The Big Day is here, which means it’s time for the final version of Division III Bracketology. As I write this, Bowdoin and Middlebury are about to drop the puck, so there’s still some things up in the air. But since I think both teams get in, I think the result of the game might affect the seedings, but not the teams selected.
To recap a final time: eleven teams will get their tickets punched: 7 Pool A teams, 1 Pool B Team, and 3 Pool C teams. Pool A consists of the seven teams that will win playoff championships in leagues with an automatic qualifier: ECAC East, ECAC Northeast, NCHA, NESCAC, MCHA, MIAC, and SUNYAC. One Pool B slot is reserved for an independent team or team from a conference that does not have an AQ: ECAC West and MASCAC. Pool C bids will be handed out to the highest remaining teams according to the NCAA rankings.
The rub here is that there are East and West rankings, but not a combined one. So when the rubber hits the road, the committee will be combining the separate rankings on Selection Sunday.
Here’s my guess as to where the teams still in the running stand:
Got their AQ : Oswego, Norwich, St. Norbert, St. Thomas, Adrian, Curry . These teams have won their way in.
Pool C Best Bets: Plattsburgh, Middlebury/Bowdoin loser. Based on the criteria, and no matter how they are weighed, I can’t see these teams getting left home. Middlebury is an absolute lock even if they lose today, with Bowdoin slightly less so. Plattsburgh is behind both in a few criteria, but not enough to fall out of a spot.
Pool B Best Bet: Manhattanville. Even though the ECAC West doesn’t have an autobid, the selection process has enough subjectivity to allow additional weight being swung in the Valiants’ direction.
Making Their Case: Gustavus Adolphus, Elmira. I think Gustavus was far enough ahead in the criteria (Number Two Seed in the West) prior to its loss in the MIAC title game on Wednesday. Elmira was behind Bowdoin in the East rankings going into the weekend, and aren’t going to jump over anyone to get into contention for a Pool C bid. That leaves head-to-head with Manhattanville for Pool B, and, with the criteria being close enough, I think Manhattanville’s win last night outweighs a tougher schedule for the Soaring Eagles. Elmira is also behind Gustavus in most criteria.
Probably Not: St. Scholastica: Can the West get five teams? That’s the only way CSS gets in. St. Thomas upsetting Gustavus in the MIAC title game was lights out for the Saints, IMHO. But could they get in over Bowdoin? I don’t think so.
Yo, Adrian: One potential monkey wrench is Adrian, which is almost as close to a couple of Eastern teams (492 miles to Oswego; 458 miles to Elmira) as to Western schools (438 miles to St. Norbert, but 641 miles to St. Thomas and 675 miles to Gustavus). We’ll see if this has any affect on the pairings (see mine below).
OK, so let’s take a shot at a possible bracket. I think no matter who wins the NESCAC final, both Middlebury and Bowdoin get seeded higher than Plattsburgh
E1: Norwich
E2: Oswego
E3: Middlebury
E4: Bowdoin
E5: Plattsburgh
E6: Manhattanville
E7: Curry
W1: St. Norbert
W2: Gustavus Adolphus
W3: Adrian
W4: St. Thomas
First Round:
Curry at Oswego
Manhattanville at Middlebury
Plattsburgh at Bowdoin
Semifinals:
Bowdoin/Plattsburgh at Norwich
Elmira/Middlebury at Oswego/Curry
St. Thomas at Gustavus Adolphus (wait, what?)
Adrian at St. Norbert (these two get switched due to “Geographic Proximity”, which the NCAA is allowed to do.)
That is what I think will happen. Here’s some other possibilities:
St. Scholastica gets in over Plattsburgh (6-5 split):
E1: Norwich
E2: Oswego
E3: Middlebury
E4: Bowdoin
E5: Manhatanville
E6: Curry
W1: St. Norbert
W2: Gustavus Adolphus
W3: St. Scholastica
W4: Adrian
W5: St. Thomas
First Round:
St. Thomas at Adrian (looong bus ride?)
Curry at Middlebury
Manhattanvile at Bowdoin
Quarterfinals:
St. Thomas/Adrian at St. Norbert
St. Scholastica at Gustavus Adolphus
Middlebury/Curry at Oswego
Manhattanville/Bowdoin at Norwich
And finally, let’s keep these seedings but send Adrian east:
E1: Norwich
E2: Oswego
E3: Middlebury
E4: Bowdoin
E5: Manhatanville
E6: Curry
W1: St. Norbert
W2: Gustavus Adolphus
W3: St. Scholastica
W4: Adrian
W5: St. Thomas
First Round:
Adrian at Oswego
Curry at Middlebury
Manhattanville at Bowdoin
Quarterfinals:
St. Thomas at St. Norbert
St. Scholastica at Gustavus Adolphus
Middlebury/Curry at Oswego/Adrian
Manhattanville at Norwich
My head hurts. Feel free to share your comments on this as we wait for the announcement.
