Welcome back to Bracketology.
We’re working off the updated NPI after the weekend’s games, and we’re keeping the same framework: start with the NPI as the backbone, but make sure every conference is represented. Once again, the top 16 in the NPI does not include an Atlantic Hockey America team, so we bring in the AHA regular-season champion as the conference representative – that’s Bentley (32) — and that matters, because it effectively means the at-large cut line is 15, not 16.
So our 16-team field, using overall seeds 1–16, is the top 15 in the NPI, plus Bentley:
Michigan, Michigan State, North Dakota, Western Michigan, Penn State, Providence, Quinnipiac, Denver, Cornell, Minnesota Duluth, Dartmouth, Wisconsin, Boston College, Augustana, Connecticut, and Bentley.
Now we seed the bracket by bracket integrity. The initial four pods are 1-8-9-16, 2-7-10-15, 3-6-11-14, and 4-5-12-13.
On the first pass, that gives us:
1 Michigan / 8 Denver / 9 Cornell / 16 Bentley
2 Michigan State / 7 Quinnipiac / 10 Minnesota Duluth / 15 Connecticut
3 North Dakota / 6 Providence / 11 Dartmouth / 14 Augustana
4 Western Michigan / 5 Penn State / 12 Wisconsin / 13 Boston College
Then we ask the first question the committee asks: do we have any same-conference first-round matchups? And yes — in the 4-5-12-13 pod, Penn State and Wisconsin would meet in the opening round, and both are Big Ten teams. That’s the kind of matchup the committee avoids whenever it can.
So we fix it the committee way: swap within the same band. The cleanest move is inside the 9–12 band: switch Wisconsin (12) with Dartmouth (11). That keeps everyone on the same seed line band, it eliminates the Big Ten first-round game, and it doesn’t create a new conference matchup anywhere else.
After that swap, our pods become:
1 Michigan / 8 Denver / 9 Cornell / 16 Bentley
2 Michigan State / 7 Quinnipiac / 10 Minnesota Duluth / 15 Connecticut
3 North Dakota / 6 Providence / 12 Wisconsin / 14 Augustana
4 Western Michigan / 5 Penn State / 11 Dartmouth / 13 Boston College
Now we move to site placement. The hosts are Holy Cross in Worcester, Union in Albany, Omaha in Sioux Falls, and Denver in Loveland. Only one true hard lock: if Denver is in the field, the committee is going to work hard to keep them in Loveland. So the pod with Denver goes to Loveland:
Loveland Region
Michigan (1), Denver, Cornell, Bentley (AHA)
From there, the cleanest attendance/geography fit is to get the North Dakota pod to Sioux Falls. It’s the best building/region match we have on the board — and in this version, it also brings Augustana into the same regional footprint, which only helps:
Sioux Falls Region
North Dakota (3), Providence, Wisconsin, Augustana
That leaves two pods and two eastern sites. This is where you can be logical without forcing anything. The Western Michigan pod is the most “east-friendly” remaining group — you’ve got Penn State, Boston College, and Dartmouth all in the same four. That’s a natural Worcester pod for building purposes.
So we place:
Worcester: Western Michigan, Penn State, Dartmouth, Boston College
Albany: Michigan State, Quinnipiac, Minnesota Duluth, Connecticut
As I look at attendance, I’m pretty happy everywhere. Denver and Sioux Falls speak for themselves, while Worcester is protected with two local teams (BC, Dartmouth) and a team that likely travels well (Penn State). And Albany is as strong as we can make it with Quinnipiac and UConn. I’m making no further changes.
So the bracket this week looks like this:
Albany Region
1 Michigan State (2)
2 Quinnipiac
3 Minnesota Duluth
4 Connecticut
Worcester Region
1 Western Michigan (4)
2 Penn State
3 Dartmouth
4 Boston College
Loveland Region
1 Michigan (1)
2 Denver
3 Cornell
4 Bentley (AHA)
Sioux Falls Region
1 North Dakota (3)
2 Providence
3 Wisconsin
4 Augustana
Last in: Connecticut
Last out: Minnesota State
We’ll dig deeper into what’s tightening on the bubble — and which teams are actually playing with some real risk over the next weekend — on Thursday’s Bracketology Xtra podcast.