts-Lowell
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
13 Northeastern vs. 3 North Dakota
12 Notre Dame vs. 6 Denver
West Regional (St. Paul):
15 Ferris State vs. 2 St. Cloud State
9 Boston University vs. 7 Michigan
Now, we look at attendance.
As we’ve been saying all year long, we would love to get Notre Dame and Michigan in Cincinnati. So we swap Michigan and Denver.
But we also wouldn’t mind seeing Ferris State there, too.
And in some sort of irony, if you want to call it that, it’s like an old CCHA bracket with North Dakota as an interloper.
But, is this fair to do? To move Ferris State away from bracket integrity?
I can see it happening because of some perceived attendance, but I don’t think it will.
So, we leave it as is and don’t get that throwback CCHA-type bracket.
Is there anything else that we can do?
We can’t bring Minnesota-Duluth to St. Paul — though that would be great to do — because we create an all-NCHC matchup.
I think that you have to give serious consideration to swapping the entire East and Northeast Regional brackets because of attendance.
Why wouldn’t you want Providence, Boston College and Harvard in Worcester? Quinnipiac, Yale and Lowell are all close to Worcester also, but, the first set is closer to Worcester than Albany. And Quinnipiac, Yale, Lowell and RIT are just as close to Albany.
This is a tough call.
You should give Quinnipiac the closest regional being the No. 1 overall. But the argument is very, very, very compelling to put Quinnipiac in Albany.
I can’t see the committee only putting one Boston-area team in Worcester, and that team being Massachusetts-Lowell.
So I think they’ll make the switch.
East Regional (Albany):
16 RIT vs. 1 Quinnipiac
10 Yale vs 8 Massachusetts-Lowell
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 4 Providence
11 Harvard vs. 5 Boston College
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
13 Northeastern vs. 3 North Dakota
12 Notre Dame vs. 7 Michigan
West Regional (St. Paul):
15 Ferris State vs. 2 St. Cloud State
9 Boston University vs. 6 Denver
So that’s it, the bracket.
The conference breakdown:
Hockey East — 6
NCHC — 4
ECAC Hockey — 3
WCHA — 1
Big Ten — 1
Atlantic Hockey — 1
We’ll see how the committee does it at noon EDT Sunday.
