Each week, USCHO’s writers debate some of the key storylines of the week in college hockey
Dan: Another happy Tuesday to you this week, Jimmy. I’m glad to see you survived the deep freeze that we endured up here in the Northeast over the past couple of weeks…as a noted cold weather person, I’m still fighting the good fight with nothing more than a hoodie and a possible long-sleeve shirt, but the -25 wind chills were a bit much over the weekend.
Speaking of the weekend, we have a lot of ground to cover. Boston College and Boston University are in their 300th meeting in the Beanpot championship game on Monday night, but I want to begin with a couple of wild games that occurred in Hockey East over the weekend that left a couple of programs in a perilous position after the previous few weeks saw them surge into playoff position.
Of those programs, it felt like UMass really took a bad hit by losing to UMass Lowell, given that the River Hawks started the weekend around the lower 40s and upper 50s of the NPI. Now stuck at No. 19, let’s jump right into it: did we just witness the end of the Minutemen’s run to an NCAA at-large bid?
Jim: I’m not sure that UMass’s NCAA hopes are over, but losing on Friday in regulation wasn’t helpful.
Right now, they are just below 20 percent to make the tournament. That’s a whole lot better than the 5 percent odds the Minutemen had at the beginning of 2026, but it is still a massive task that looms ahead.
Honestly, now that we’re into mid-February, I think most of the NCAA field is set. In the days of the PairWise, we didn’t see many teams move from outside the bubble in. I don’t want to make any sort of definitive statement here, but I think we’ll see a similar lack of movement in the NPI.
Which right now only leaves a few teams that have at-large hopes. I’d say the top 10 are likely set, with less than a 2-3 percent chance any of those teams miss the tournament.
So what teams inside the bubble right now are most at risk? That’s the question we need to ask.
I’m worried about CCHA teams the most and feel like we may see all of their members drop below the bubble, thus moving the cut line to 14, as it has been a few times in recent years.
Dan: Boston College is a team that’s genuinely in trouble. The stretch run doesn’t provide much runway for the Eagles in terms of games against upper-echelon teams, and even the games that are remaining are against several tough opponents. Merrimack, for example, beat BC at Conte Forum last year and exited the COVID pandemic with four consecutive wins over the Eagles. Two of the five wins over the past three years were two-goal games. A five-game unbeaten streak makes the Warriors even that much hotter, and a prior home win over Providence is the type of quality result that can happen on any weekend in Hockey East.
Without even taking Monday’s Beanpot final into consideration, the intersession game against Vermont this past Friday didn’t exactly do that team any favors either. For what it’s worth, I think BC’s history in that game on the weekend between Beanpot results is normally a bumpy road, but Vermont’s win dropped the Eagles two spots in an NPI race at a time when two spots are the difference between being in and out. In my opinion, though, that’s the genuine toughness about Hockey East. It’s impossible to decisively declare one-off games as anything other than 50-50 (thank you, Captain Obvious). Throw in UConn and Northeastern, and I don’t love the schedule for a BC team that needs to avoid potholes over the next couple of weeks.
Who do you have in that conversation? Or is there a team that’s maybe sitting outside of the bubble that can work its way in?
Is there any team or teams right now that you are most concerned about?
Jim: BC is the obvious one because the margin is basically non-existent — and the part that makes it feel scarier is exactly what you said: the runway isn’t “here come a bunch of top-five teams where you can fix it with a couple of losses that don’t hurt you.” It’s a lot of games where you can’t give away a regulation loss, and that’s a really uncomfortable way to live.
But for me, the bigger umbrella answer is anyone whose remaining schedule is mostly coin flips against teams that can hurt you. Hockey East is the king of that. One bad Friday, and you’re not just “a little worse” — you’re leaking value, and you don’t have the time left to earn it back.
As for a team outside the bubble that can work its way in, the formula is pretty simple: you need a weekend where you beat a team you’re not supposed to beat and you can’t give the points right back the following weekend. One big pop isn’t enough anymore — it has to come with a clean follow-up.
So I’ll throw it back to you in a specific way: if you had to pick one team currently outside (or barely on the wrong side) that has the schedule path to make the “two-week climb,” who is it — and what’s the one series they absolutely have to steal to do it?
Dan: Ironically, I’m taking a CCHA team in Augustana because the juice that’s left in its four conference games allows for enough of a flight path past UConn or BC — or even Wisconsin, which critically can’t lose to Ohio State this weekend (though the Badgers could genuinely gain ground by beating Michigan and Penn State over their last two series — but it’s also going to take a perfect storm of events to gain enough bubble space to not immediately lose the positioning if something goes wrong in another spot.
If I’m looking at Augie, I’m honestly gambling on the criteria that you pointed out. Before anything, the Vikings have to hold serve in their final home games of the year against Bowling Green. I don’t think they can lose even one of those games without torpedoing far enough into that area that’s just outside of the NCAA Tournament’s outer bubble. Without having the algorithms handy, I think their 24 percent chance of making the tournament would nosedive to around 10 percent.
If they win both games, I see the percentage increase toward 30 with two games left against a St. Thomas team that should stay around No. 12 during this weekend’s bye week. Add two more road wins over the Tommies into the mixer, and I can see Augustana moving to the No. 13 or No. 14 spot on its own merit.
Unfortunately, here’s where things get dicey. I think Augustana basically has to win out through the semifinal round of the playoffs while hoping St. Thomas doesn’t lose to Bemidji State. Minnesota State probably can’t lose to Bemidji or Northern Michigan, either. Throw in some BC losses, a UConn loss, maybe a Wisconsin loss to Ohio State alongside losses to Michigan and Penn State — all of that wouldn’t hurt.
Nothing to it.
I’ll be honest, though. I really wanted to take an NCHC team, but it sure seems like its four-team bid is pretty locked into place. I don’t think Denver or Minnesota Duluth lose enough points if they lose to Colorado College or Miami or Arizona State or Omaha, and I don’t think Miami has enough in its tank to catch the field because its last games are against Omaha. Maybe with a postseason run?
Maybe St. Cloud? Those games against North Dakota sure do look juicy, don’t they?
Jim: I don’t hate the Augustana call at all, because you’re right — the math only works if it’s basically perfect, and at least Augie has a clean, understandable path: take care of business now, then try to steal something in March. The problem is that “take care of business” part is the hard part when you’re living on the edge of the bubble.
The NCHC piece is what keeps circling back for me, too. It feels like the league’s bids are mostly spoken for, so the teams chasing have to do it the old-fashioned way: take points directly off the teams in front of them and then back it up the next weekend. That’s why St. Cloud–North Dakota is the kind of series that can actually move the line, not just shuffle it.
At this point, the whole bubble comes down to the same thing: you can’t give away a regulation loss to the wrong opponent, because there’s no time left to buy it back. That’s why these next two weekends feel less like opportunity and more like landmines.