Treat anyone who presumes to say they know who will win the MacNaughton Cup this season with immediate suspicion.
Considering how the standings look right now — five teams are within four points of first place — it would be a fool’s errand to try and predict with any certainty who is going to take home the CCHA title.
Having said that, one series this weekend could be a big turning point in the league title race. St. Thomas and Minnesota State are currently tied at the top of the standings with 30 points apiece. As luck would have it, the Tommies and the Mavericks will be facing off in a home-and-home series.
St. Thomas coach Rico Blasi said although his team knows the situation, it’s not something they are addressing internally.
“It’s not something we actually really talk about,” he said during his weekly press conference on Monday. “Part of our culture is to focus on the process. But yes, of course, everybody knows where the standings are, right? So credit to the guys in the locker room for believing in each other and having faith in each other and having faith in something bigger than ourselves, and the love that we have for each other in the locker room. That really is an important piece in what we do. When you have those two things, everybody’s in the same boat and on the same page. That’s what we look at. Obviously, some of the results have been there for us to be in this spot, so now we have to continue to focus on what we do.”
The Tommies (12-11-1, 10-6-0 CCHA) have been atop the league standings since late November, but the Mavericks (13-9-4, 9-5-2 CCHA) finally caught up to them last weekend thanks to a four-point weekend against Northern Michigan while the Tommies were idle.
For MSU coach Luke Strand, this matchup as one with implications for the MacNaughton Cup isn’t surprising.
“I think they’ve got an ability to break a game open with some of their skill. They’ve had very good goaltending and I don’t think they beat themselves,” the Mavericks’ first-year head coach said of the Tommies. “So head to head, we know it’s going to be tough. The metrics will say we’re pretty close in a lot of aspects. And now I think we’re both more familiar with each other this time around. That would maybe be the difference, we’ve kind of maybe cracked the egg now that we’ve both played each other already.”
Strand was right about the metrics being even. The Tommies and the Mavericks are both playing sound defense — each team has given up 35 goals in 16 league games. Offensively, the Mavericks have scored slightly more (55 goals to UST’s 44 in the league); but both have prolific scorers on their top lines. The Mavericks’ Sam Morton leads the CCHA with 19 goals and 29 points overall, but St. Thomas’ Lucas Whalin is not far behind with 10 goals and 23 points.
So, there’s not much separating the two squads at the moment. And it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the teams’ first meeting back in December, just before the holiday break, was a series split. The Mavericks beat the Tommies 3-1 in Friday’s game in Mankato before St. Thomas won the return trip to Mendota Heights, Minn., 2-1.
“They’re still the defending champions, so you’re going to have to go through them, whether it’s us or anybody else,” Blasi said of having to play the Mavericks with the possibility of the league title on the line. “They’ve got arguably the best line in the conference in terms of production in Morton and [Lucas Sowder], and [Mason Wheeler is] a tough-nosed defenseman, you better have your head up when you’re going against him. They have talent up and down the lineup.”
Morton especially has been a big-time player for the Mavericks. He’s recorded at least a point in eight of MSU’s last nine games. Considering the fact that the Colorado native missed almost the entirety of last season due to injury, his bounceback year is all the more impressive.
“He’s got lots of individual attributes, but he’s a team-first guy and a lot of success has ridden on the idea that he stays within our team structure and our team plan, and I think that’s given him as much success as anything,” Strand said. “It would be easy for him to go rogue and he hasn’t. The nice part for me as a coach is he’s not chasing points he’s, chasing playing the right way. That’s given him points. And I think a lot of his points really are very timely. They’re not extra at the end of the game, they’re the ones that can separate the game.”
Case in point: In last Friday’s game against Northern Michigan, with MSU down 2-1 in the third period, Morton’s hard work on the forecheck helped him dislodge a puck from back behind the Wildcat goal. Sowder pounced on the loose puck in the slot and buried the game-tying goal. The Mavericks lost the game in a shootout but the fact that they salvaged a point helped them pull even with the Tommies after beating the Wildcats the next night.
When MSU played against the Tommies in December, Morton scored in the win but was held off the scoresheet in the loss. While that’s a small sample size–and while the Mavericks certainly have the ability to win when he doesn’t score, such is their team depth–making sure Morton is involved in the offense certainly helps their chances.
Whatever happens, however, both coaches know the season is far from over. CCHA teams play a 24-game schedule, so both will have six more games to go once this weekend is over. Minnesota State’s remaining schedule includes series against all of the other four teams within striking distance of the MacNaughton Cup — after their series with St. Thomas, they are at fifth-place Michigan Tech, then return to Mankato to host third-place Lake Superior State before traveling to face fourth-place Bemidji State in the season finale.
Strand said he knows what’s ahead, but the focus this week has to be on the task at hand.
“We’re just trying to stay focused,” he said. “If you get ahead of yourself, you’re gonna find yourself behind, and if you don’t stay in the moment, you’re gonna have to try to make up ground somewhere else. And we just want to try to keep our head down and collect our points.”
