We opened last week’s column talking about skewed lines.
Sports books simply don’t have the time and resources to pay attention to every single game in every single sport. And while I don’t know it for certain, one has to assume that artificial intelligence is being used to set some betting lines.
Sometimes fan bases themselves can influence lines. How so? Let me explain.
If a sports book takes too much action on one side of a matchup, they end up with too much liability. Ideally, a book would get 50% of the action on each team so it makes the 15% or so markup on the average bet. If that was the case in every game, books would be thrilled.
But, of course, that never happens. One team usually takes a little more of the action. In fact, for certain teams – I’ll use Notre Dame as an example – name recognition and popularity often results in more bettors taking the action.
When books know that one team might be bet more heavily just on name recognition alone, they will skew the line to the opponent to make said opponent more tempting. We’ll see that a couple of times this week, no more so than the first matchup below.
No. 6 Boston University (+165) at Notre Dame (-215); o/u 5.5
Anyone take a look at this line and simply scratch their head? It’s like the sports book is trying to get everyone to bet on Boston University.
A week ago, the Terriers were the number one team in the nation. Sure, they’re coming off a 6-4 road loss at New Hampshire, but Notre Dame lost 3-0 on the road at RIT last weekend.
So how do we justify this line? It’s like that when Notre Dame is available, they take a lot of early season money on name recognition. Especially in the modern-day gambling where more casual fans are making numerous bets in a night, it’s not unheard of for a fan to think, “Notre Dame, of yeah, they’re great. They’ll win,” without doing much research.
You may not get Boston University for plus money that often this year. And I’m not guaranteeing a Friday win for the Terriers. But there is a ton of value to bet BU right now.
Massachusetts (-166) at No. 19 Minnesota State (+130); o/u 5.5
This is another line that is a bit of a head scratcher. Sure, UMass beat Michigan thanks to a six-goal third period last Saturday, but that frame was the only one the Minutemen won on the weekend against the Wolverines.
Minnesota State, on the other hand, is coming off a two-game sweep of St. Cloud State and has jumped into the top 20 in the USCHO.com poll this week.
Certainly a confusing line, but it does present the home underdog scenario that my colleague Dan Rubin loves so much.
Ohio State (+140) at No. 7 Michigan (-180); o/u 6.5
This one seems like a line where we are back to reality a little more, so let’s maybe ignore the matchup itself and focus on the over/under. At 6.5, it’s the highest o/u we’ve had this season, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise.
The Wolverines are averaging 8.25 total goals per game, having played in three straight games where the teams combine for 9 goals. Ohio State is a little tamer, averaging less than 6 goals combined in its three games.
When these two teams played a season ago, the totals were 9, 6, 6, 6 and 10. So the 6.5 over/under seems like a pretty good number, with enough historical data to favor the over in this matchup.
No. 2 Denver (-200) at No. 10 Providence (+154); o/u 6
When these two teams played last season at Magness Arena, it was a two-game sweep for the host Pioneers. But while the Friday 4-1 win was comfortable, Saturday’s game took overtime, with Denver coming away victorious, 3-2.
In fact, the last 10 times these teams played, the series is quite even (4-3-3 in Denver’s favor), so there isn’t much separating these two teams.
Certainly Denver’s No. 2 ranking is difficult to ignore, but the home ice advantage makes Providence a solid value at +154.
No. 1 Minnesota (-145) at No. 5 North Dakota (+114); o/u 6
One of college hockey’s greatest rivalries will renew in Grand Forks this weekend and both teams are currently ranked top 5 in the USCHO.com poll, making this a must-watch.
The action in this game might be difficult. Minnesota is correctly priced at -145, though there may be a little value for North Dakota at +114 given Minnesota’s early-season injury trouble.
Mentally, I felt like an over/under of 6 was low, but then looked at the last four games with totals of 5, 9, 6 and 5. It seems like the books even nailed this number.
For me, this is a wager to avoid. But that’s hard to tell these two passionate fanbases.
