Welcome back to Bracketology — and tonight (this morning, it is almost 3 a.m. ET) is the last one.
This is my final prediction for what the NCAA men’s hockey committee will do ahead of tomorrow’s selection show (3 p.m. ET on ESPNU). Conference championship weekend is complete, the field is set, and for once the bracket-building part is mostly about putting the pieces in the most sensible places.
We’re still using the same framework we’ve used all season: start with the NPI as the backbone, make sure every conference is represented, and then build the bracket with integrity as the guiding principle. With the tournament titles decided, the automatic bids are locked: Bentley (Atlantic Hockey), Merrimack (Hockey East), and Minnesota State (CCHA) all punched their tickets, while the Big Ten and NCHC champions were already safely in the field and simply improved their seed lines.
So our 16-team field, in seed order 1–16, is:
Michigan, North Dakota, Michigan State, Western Michigan, Denver, Dartmouth, Providence, Minnesota Duluth, Penn State, Quinnipiac, Cornell, Wisconsin, Minnesota State, Connecticut, Merrimack, and Bentley.
Now we build the bracket by bracket integrity — 1 vs 16, 2 vs 15, 3 vs 14, 4 vs 13 — and place teams into the four regionals in a way that avoids same-conference first-round matchups and respects the realities of hosts and geography.
The hosts are Union in Albany, Holy Cross in Worcester, Omaha in Sioux Falls, and Denver in Loveland. This year, we have one true placement lock: Denver is in the field and hosting in Loveland, so the committee will do everything it can to place Denver in Loveland.
From there, the rest is about putting the top line in sensible buildings while keeping the first-round matchups clean. In my final projection, the four No. 1 seeds land like this:
Michigan in Albany
North Dakota in Sioux Falls
Michigan State in Worcester
Western Michigan in Loveland
Once those anchors are in place, the bracket is refreshingly straightforward. Here’s the full projection, listed by regional:
Albany Regional
Michigan
Minnesota Duluth
Cornell
Bentley
This is a clean eastern landing spot for the top overall seed, and Cornell gives Albany a natural ECAC draw. Bentley, as the AHA champion, slides in as the four-seed.
Worcester Regional
Michigan State
Dartmouth
Penn State
Connecticut
This pod keeps meaningful eastern inventory in Worcester with Dartmouth and UConn, while Michigan State earns a true No. 1 seed placement. Penn State as the three-seed keeps the matchups cross-conference and clean.
Sioux Falls Regional
North Dakota
Providence
Quinnipiac
Merrimack (Hockey East autobid)
Sioux Falls is the obvious attendance engine this year, and North Dakota is the headliner. The rest of the pod works with bracket integrity and keeps the first round free of intra-league games, with Merrimack entering as the Hockey East champion.
Loveland Regional
Western Michigan
Denver (host)
Wisconsin
Minnesota State (CCHA autobid)
This one begins with the only hard lock — Denver in Loveland — and then builds naturally around it. Western Michigan gets the lowest No. 1 seed’s “least preferential” draw, which is consistent with how the committee typically rewards the top line. Wisconsin is the high three-seed, and Minnesota State is the CCHA champion as the four.
Final thought
This year’s endgame was unusually clean. The key reason: the championship results didn’t create a wave of bid-stealers outside the field — Michigan won the Big Ten, Dartmouth won ECAC, and the remaining autobids slotted in without forcing dramatic reshuffling. With Denver’s Loveland placement as the only true lock, the committee can follow bracket integrity, avoid same-conference first-round games, and still produce a bracket that makes sense geographically and for attendance.
FINAL BRACKET:
Albany Region
1. Michigan
2. Minnesota Duluth
3. Cornell
4. Bentley
Worcester Region
1. Michigan State
2. Dartmouth
3. Penn State
4. Connecticut
Sioux Falls Region
1. North Dakota
2. Providence
3. Quinnipiac
4. Merrimack
Loveland Region
1. Western Michigan
2. Denver
3. Wisconsin
4. Minnesota State