Welcome to an all-new season of Bracketology. Between now and March 22, Selection Sunday for the men’s Division I NCAA Ice Hockey Championship, we will provide in this space an up-to-date prediction of the 16 teams NCAA field seeded into regions according to the guidelines set out by the NCAA Division I Men’s Ice Hockey committee.
This season, there is a major shift from years past. The PairWise Rankings, often controversial but the system used to select the tournament field for more than two decades, has been replaced by the NCAA Power Index.
I encourage everyone to familiarize themselves with the new ranking system.
For this column, we’ll focus more on what can move teams up and down the rankings, what each team’s chances are to qualify for an at-large bid and how we would seed the field based on the current NPI.
This week, we’ll go even simpler and I’ll offer up a refresher on how the field is selected and seeded.
First, you need to determine the 16-team field. That happens via automatic qualifiers and at-large bids.
Each of the six Division I men’s conferences receives one automatic qualifier, which is awarded to its conference champion.
The remaining teams earn at-large bids. For at-large selection, the top teams in the NPI that have not already qualified automatically are chosen until the field is filled.
For purposes of this exercise, we’ll keep things simple: we’ll use the top 16 teams in the NPI, but ensure that every conference is represented by at least one team. Right now, the top 15 accomplish that and include teams from every league except Atlantic Hockey America.
So to include an AHA representative, we’ll select the team with the highest NPI from that league — right now, that’s Holy Cross.
That gives us the following field (with current NPI ranks)
1. Michigan
2. North Dakota
3. Wisconsin
4. Minnesota Duluth
5. Michigan State
6. Dartmouth
7. Western Michigan
8. Penn State
9. Denver
10. Quinnipiac
11. Cornell
12. Princeton
13. Augustana
14. Minnesota State
15. Connecticut
16. Holy Cross*
* Holy Cross is the top AHA team in the NPI and, for this exercise, is the conference representative.
So let’s place these 16 teams into the bracket, maintaining bracket integrity (i.e. 1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, 3 vs. 14, etc.)
1. Michigan
8. Penn State
9. Denver
16. Holy Cross
2. North Dakota
7. Western Michigan
10. Quinnipiac
15. Connecticut
3. Wisconsin
6. Dartmouth
11. Cornell
14. Minnesota State
4. Minnesota Duluth
5. Michigan State
12. Princeton
13. Augustana
If you’re a regular reader of Bracketology, you know that the next thing we have to do is avoid something the committee seems to avoid at all costs: two teams from the same conference playing one another in the first round. Right now, we have just one: 6 Dartmouth cannot play 11 Cornell in the first round.
Thus, we now have to shift teams, leaving them in the same band (1-4: 1 seed, 5-8: 2 seed, 9-12: 3 seed, 13-16: 4 seed).
When we look at Cornell at 11, the teams they can switch with are Princeton, Quinnipiac or Denver. Because Princeton and Quinnipiac are also ECAC teams, that limits what we can do by moving Cornell. So let’s look at Dartmouth.
It also limits our options for which teams we can switch Dartmouth with and avoid setting up another interconference matchup. Thus, the only team we can switch Dartmouth with is Penn State, and this is the switch I will make (Denver is a host in Loveland, something I’ll explain later).
1. Michigan
6. Dartmouth
9. Denver
16. Holy Cross
2. North Dakota
7. Western Michigan
10. Quinnipiac
15. Connecticut
3. Wisconsin
8. Penn State
11. Cornell
14. Minnesota State
4. Minnesota Duluth
5. Michigan State
12. Princeton
13. Augustana
We now have created four regions in which we do not have interconference matchups. Now we have to place each four-team pod into a region. To do that, first we need to determine if any of the four regional hosts have qualified. If so, that team must play in the region they host.
This year’s regional hosts are:
Worcester, Mass.: Holy Cross
Albany, N.Y.: Union
Sioux Falls, S.D.: Omaha (note: North Dakota is NOT the host)
Loveland, Colo.: Denver
Both Holy Cross and Denver are in the field, and worse off, they are currently in the same region, which will require another switch.
Denver cannot move without undoing the switch we just made. Thus, Holy Cross has to move. This will be controversial but, at this time, unavoidable. The one matchup that the committee has worked over the year to protect is the top overall seed vs. the lowest overall seed in the opening round. With this version of Bracketology, that’s not possible (note: as the NPI changes, this quirk likely goes away, but is good to bear in mind).
