Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men’s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
JIM: Paula, I am very excited to tackle TMQ with you this week because right now the Big Ten is on my mind.
I got to watch a lot of the Penn State-Wisconsin game on Saturday and was so impressed by the Nittany Lions. That team is rolling right now and looks very different from the team that dropped lopsided games to Michigan and Michigan State in November.
The offense is rolling, goaltending and defense have been elite and Penn State was able to come from behind in both games.
The timing is perfect. Penn State is firmly set near the top of the NPI and continues to compete in the Big Ten standings. They are hitting the biggest stage this weekend with their outdoor game at Beaver Stadium against Michigan State on Saturday to round out a two-game series before playing Michigan.
By the end of next weekend, we’re really going to have a good measurement of where Penn State fits into this picture. What is your perspective?
PAULA: Given how the Nittany Lions turned the second half of last season into a Frozen Four run, I can’t say I’m surprised. Sometimes it takes a little time for good teams to gel or learn a few lessons, and I think that’s what happened in the first half for Penn State.
We throw the word “elite” around a lot, but it applies to several Big Ten teams in so many aspects of their play. The Nittany Lions are doing so many things right and, as you said, at just the right time. They’re scoring goals and getting offensive production from most skaters. The PK is among the top five nationally — which is a good thing for the most penalized team in the nation. The power play is solid, the defense is among the top 20, and they have a dynamic goaltending duo in Kevin Reidler and Joshua Fleming. Any team that is two goalies deep is a threat.
What is especially impressive is that they’re making the most of the Big Ten games in the second half, having gone 6-0-0 so far in January. Two of those opponents were behind them in the standings, but finding ways to sweep a really good Wisconsin team on the road last weekend is a real sign of how the Nittany Lions are cooking. They outscored the Badgers 10-3 in the series and Saturday’s 7-2 win was a statement.
That the Nittany Lions returned so many players from last year’s Frozen Four team is another sign that their current six-game B1G win streak isn’t a fluke. We’ve seen what getting to the Frozen Four can do for a team, even if they lose in the semifinals as Penn State did last year. It looks to me like this program has taken a huge leap forward.
They’ll be tested this weekend at home against Michigan State. The Spartans are 10-1-0 on the road and a point behind Penn State and Michigan, who are tied for first place.
What’s extra interesting to me about Penn State’s sweep last weekend is how far behind Wisconsin fell because of it. The Nittany Lions, Wolverines and Spartans each control their own destiny in terms of winning the regular season. Because of those losses, the Badgers no longer are and have dropped to 10th in the NPI.
Big Ten hockey is as good as I’ve ever seen it. Can that translate into a national championship, finally? I’d like to think it can, but as a great hockey prognosticator said very recently, “If you have North Dakota and Minnesota-Duluth in the Frozen Four with two Big Ten teams, come on. You’re going to go with North Dakota or Duluth.”
JIM: Those words sound familiar if you listened to last weekend’s podcasts. Thanks for the plug, Paula.
I’m fine with saying this is the season where the Big Ten has its best chance ever to win its first title as a conference, but I just couldn’t — or more so wouldn’t — bet the farm. Or even a little money, for that matter.
There is a fine difference between a powerhouse and a national champion, especially in the last decade. Take a look at the rosters of the last 10 national champions. I don’t remember the number off the top of my head but my memory says only one of those 10 had a first-round NHL draft pick on its roster.
Simpler said is that flash doesn’t always win. And the major reason that the NCHC has owned the national title count of late.
Do you agree here? I feel like there are more threats than ever for the Big Ten to win that first this year, but I don’t know any teams that are built like the most recent champions.
PAULA: Jimmy, I do think that some of what you say here makes sense and the point about current Big Ten teams not being built like recent champions has some merit.
