Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men’s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback
Jim: Ed, we’re now fully entrenched in the college hockey postseason and the first full week of playoff action delivered plenty of drama, including a bunch of overtime games. But what we were lacking in that first week was upsets.
Three conferences have their semifinal fields set — the NCHC, CCHA and Atlantic Hockey America. And in all three conferences, the top four seeds advanced to the semifinals. Moreover, just two best-of-three series from the weekend needed a third and deciding game and all were won by the home team.
This could just be a coincidence, but to me this seems like a trend we’ve seen much of the year. The cream has really risen to the top in many leagues this season.
Does this surprise you and is there more to this than even I’m thinking about?
Ed: I was kind of surprised to see these results, Jim. I always assume that there will be upsets in league tournaments and the NCAAs.
Best-of-three series tend to preserve the higher seed, but we often see upsets in things like 4-5 match-ups.
Even the single-elimination games last week and weekend saw only one upset in six games, Mercyhurst’s 5-2 upset of Canisius in the Atlantic Hockey play-in round, which extended Rick Gotkin’s tenure behind the Lakers’ bench by two more games.
I suppose we’ll see more upsets as we get into Hockey East’s single-elimination playoffs and the other conferences’ semifinal rounds. Only AHA has best-of-three semis.
I have thought about why this might be, and I think part of it is that there are no surprises this time of year from conference opponents. You’ve seen them on the ice. You’ve got even more video than you can watch. And you’ve got advanced analytics. Perhaps that reduces the variability.
As we get deeper into the conference tournaments, there are different things on the line depending on your league. We know that in Atlantic Hockey, it’s win and you’re in. Only one team from that conference can make the NCAA tournament and that’s the automatic qualifier, the conference champion.
But how about the CCHA? It looks to me like they could still get two teams in. Or perhaps three?
Jim: Mercyhurst sort of extended Rick Gotkin’s season by three games considering that Friday’s game one took six periods to complete. Joking aside, it has been a great career for Rick Gotkin and we wish him well in retirement.
As for the CCHA playoffs, that has my head spinning as much as any multiple overtime game. Seriously, at this point I can’t tell what to expect for at-large bids from that league. With all four top seeds advancing, the four bubble teams of Augustana and St. Thomas (inside the bubble) along with Minnesota State and Michigan Tech (outside looking it) keep their NCAA hopes — at large or automatic qualification — alive.
And if we get an Augustana-Minnesota State CCHA championship game, I do believe then we will see two CCHA teams make the tournament. If either of those teams lose in the CCHA semifinals next weekend, their chances become diminished but not destroyed. Augustana is currently 78 percent to make the tournament (that includes their chance to win the CCHA). If they lose the semifinal, they still will have a 69 percent chance of making it. Win the semi and lose in the finals, and that increases to 82 percent.
So when we look at the case for Augustana, there is still a lot of questions to be answered, but they do have an inside track on an at-large bid.
How about the NCHC tournament, Ed? This is the first year that the tournament has moved to campus sites and the league organizers, though confident they’ll have sold out buildings, probably wish they could play their final four at the old Xcel Energy Center (sorry, haven;’t gotten the hang of Grand Casino Arena) as these four teams — North Dakota, Western Michigan, Denver and Minnesota Duluth — would really draw in St. Paul.
But that said, the fact that all four of these teams can focus on the NCAA championship and not worry about making their NCAA tournament takes a lot of their collective plates.
Ed: I would bet that there’d be a great crowd in St. Paul, but the combined capacities of Engelstad and Magness arenas are about the same as whatever-it’s-called-now arena, so the extra atmosphere is no doubt worth it.
You’re right about not having to worry about making the NCAA tournament. But there is a little on the line still for everyone except North Dakota. The Fighting Hawks have clinched a top four seed in the NCAAs, so this is for pride and hardware for them.
Western Michigan can still slip into a regional No. 2 seed, although the defending national champs are about 99 percent assured of being a regional No. 1.
Denver can finish no higher than a regional-round second seed, but can drop to third, so the games are for more than just the pursuit of the recently rechristened National Cup. It’s a similar situation for Minnesota Duluth. The Bulldogs have clinched at least a regional third seed, but can still reach as high as fifth overall in the NPI.
Things seem a bit murky to me in Hockey East where only Providence is a sure thing for the NCAAs. What’s at stake for that conference as they head into single-elimination playoffs on Wednesday?
Jim: With Hockey East, it is all about the single-elimination format. We talk about the bubble and if you’re above the bubble, you appreciate single-elimination whereas being below the bubble you prefer best-of-three for the opportunity to win (but also to lose) more games.
Well, this year Hockey East has just one team near locked and 10 other teams that either are in at-large limbo (like UMass, UConn and Boston College), all of whom can still get in as an at-large, but all require help. It’s such a stark comparison to a year ago when the league had six teams in the NCAA field and all six were pretty much locked before getting to the TD Garden.
We haven’t touched on the ECAC or Big Ten playoffs, but both leagues will play quarterfinals with some potential automatic-qualifier drama still on the table, but before we close I wanted to take this chance to congratulate Alaska on winning the inaugural United Collegiate Hockey Cup tournament played outside St. Louis among the independent schools. As we talk about the drama of playoffs and overtime, I was interested that this tournament used five-minute 3-on-3 overtime and/or a shootout to decide each game’s winner rather than playing unlimited 5-on-5 overtime.
Of course, all three games of consequence (two semifinals and championship) all needed overtime and Alaska’s semifinal win over Stonehill came in a shootout.
What’s your take on this approach? I understand there isn’t an automatic qualifier on the line here, but the purist in me doesn’t love 3-on-3 or a shootout to decide a postseason championship.
Ed: I’m not a fan of a 3-on-3 or shootout for a championship, but I think this tournament falls under the rules for in-season games because they are independents. Maybe the NCAA men’s D-I ice hockey committee could make an exemption for these games in the future.
Let me wrap with a quick summary of the two leagues we didn’t get to.
In the Big Ten, Michigan and Michigan State are locks as No. 1 regional seeds. Penn State and Wisconsin are about 99 percent in, but both could slot in anywhere from regional No. 2-4 seeds. So for them, the Big Ten tournament has implications beyond the title. Minnesota, Ohio State, and Notre Dame all need to win to get in.
In the ECAC, only Quinnipiac is a lock. Cornell and Dartmouth are 99 and 98 percent, respectively. Union has a chance (with a lot of help) to get into the NCAAs if it makes it to the ECAC championship game and lose, while Colgate, Harvard, Clarkson, and Princeton need to hoist the Whitelaw Cup in Lake Placid to get in.
As of today, 38 teams still can make the NCAA field of 16 and all of them have a chance to win their conference championship.