Each week, USCHO’s writers debate some of the key storylines of the week in college hockey.
DAN: Well it’s Tuesday, and after discussing Boston College at length last week, I pledged to not open this week’s column with Atlantic Hockey America, ECAC, the city of Boston, traffic along I-93 and the Pike, or anything else colloquially illustrating my utter lack of knowledge outside of the Commonwealth. I actually wanted to dive back into my CCHA point from the end of last week’s column.
Then I looked at the schedule. Bentley and RIT are first and second in the AHA standings, and Bentley is one point away from clinching the regular season championship ahead of this weekend’s one-off game in Rochester…
Thanks a lot, hockey gods.
Anyway, how’s it going, Ed?
ED: Well, Dan, I’m not going to steer us too much into Atlantic Hockey America, but that league, like just about everyone else, has everything coming down to the wire. And I was thinking, wouldn’t it be great if the Falcons clinched the regular season on home ice on the 27th in front of their home fans instead of on the road?
Seriously, though, congratulations to Bentley and coach Andy Jones for taking the momentum from last year’s league championship into this season. It’s a battle to the finish in AHA again this season as six teams still can finish as high as second, but two of them could drop as far as ninth.
But since you mentioned the CCHA, why don’t we continue our whirlwind tour around college hockey there? Some of the league has four games left, others just two. The top five teams in the standings all still can win the regular season.
While St. Thomas is the only team within the NPI bubble at No. 13, Minnesota State, Augustana, Michigan Tech, and Bowling Green are 16 through 19 in that order. They’re not jockeying just for position in the league, but also for a possible at-large bid. Augustana’s two on the road vs. the Tommies this weekend are the Vikings’ last opportunity to move up as they wrap their regular season. But road wins have a lot of juice in the NPI.
What about the Big Ten? Michigan made a statement with 5 of 6 points over Penn State at home, and they’re the first team to lock an NCAA appearance.
DAN: …and is still not favored to win its own league.
Maybe that’s a sign of the Big Ten’s top-to-bottom strength. Michigan is 100 percent locked into the national tournament where Michigan State has a greater-than-99 percent chance, which is splitting hairs but an indicator that Big Blue is a fraction of a hair better than the No. 1 team in the nation. Michigan likewise has less-than-one third chance of finishing first over the Spartans, who are 70 percent locked into the top seed of the conference tournament. That said, the likelihoods are driven by the last three opponents on the Michigan State schedule and the fact that Notre Dame, Ohio State and Minnesota make up a weaker differential than a four-game swing against Wisconsin and the Gophers.
Speaking of Wisconsin, the last four games against Michigan and Penn State are essentially postseason play-in games for the Badgers since we’ve long projected the national tournament cut line to sit between No. 14 and No. 15. As is the case with Boston College, Wisconsin is essentially competing against five CCHA teams — all of which have been blessed with my kiss of death curse over the past month or so.
We’ve talked extensively about the Big Ten’s overall dominance, though, and it’s often at the expense of the NCHC. I haven’t even mentioned Western Michigan or North Dakota with the exception of last week’s conversation with Jimmy, so I’ll kick it to you for a look at an underrated — wow, that feels weird to say — NCHC.
ED: I can’t really put my finger on why the NCHC feels underrated. I know I’m seeing less of them as I juggle a broadcast schedule since I can’t arrive home after my own game to watch the league on a national network any longer. So maybe that’s part of it. (And I can’t justify the budget for three more streaming packages given how much time I can allocate to catching up on 50 games every weekend.)
But the conference is strong. Four teams inside the NPI bubble are from the NCHC, including a resurgent North Dakota, defending champs Western Michigan, plus a perennial power in Denver, and the team I missed on my scorecard, Minnesota Duluth. Recent bracketology columns by our colleague Jim Connelly have those teams in four different regionals, so yet another NCHC natty is not out of the question.