That latter point, too, may predate the inception of both the Big Ten and the NCHC as conferences. Teams currently in the Big Ten had a lot of luck attracting top-tier talent when playing in the CCHA and WCHA. They were programs that could outcompete other schools in many ways. I remember Bob Daniels once telling me that Ferris State wasn’t really concerned about losing talent to, say, Michigan or Michigan State because — and I’m paraphrasing here — the kind of kid that wants to play at Ferris State wants to play at Ferris State. Daniels’s point was that the Bulldogs would attract guys that want to play in Big Rapids and, back then, perhaps with a little bit of a chip on their shoulder simply because they were competing against the Spartans and the Wolverines.
Now more than ever, that recruiting playing field feels even more tilted. There’s money, OHL talent and name recognition of B1G schools. Heaven help college hockey if the Big Ten does win a national championship soon. Then we may be talking about how the formula for building championship teams is changing.
Until we can have that conversation, I do find it interesting that some teams that attract first-rounders don’t have the kind of postseason success they’d like to have. When I first saw what you asked here, I was going to write that it’s tough to gauge that in the Big Ten because of its short history, but then the NCHC whispered in my ear. I do think that the stark difference between NCHC and Big Ten success at the Frozen Four predates the formation of each conference and how programs built teams in their respective leagues over a decade ago. Time will tell whether new approaches to coaching brought in at Michigan, Michigan State and Notre Dame will change the equation.
But speaking of the NCHC, Jimmy, how good is North Dakota? Because wow do they look good to me.
JIM: They do look dominant right now and playing at Arizona State twice gave me opportunities both nights to watch the end of both games live. What impressed me was the ability of the Fighting Hawks to respond every time Arizona State scored. And late responses both nights turned into pulling away.
That probably explains the trend of North Dakota wins — most come by lopsided margins. The question comes in tight games. They are 3-3 in one-goal games, which always raises a question mark for me come tournament time.
I think North Dakota can run away with the NCHC regular season crown. But the one team I wonder about is now red hot: defending champ Western Michigan.
Are you thinking Western will make a two-horse race of the NCHC? If not them, who?
PAULA: If I’m reading the standings, points, and remaining schedule correctly, only Western Michigan has a realistic chance of catching North Dakota. The Broncos have two games in hand on the Fighting Hawks, and the “weakest” opponent North Dakota faces in the home stretch is St. Cloud State.
North Dakota and Western Michigan end the season in Lawson Arena, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the NCHC regular-season title come down to that weekend. Who knows? Perhaps we’ll see both teams in Las Vegas, eliminating all chance of a Big Ten national championship.
(I am only half-joking.)
I love the lead-in to conference playoff hockey, and it feels as though things are a lot tighter around D-I this season. A few weeks ago, I would have argued that no one could catch Bentley in Atlantic Hockey, but the Falcons went 0-1-1 in their series against Sacred Heart a couple of weeks ago (having earned a win and tie against Princeton in nonconference play last weekend), and I think that Bentley is feeling the pressure of sitting at the top. Still, they’re sitting fairly pretty, six points ahead of second-place RIT and two games in hand against the Tigers. Winning eight of their remaining games will give Bentley the regular-season title.
Things are nutty in the CCHA. Every team has played 18 conference games, and with 42 points, first-place St. Thomas is five points ahead of Michigan Tech, six ahead of Bowling Green and seven in front of Augustana — and look at Augustana sitting on that NPI bubble.
In the ECAC, Quinnipiac and Cornell are the only two teams that appear to control their own destinies — again, if I’m reading things correctly. Quinnipiac is two points ahead of fourth-place Cornell, but both the Bobcats and Big Red have games in hand on Dartmouth and Harvard, the teams tied for second.
It will be another photo finish for Hockey East as well. First place Providence (31 points) and Boston College (tied with Connecticut for second, 28 points) have each played 14 conference games. Everyone else has played at least 15, and Boston University — tied with Massachusetts in fourth place — has played 17. As tough as Hockey East is and as loath as I am to make predictions, I can see the Friars capturing their first regular season title in 10 years, given their remaining schedule.
It will be interesting to see how all of this shakes out and how the NPI will factor into the NCAA field — and how people will complain about it once March 22 (Selection Sunday) arrives.