Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men’s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
PAULA: Ed, we’re a few weeks shy of the new year and inches away from the midway point of the season.
Atlantic Hockey, the Big Ten and the ECAC are done with first-half conference play until the second half begins and there are only two Hockey East games scheduled. The CCHA and NCHC still have significant conference play this weekend and there are some nonconference games, but things are wrapping up – and shaping up.
Of those three conferences that have concluded league play for now, the Big Ten really put an exclamation point on its first half with play over the weekend.
After Wisconsin dismantled Notre Dame on the road, the Badgers claimed the top spot in B1G standings and I thought for sure Wisconsin would be No. 1 in our poll – as did 20 other voters, I see.
The Badgers had to come from behind twice in Friday’s 7-4 win, but they owned the third period of that contest and as hard as the Fighting Irish played in Saturday’s 9-2 game, Notre Dame didn’t really have a chance. Nine different Badgers scored in that contest. Talk about offensive depth.
Then there was the Michigan State-Michigan home-and-home split, with each winning in the other’s barn. That series was everything that fans of that rivalry could have asked for – including newcomers scoring every one of the goals in both games.
For the third week in a row now, it’s No. 1 Michigan, No. 2 Wisconsin, No. 3 Michigan State in the poll. In the NPI, Michigan is second, Wisconsin is third, Michigan State is seventh and Penn State is eighth.
I acknowledge my own bias when it comes to the Big Ten, so I have to ask: is the Big Ten as good as it looks?
ED: Paula, I think the Big Ten is as good as it looks, and (without a Big Ten bias) I hope it can keep that momentum into the postseason, especially because we’ve been expecting NIL to play a big part in that conference’s ascension for a couple of years. But so far, the conference has underachieved when it comes to the NCAA tournament, with the NCHC continuing to dominate on the national stage and the Big Ten without a title.
I was expecting both Michigan State and Penn State to be contenders again, but I must admit I was sleeping on Michigan. With Will Horcoff, T.J. Hughes, and Michael Hage each putting up 28 points so far, and rookie goaltender Jack Ivankovic putting up great numbers (as well as three shutouts), I guess I should have expected better. As should have most everyone else.
The betting markets had Penn State as the preseason favorite for the national championship, but the Nittany Lions have slid to third behind Michigan and Michigan State. I don’t think you can put a whole lot on those numbers, but they do reflect the hive mind of those placing a wager.
I’m not sure I expected as resurgent a Wisconsin as we’ve seen thus far. They’ve plugged a couple of holes and have gotten some good goaltending, but what stands out for me is their offensive production, averaging 4.44 goals per game. That outburst in two games at the Irish certainly pumped those numbers.
But to be the best, you’ve got to beat the best, as the hoary aphorism says. So far, the NCHC has laid claim to the best in seven of the last nine Frozen Fours. Until someone displaces the conference that styles itself “The National” upon suggested second reference, then I don’t think we can prematurely award best to the Big Ten.
The NCHC is nipping at the Big Ten’s tail this season, and I’ve got to say that Minnesota Duluth is the biggest surprise to me thus far. How do you rank the NCHC and its teams in the scheme of things?
PAULA: The NCHC is the conference to beat. There’s simply no other way to look at the national picture, regardless of how strong the Big Ten is this year – and B1G’s impressive regular-season nonconference win percentage in the past three seasons – and regardless of how good and deep Hockey East appears to be.
For the past two seasons, we’ve watched two different NCHC teams defeat two different Hockey East teams in the national championship game. Seven of the last 10 national championships have been won by NCHC teams: Denver three times, Minnesota Duluth twice, North Dakota and Western Michigan once each.
And guess what? Those four NCHC teams are among the top 15 in the current NPI. That’s an impressive look for the top of that conference and a nod to how difficult the rest of the conference is to play.
I mean, look at Miami. The RedHawks have two conference wins but are 10-6-0 overall. And before someone starts in with how weak their nonconference schedule is, the RedHawks have recent wins against Union and RIT, two teams that have solid overall records and are competitive within their own conferences. When the team at the bottom of a conference can beat good teams in other leagues, that says something about the strength of that last-place team’s conference.
Denver, North Dakota and Western are among the top 10 teams national in offense. North Dakota and Duluth are among the top 10 teams for defense. North Dakota’s Jan Špunar and Minnesota Duluth’s Adam Gajan are among the top 10 goaltenders for goals against, which says a lot about team defense – and Denver’s Quentin Miller is 11th.
In the NCHC, I have been most impressed with the Fighting Hawks this season, but they have yet to go head-to-head with Denver and Western. Regardless of who emerges from the NCHC this season, I do think that we’ll see the conference contend for a national championship in April.
With the NCHC, Big Ten and Hockey East doing nothing to dispel that they’re the top conferences in DI play, I think we’re seeing improvement at the top of the other three leagues, too. I’m looking at the ECAC and wondering if we might be seeing something more immediate there. Thoughts?