Thus, we have to switch Holy Cross and another team in their band. My preference would be to switch Holy Cross with the closest seed, 15 Connecticut. Let’s see how that looks.
1. Michigan
6. Dartmouth
9. Denver
15. Connecticut
2. North Dakota
7. Western Michigan
10. Quinnipiac
16. Holy Cross
3. Wisconsin
8. Western Michigan
11. Cornell
14. Minnesota State
4. Minnesota Duluth
5. Michigan State
12. Princeton
13. Augustana
Again, it is never ideal for the top overall seed to face a team other than the lowest overall seed, but sometimes that just isn’t possible when you follow the criteria.
Okay, with this as our four regions, let’s assign locations. Holy Cross we have established will play in Worcester. Denver will play in Loveland. So let’s place those brackets there:
Loveland Region
1. Michigan
6. Dartmouth
9. Denver
15. Connecticut
Worcester Region
2. North Dakota
7. Western Michigan
10. Quinnipiac
16. Holy Cross
Albany Region
3. Wisconsin
8. Western Michigan
11. Cornell
14. Minnesota State
Sioux Falls
4. Minnesota Duluth
5. Michigan State
12. Princeton
13. Augustana
Do we see any problems? Well, North Dakota, which carries one of the largest fan bases, is playing in Worcester when there is a regional not as far away in Sioux Falls. But if we place North Dakota in Sioux Falls, they can’t play Holy Cross. But if you switch North Dakota and Wisconsin while also switching the location of their respective regions, you can avoid this and also avoid interconference matchups.
Now we have:
Loveland Region
1. Michigan
6. Dartmouth
9. Denver
15. Connecticut
Worcester Region
3. Wisconsin
7. Western Michigan
10. Quinnipiac
16. Holy Cross
Sioux Falls
2. North Dakota
8. Penn State
11. Cornell
14. Minnesota State
Albany
4. Minnesota Duluth
5. Michigan State
12. Princeton
13. Augustana
Technically, we now have the top two teams – 1 Michigan and 2 North Dakota – each playing a team that isn’t the lowest ranked in the NPI. Maybe that’s a bit unfair, but I think in this scenario it is unavoidable. Plus, while Michigan can’t avoid its matchup with a team other than Holy Cross, I think North Dakota fans would be much happier playing Minnesota State in Sioux Falls than Holy Cross in Worcester.
The last question we need to ask before finalizing this week’s bracket: How will attendance be in each region? Attendance isn’t the main focus of the NCAA committee, but if they can boost attendance by swapping teams and not overly compromise bracket integrity, they will.
Loveland and Sioux Falls will be fine. Denver will draw in Loveland and North Dakota in Sioux Falls.
Worcester will be boosted by Holy Cross, but that 10,000+ seat building will have Quinnipiac to help carry attendance (and if Western Michigan fans travel there like they did to St. Louis, prepare for a Broncos takeover).
That leaves us with Albany and that’s ugly. Princeton is the only close school and it is three hours by car. Is there a switch we can make to get an eastern team closer? Switching one team with another won’t work well. But how about swapping an entire first-round with another?
If we move the Penn State-Cornell game to Albany and move Michigan State-Princeton to Sioux Falls, that will give Albany its single biggest boost.
Loveland Region
1. Michigan
6. Dartmouth
9. Denver
15. Connecticut
Worcester Region
3. Wisconsin
7. Western Michigan
10. Quinnipiac
16. Holy Cross
Sioux Falls
2. North Dakota
5. Michigan State
12. Princeton
14. Minnesota State
Albany
4. Minnesota Duluth
8. Penn State
11. Cornell
13. Augustana
Now I feel like we have decent-to-strong attendance across all the regions, so I have my final bracket:
Loveland Region
1. Michigan (1)
2. Dartmouth
3. Denver
4. Connecticut
Albany
1. Minnesota Duluth (4)
2. Penn State
3. Cornell
4. Augustana
Worcester Region
1. Wisconsin (3)
2. Western Michigan
3. Quinnipiac
4. Holy Cross
Sioux Falls
1. North Dakota (2)
2. Michigan State
3. Princeton
4. Minnesota State
Last in: Minnesota State, Augustana
Last out: Boston College, Harvard