There are only seven conference tournament games left before the National Collegiate NCAA women’s hockey tournament bracket is finalized Sunday.
There’s a lot riding on those games: getting into the field, standing atop the bracket and regional hosting rights.
USCHO’s NPI predictor lets you examine the possibilities based on scenarios you input.
Here’s what we know about how things stand before Friday’s ECAC Hockey semifinal games finalize Saturday’s five conference championship contests.
Who’s in and who still has a chance?
• Since the start of the week, Quinnipiac and Yale have earned the seventh and eighth spots in the tournament, respectively, because they are high enough in the NPI to survive the remaining number of potential conference champions from outside the NPI top 10.
• The others already in were Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, Northeastern and UConn.
• Also since the start of the week, Holy Cross, Vermont, Assumption, Stonehill and Minnesota State were eliminated because their only chance was to win their conference tournament.
• The NEWHA champion, Franklin Pierce or Saint Anselm, will get be the 11th team in the field.
• There are four teams in competition for two remaining spots: Princeton, Cornell, Mercyhurst and Minnesota Duluth.
• Cornell can only get in by winning the ECAC Hockey championship. It plays Yale in the first semifinal Friday.
• Mercyhurst only gets in with a win at Penn State in Saturday’s Atlantic Hockey championship game.
• Princeton can get in as an at-large team if it doesn’t win the ECAC championship. But it also can miss out even if it wins Friday’s semifinal against Quinnipiac. The Tigers then fall out with Mercyhurst winning the AHA championship and Cornell winning in the ECAC final.
• The best chance for Minnesota Duluth is for Penn State to beat Mercyhurst in the AHA championship game and for anyone but Cornell to win the ECAC. But there’s also a small path for the Bulldogs if Mercyhurst wins, one that involves specific results in three other league finals: Quinnipiac over Cornell in the ECAC, Northeastern over UConn in Hockey East and Wisconsin over Ohio State in the WCHA. In those two scenarios, Minnesota Duluth moves past Princeton into ninth in the NPI by either 0.002 or 0.005 (depending on the NEWHA title game result) and gets the last at-large bid.
Two games are huge for seeding
• The Wisconsin-Ohio State winner in the WCHA championship game will be the No. 1 overall seed and the loser will be No. 2.
• Minnesota’s loss to Ohio State in Thursday’s WCHA semifinals means the No. 4 overall seed is Northeastern’s to take. If Northeastern beats UConn in the Hockey East final, it takes the fourth overall seed and will host Minnesota in a regional final. If UConn beats Northeastern, Minnesota stays No. 4 and will host Northeastern.