While there are some handsome games to handicap below, and you will get plenty of details on them, I wanted to take the opportunity to talk about some long-term lines that are available through DraftKings on the eventual national champion.
Michigan was the preseason favorite on the line and continues to be. Right now the Wolverines would pay +500, or 5-to-1 on any bet you make. Minnesota is +700 and Denver is +800. Those are your three current favorites to win the national title. But is this ia worthy bet?
For a favorite so short, I would say no. You’re better off waiting for the actual tournament to arrive and, if you really believe in your favorite, bet some money on them in each game and make about the same – if not a larger – profit.
So when does it actually make sense to wage a futures bet on the eventual national champion? I feel like any team that is 20-to-1 or higher (reads on the line as +2000). Notre Dame and Massachusetts are both +2000, Northeastern and Quinnipiac are both +2500.
The one team that keeps standing out to me, though, is Penn State. Heading into the Michigan weekend, despite the 8-0-0 record, Penn State was +5000, or 50-to-1. After Friday’s 7-4 win, those odds dropped to +3000. But after the Nittany Lions rallied from three down in the third and earned a single point in a 4-3 overtime loss, the odds didn’t change for Penn State. Today, they are +2500 after beating Minnesota on Thursday. Still, one of the better values out there.
The long-term bet values are pretty good, if you’re willing to tie up your money for a long amount of time. You also land in a position if you are a game away from a national championship that you can hedge against your bet and still make some money if you get that close to a national title.
All things to consider when looking long term.
Here are this week’s five games that our writers handicapped:
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
No. 10 Ohio State (-125) at Michigan State (-105); o/u 5.5
A few weeks ago, we might consider this a blow away. But Michigan State’s recent play, including last weekend outscoring Wisconsin, 10-1, has people taking not of the Spartans who will play this series at home.
Ohio State still remains consistent but lost five points on the line for Friday after falling, 4-2, in the series opener against Sparty. Ohio State is now -125 (was -130) and is a virtual pick ’em against a Michigan State team that is now -105.
Sweeps are always difficult to come by, but you’re not getting much value to chose Ohio State tonight.
No. 8 Penn State (+165) at No. 1 Minnesota (-205); o/u 6.5
After Thursday night’s 4-2 victory for Penn State, we saw a significant line move as each team jumped 20 points in the opposite direction. Minnesota remains a heavy favorite at -205, but was -225 before Thursday’s game, the fourth loss in eight games for the currently top-rated Gophers.
Penn State should begin being more of a darling for the books and its win on Thursday not only moved their line on Friday from +186 to +165, but also lowered their odds to win the national championship from +3000 to +2500. That’s now half of the +5000 line that was offered prior to last weekend when Penn State sat at 8-0-0.
No. 7 Connecticut (-110) at No. 9 Providence (-120); o/u 5.5
Can Hockey East provide a matchup of two hotter teams? UConn is 9-1-1 and competing for a top spot in the national polls. Providence comes off of taking five-of-six points from UMass a weekend ago, which is pretty decent for this Friars team that might not be getting the respect it deserves.
Now the question is what UConn can do on the road in a game where goals might be at a premium.
Imagine that no matter who wins, the score will be 2-1 or 3-2. That’s one of those facts of this series. Heavy hockey, difficult to get scoring chances.
All that said, no one would be surprised if this Friday was like last, where one team scored four quick goals and the game went haywire. Defense became optional and systems were lost.
That would derail this matchup but the reality is this should be a tight-checking game.
No. 14 Boston University (+150) at No. 11 Massachusetts (-185); o/u 6
Are BU and UMass two of the top teams in Hockey East? You might think so, but line makers don’t agree.
UMass is a massive favorite at home this week, despite having dropped three games in a tow (two in overtime). BU is coming off a bye week which allows them to heal some injuries. So the +150 number if relatively solid odds.
But should you jump on the Terriers? Tough question. BU won on the road in Amherst a season ago, but does that say much? The Terriers are definitely in a position to prove things.
Should UMass be in that spot too? Maybe. Since the Denver sweep which opened people’s eyes, life hasn’t been easy for the Minutemen, losing three straight after five wins in a row. Right the ship will be the motto in the UMass locker room this weekend. BU’s might be continuing to sail.
No. 2 Denver (-115) at No. 12 North Dakota (-115); o/u 6
There may not be a team that bettors should worry about more than North Dakota. The Fighting Hawks are 2-3-2 in their last seven with just one regulation win that that span. Their last five games have been away from home, which can be a semi-excuse, but what to we know about North Dakota?
We know more about Denver, which is 5-1-0 since its two-game series sweep at UMass. The Pioneers are limiting their opponents to two goals or less in that span outside of the 4-3 OT loss to St. Cloud State last week.
Still, Vegas isn’t ready to give much credence to the second-ranked Pioneers.
Will home ice matter this weekend? It should being in Grand Forks, but this also can be filed in the category of “you never know.”
Still, we like North Dakota here though wonder if the games will be very high-scoring. That over/under of 6 seems near perfect as 4-2 might be the score each night.