It’s a three-horse race for the conference title. North Dakota has the edge with 47 points to Denver’s 46, but the Fighting Hawks have two games in hand (as does third-place Western Michigan, which can overtake DU in one weekend with its 41 current points). A conference-playoff upset could land the conference five tournament entries.
It has been a difficult season in the NPI for Hockey East. I mentioned on our Weekend Review podcast that being limited to two or three teams is largely attributable to a less-than-expected season for Maine and what could be considered thus far a dismal one for Boston University. How do you see things out your way in Hockey East land?
DAN: Hockey East’s parity has been a major factor in killing its chances of gaining extra at-large bids. Providence’s 6-point lead over UConn and 8-point lead over Boston College contributes to a 98 percent chance of finishing first or second, but pathways exist for virtually everyone to finish anywhere from second through ninth. Even New Hampshire, in last place with 20 points, has two wins in its last four games, even though one of them was in a shootout, and just beat Boston University, 4-1, at home, and still possesses a mathematical shot at finishing second.
That’ll likely change over the next two weeks, but parity’s positive byproducts are often at the expense of national tournament spots. Neither UConn nor BC is safely inside the bubble, and UMass and Merrimack, the next two highest teams, need to essentially advance to the league championship game at TD Garden. Such is the time that I’m sure some coaches wish for a return to the old 3-game quarterfinal series format.
Aside from that, I actually want to address Maine and BU directly because I don’t think they’re necessarily disappointing anyone. Sure, they aren’t as good as the preseason polls or expectations likely projected, but neither team ever approached the NPI bubble. Maybe there’s a life cycle of “hey they’re good” turning into “they struggled out of the gate” before “they need a couple of get-right wins in conference” before “oh they’re not going to make it, are they?” approaches the station, but they never really got out of first gear.
Not like Northeastern, which was a top-10 team at the start of the season and is steadily drifting further down the NPI. I’m sure a big part of that was a front-loaded home schedule to play as many games as possible at Matthews Arena before it closed, but the No. 7 and No. 8 team in the first two months of the season — which holds wins over BC and Denver — is likely going to end up in the first round of the playoffs after it ends the season with a really strange scheduling quirk. Two games at UMass-Lowell and a game at BC are on the docket as per the norm, but those two games against Maine, one a “home” game in Portland, Maine, and the other is at the Tsongas Center.
All of that said, Hockey East could finish with anywhere from one to four teams in the tournament. Maybe it averages to two, but the teams will need to overcome both the CCHA and the shadow of ECAC Hockey, which could likewise send four teams to the dance.
ED: ECAC Hockey was a surprise for me this season, Dan. I say, “was,” because it’s settling down to be a three at-large team field in the NCAA tournament. Four was looking likely not that long ago.
Three teams are currently inside the bubble, with Quinnipiac at No. 6 and Cornell and Dartmouth at 10 and 11. The Big Green’s hot start caught a lot of attention early on, but they seem to have found their level, which is still pretty darn good and they look to be in the NCAA tournament.
Cornell keeps chugging along at the same sort of heavy and hard-to-play-against style they have in past seasons, now under first-year head coach Casey Jones.
And then there’s Quinnipiac, with a six-game unbeaten streak, a potent offense at 4.38 goals per game combined with a defense allowing just a smidgen over two a game. The power play is a potent 25 percent. There’s also the freshman phenom and Hobey contender Ethan Wyttenbach racking up 21 goals and 31 assists in 33 games for a 1.58 point per game clip. They may not be a top seed at any regional, but don’t be surprised if they exit victorious en route to the Frozen Four in Las Vegas.
But the fun part of the ECAC is that upsets happen regularly in Lake Placid, and Cleary Cup regular-season success often belongs to a different team than the one who hoists the Whitelaw at Herb Brooks Arena. Probably another three or four teams I didn’t highlight have the goods to steal the prize.
We’re poised for a thrilling end of the regular season in every conference with a lot at stake right up to the last day.