ED: Before I tackle your question on ECAC Hockey, I think we’re seeing a down year for Hockey East. The last two or maybe three seasons had six Hockey East teams within the PairWise Bubble at this point, while right now in the still-kinda-early NPI, only Northeastern would qualify for an at-large bid. That conference’s current .534 out-of-conference record (compared to .684 last season) is the major reason why. I would be surprised to see only two Hockey East teams in the NCAA tournament, but I would not be surprised if there are no more than three.
The ECAC is another interesting story. Two big surprises this half season are Dartmouth and Union. The Big Green are atop the NPI and have a perfect 10-0-0 record, though that NPI ranking is tenuous given Dartmouth’s 61st-out-of-63 strength of schedule. Even so, if the Big Green can go 15 and 5 in their remaining 20 games, they’d be sitting in a good spot in the NPI. Nonconference games against Army, New Hampshire and a pair vs. Arizona State will tell us a lot and impact that strength metric.
Union is off to a great start at 10-5-2, although only 3-4-1 in conference.
We could conceivably see as many teams from the ECAC in the NCAAs as from Hockey East, because Cornell, Quinnipiac, and probably also Harvard will challenge for an at-large position, and the league has a tendency toward upsets in its conference tournament at Lake Placid.
I’m not as bullish on Atlantic Hockey and the CCHA. The AHA has a much improved out-of-conference record this season, but with some tough semester break opponents coming up. I think both will be one-bid conferences this season. However, both have benefited from the uptick in player talent this season with CHL eligibility.
I guess if I had to make a prediction on teams in the NCAA tournament from each league, I’d pick four each from the Big Ten and NCHC, three each from Hockey East and ECAC, and one from AHA and CCHA. And that’s if there’s not an independent team in. (I’m looking at you, Lindenwood.)
How do you see it playing out?
PAULA: Before I answer your question, my friend, I have to admit one thing: I can’t determine whether your assertion that Hockey East is having a down year based on last year’s HEA team PWR bubble proximity says more about Hockey East than it does the change from PairWise to NPI.
Maybe once we get to the end of January or even mid-February I’ll have a better handle on what the change from PWR to NPI says about the strength of individual leagues. There is other statistical evidence to support what you say, especially inter-conference play, but I’m not ready to make that call about Hockey East.
Yet.
I’m also not ready to make a prediction about the 16-team field yet. Four teams each from the Big Ten and NCHC seems likely. Contrary to what may be apparent here, I am a data-driven kind of human. I guess I just want the kind of evidence that comes from another month solid of conference play.
Once upon a time, I used to love the many holiday tournaments that featured so much conference play at midseason, giving us a glimpse of how leagues fared against each other – sort of – after half a season had already been played. Two old-timers persist, the Ledyard Bank Classic, which dates back to 1978, and the Great Lakes Invitational, which began in 1965.
It’s hard to believe that the Desert Hockey Classic will be played for the seventh time this year. That tourney dates back to 2015-16 and has been played annually since the 2022-23 season. The Kwik Trip Holiday Faceoff is now in its fifth year, and the Coachella Valley Cactus Cup is in its second year.
I’m looking forward to seeing Arizona State and Dartmouth face off in the Ledyard Dec. 28 with the Sun Devils hosting the Desert Hockey Classic less than a week later. Michigan Tech does something similar as hosts of the GLI Dec. 27-28 before heading to Arizona. That Kwik Trip field is crazy: Boston College, Lake Superior State, Western Michigan and host Wisconsin.
What are you looking forward to with the midseason play? And do you have anything on your radar for early in the second half?
ED: I miss all of the tournaments, too. There’s really not a “trophy season” any longer.
I’m looking forward to the Kwik Trip tournament the most. That field will answer a lot. Has Boston College turned the corner on an early bumpy ride? Can Western Michigan reach the lofty heights of last season? Is Wisconsin a legitimate top three team? Those are questions that may be answered in Milwaukee at Fiserv Forum that weekend.
Beyond tournaments, I guess I’m most interested in seeing how conference races develop. The Big Ten might be a sprint to the finish. The NCHC feels pretty wide open to me right now, with any of the top four or five in a good position to win the conference. Hockey East looks that way, too. I’m especially eager to see how the “unexpected” teams fare in the second half, programs like Minnesota Duluth, Miami, or Dartmouth. Maybe include UConn and Union among those.
I understand your reluctance to go out on a limb for the NPI. Here’s my thinking as I guess about the data. First, I understand that the PairWise was massaged over the past few years to make it provide results similar to the NPI. So I am from that assuming that the season-end NPI will look a lot like the PWR would have. Second, we’re just starting to see teams reach the threshold of 12 weighted wins, after which the wins that lower your NPI are removed, allowing some teams to rise a bit, and that is why we’re seeing the early NPI make less sense to us. Eventually, things will tend to separate into overlapping bands based on league nonconference records based on strength of schedule.
We’ll see for sure as we get into January.