The final 13 conference playoff games across five NCAA women’s hockey leagues will play out this week.
That leaves 8,192 scenarios for how the NCAA Power Index will look after all of Saturday’s championship games are over.
Here’s your turn to see how the NPI looks based on results you choose. USCHO’s NPI Predictor runs the calculations based on user input.
But we also have an analysis of what’s locked in and what’s possible for the NCAA tournament field.
Here’s what we can say with confidence as of March 2:
• Six teams have clinched a spot in the tournament: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, Northeastern and UConn.
• Nine teams can make the tournament only by winning their conference championship: Mercyhurst in Atlantic Hockey; Minnesota State in the WCHA; Cornell in ECAC Hockey; Vermont and Holy Cross in Hockey East; and Assumption, Saint Anselm, Franklin Pierce and Stonehill in the NEWHA.
• Yale, Princeton and Quinnipiac can get in as at-large teams if they don’t win the ECAC Hockey playoff championship. Quinnipiac has the best overall chance, making the tournament in 95% of scenarios. Yale gets in on 80% and Princeton 61%.
• Minnesota Duluth, 10th in the NPI after a three-game loss to Minnesota State in the WCHA first round, moves up to ninth in 23 scenarios (0.3%) but stays 10th in the rest and has to hope for no other teams from outside the top 10 winning automatic bids. The Bulldogs’ overall chances stand at 14%, and the most straightforward way for them to get in is if the AHA, ECAC, Hockey East and WCHA championships are all won by teams in the top nine of the NPI.
• Those 23 scenarios with Minnesota Duluth at ninth come into play if Mercyhurst beats Penn State for the AHA title. The Bulldogs still get in if Quinnipiac wins the ECAC, Northeastern or UConn win Hockey East, anyone but Stonehill wins NEWHA, Wisconsin beats Ohio State in the WCHA final and another combination of results pushes Minnesota Duluth’s NPI just past Princeton’s.
• Wisconsin and Ohio State will be the top two seeds. The Buckeyes have a better chance of moving up to No. 1 (75% of scenarios); only a Badgers WCHA championship lands them in the top spot.
• Penn State will be the No. 3 overall seed, so it won’t have to leave Pegula Ice Arena for the rest of the season.
• Minnesota and Northeastern will finish fourth and fifth in the NPI in some order, so they’ll play each other in the regional final. The issue that’s left to be determined is who’ll be fourth and get to host: The Huskies pass the Gophers in 20.7% of scenarios. Some of those even include a Gophers WCHA championship win, but only if the opponent is Minnesota State.