We’re down to the final 10 conference tournament games before the six champions are determined.
That leaves 1,024 combinations of results, and we’ve run them to determine how the final NCAA Power Index will look with each.
But here’s a summary of what we know after games of Sunday, March 15 based on an analysis of remaining scenarios. Percentages included below consider only the number of remaining scenarios and aren’t weighted for a team’s chances of victory.
Who’s in the field and who’s still in contention?
• Eleven teams have already clinched a spot in the tournament: Michigan, North Dakota, Michigan State, Western Michigan, Denver, Minnesota Duluth, Dartmouth, Providence, Cornell, Penn State and Quinnipiac.
• Nine teams can only get in via automatic bid by winning their conference tournament: Bentley and Sacred Heart in Atlantic Hockey; Ohio State in the Big Ten; Minnesota State and St. Thomas in the CCHA; Clarkson and Princeton in ECAC Hockey; and Boston College and Merrimack in Hockey East.
• UConn and UMass can make the tournament either by winning the Hockey East championship or as at-large teams.
• Wisconsin and Augustana are alive for at-large bids after being eliminated from their conference tournaments.
How does seeding look?
• Michigan will be the top overall seed, followed by North Dakota, Michigan State and Western Michigan. Those four No. 1 seeds are locked up in that order.
• Denver, Minnesota Duluth and Providence will be No. 2 seeds. The winner of the Denver-Minnesota Duluth game for the NCHC championship will finish fifth in the NPI.
• Dartmouth finishes as a No. 2 seed in 37.5% of remaining scenarios and as a No. 3 seed in 62.5%.
• Cornell and Penn State also have chances to finish as No. 2 seeds but there are more scenarios with them as No. 3 seeds.
• Wisconsin is locked into finishing 12th in the NPI so it would be a No. 3 seed if it makes the tournament. That’s still in question.
Which teams might need some help?
• Wisconsin makes the tournament in 75% of scenarios. The only set of results that keeps the Badgers out is an Ohio State win at Michigan in the Big Ten final and either Clarkson or Princeton winning the ECAC final.
• UMass and UConn both have to win their Hockey East semifinals to have any chance, even without winning the final. The Minutemen play Merrimack on Friday and the Huskies play Boston College.
• The path to an at-large bid after winning the Hockey East semifinals but losing in the championship game for both UMass and UConn comes with two requirements: Michigan beats Ohio State in the Big Ten and either Dartmouth or Cornell wins ECAC Hockey.
• Augustana needs even more help to get an at-large bid. The Vikings also need Michigan to beat Ohio State and either Dartmouth or Cornell to win ECAC Hockey. But then they need one of these four Hockey East championship game results: UConn over Merrimack, Boston College over Merrimack, UMass over Boston College or Merrimack over Boston College.