It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament will wind up come selection time.
It’s a look into what are the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
This is the next installment of our Bracketology, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 20. Make sure to check out our other entries on the Bracketology Blog, where we’ll keep you entertained, guessing and educated throughout the rest of the season.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East — Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast — Manchester, N.H.; Midwest — Green Bay, Wis.; West — St. Louis)
• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. There are three host institutions this year, Yale in Bridgeport, New Hampshire in Manchester and Michigan Tech in Green Bay. St. Louis’ host is the CCHA, not a specific team.
• Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the championship committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.
• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.
• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.
• Once the five automatic qualifiers and 11 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands.”
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders (through all games of games of March 8, 2011):
1 Yale
2 Boston College
3 North Dakota
4 Michigan
5 Denver
6t Union
6t Nebraska-Omaha
8 Merrimack
9 Miami
10t Notre Dame
10t Minnesota-Duluth
12 New Hampshire
13 Dartmouth
14t Western Michigan
14t Colorado College
16t Boston University
16t Rensselaer
— Rochester Institute of Technology
Highest seeds left in their tournaments:
Atlantic Hockey: RIT
CCHA: Michigan
ECAC Hockey: Union
Hockey East: Boston College
WCHA: North Dakota
Notes
• The Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played. i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• The team that is currently the highest remaining seed in its conference tournament is my assumed conference tournament champion, thus earning the automatic bid.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any assumed tournament champions that are not currently in the top 16. The only team that is not is RIT.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Yale
2 Boston College
3 North Dakota
4 Michigan
5 Denver
6 Union
7 Nebraska-Omaha
8 Merrimack
9 Miami
10 Notre Dame
11 Minnesota-Duluth
12 New Hampshire
13 Dartmouth
14 Western Michigan
15 Colorado College
16 RIT
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds — Yale, Boston College, North Dakota, Michigan
No. 2 seeds — Denver, Union, Nebraska-Omaha, Merrimack
No. 3 seeds — Miami, Notre Dame, Minnesota-Duluth, New Hampshire
No. 4 seeds — Dartmouth, Western Michigan, Colorado College, RIT
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. Following the guidelines, there is one host team in this grouping, Yale, so Yale must be placed in its home regional, the East Regional in Bridgeport.
We now place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites.
No. 1 Yale is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport.
No. 2 Boston College is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.
No. 3 North Dakota is placed in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay.
No. 4 Michigan is placed in the West Regional in St. Louis.
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Merrimack is placed in No. 1 Yale’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 7 Nebraska-Omaha is placed in No. 2 Boston College’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 6 Union is placed in No. 3 North Dakota’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Michigan’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
We have to place New Hampshire, a regional host, first.
Therefore:
No. 12 New Hampshire is placed in No. 7 Nebraska-Omaha’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 9 Miami is placed in No. 8 Merrimack’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 10 Notre Dame is placed in No. 6 Union’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 11 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in No. 5 Denver’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 RIT is sent to No. 1 Yale’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 15 Colorado College is sent to No. 2 Boston College’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 14 Western Michigan is sent to No. 3 North Dakota’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 13 Dartmouth is sent to No. 4 Michigan’s regional, the West Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional (St. Louis):
13 Dartmouth vs. 4 Michigan
11 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 5 Denver
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
14 Western Michigan vs. 3 North Dakota
10 Notre Dame vs. 6 Union
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
9 Miami vs. 8 Merrimack
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Colorado College vs. 2 Boston College
12 New Hampshire vs. 7 Nebraska-Omaha
Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have one, Minnesota-Duluth vs. Denver.
So we switch UMD with Notre Dame to fix that matchup.
West Regional (St. Louis):
13 Dartmouth vs. 4 Michigan
10 Notre Dame vs. 5 Denver
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
14 Western Michigan vs. 3 North Dakota
11 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 6 Union
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
9 Miami vs. 8 Merrimack
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
15 Colorado College vs. 2 Boston College
12 New Hampshire vs. 7 Nebraska-Omaha
Is there anything else that we can do?
We can switch Colorado College and Dartmouth for attendance purposes and ease of travel.
I would like to bring Union east, but that can’t really be done. If we move Union to Manchester, UNO has to go somewhere, and the only place it can go is St. Louis or Green Bay, but we create another WCHA-WCHA matchup somewhere.
But I can switch UNO and Denver in hopes of drawing some UNO fans to St. Louis.
So we make the two changes this week.
West Regional (St. Louis):
15 Colorado College vs. 4 Michigan
10 Notre Dame vs. 7 Nebraska-Omaha
Midwest Regional (Green Bay):
14 Western Michigan vs. 3 North Dakota
11 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 6 Union
East Regional (Bridgeport):
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
9 Miami vs. 8 Merrimack
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Dartmouth vs. 2 Boston College
12 New Hampshire vs. 5 Denver
More thoughts and education and plain wit on the blog. We’ll see you here next week for the next Bracketology.
