The Big Ten playoffs start this weekend, and here are reasons for and against each team winning the championship and getting the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.
Michigan
Why the Wolverines will win the tournament: Michigan failed to take its name off the list of teams to never win a Big Ten regular season title, but the Wolverines are still one of, if not the most, talented teams in the country. Even though they missed out on the first-round bye and could have to travel for a championship game, the Wolverines are still a strong pick.
Why they won’t: Erik Portillo has been very good this year, but there’s been games where Michigan has forced him to be very good. Notre Dame showed last weekend that Michigan is a beatable team when you can frustrate its offense. The same can be said for most teams, but playoffs tend to bring closer and lower-scoring games that don’t exactly suit Michigan’s style of play.
Michigan State
Why the Spartans will win the tournament: Anything can happen, right? With the 50th-ranked offense in the country, Michigan State probably isn’t going to outgun anyone at this point. Both Drew DeRidder and Pierce Charleson have played well at points this season in goal, so for Michigan State to shock the college hockey world whoever is in net will probably have to steal four games.
Why they won’t: The Spartans may have won their last game, but they dropped the 13 before that. It’s possible for an underdog to catch fire in a win-or-go-home tournament, but to get to that stage Michigan state needs to take two of three games from Michigan on the road. The Wolverines blew out MSU in three of the four contests between the two this season, winning 7-2, 3-2, 6-2 and 7-3.
Minnesota
Why the Gophers will win the tournament: Minnesota manufactured an eight-game winning streak to end the regular season, so the Gophers definitely deserve the first-round bye. After splitting most of their series in the first half of the season the Gophers seemed to have found another gear in the second half and are truly playing their best hockey at the most opportune time of the season.
Why they won’t: Justen Close has been more than solid for the Gophers since taking over when Jack LaFontaine departed, but will that continue when teams get their second look at the junior goaltender? With video from 14 starts now out there for opponents to view, opponents may be able to able to spot a few different ways to potentially beat Minnesota’s new starter.
Notre Dame
Why the Fighting Irish will win the tournament: There’s been a blip here and there, but Notre Dame has been one of the stronger teams in the conference and country in the second half. The Irish capped things off by denying Michigan a conference title last weekend. Notre Dame has always posted solid defensive numbers but the addition of a top-10 offense this year has added another element to its game.
Why they won’t: Those blips can’t happen in a tournament. Losses to RIT, Niagara, Michigan State and Wisconsin show that Notre Dame can have some off nights. For their success against Michigan this year, going 4-0, the Irish struggled with Minnesota and went 1-3 against the Gophers.
Ohio State
Why the Buckeyes will win the tournament: Ohio State might be better than the team that dropped its final four games. Finishing fourth might seem like a letdown after being near the top not that long ago, but the Buckeyes still over-achieved this season. If they were able to get healthy and regroup during the off week, I don’t think anyone would be surprised to see Ohio State win the tournament.
Why they won’t: The Buckeyes might just be the team that dropped their final four game. Sitting 13th in the Pairwise and needing to win more games to get into a NCAA tournament position could weigh on a team that’s on the younger side, too.
Penn State
Why the Nittany Lions will win the tournament: The season obviously didn’t go as planned for Penn State, but it can still point to some impressive wins over North Dakota and Minnesota. Confidence is a funny thing and with a team that likes to get up and down the ice, a little bit of success could snowball into something bigger.
Why they won’t: It’s a tall order for Penn State and, looking back at the regular season, there’s not a lot of reason for hope. Ohio State went 3-0-1 against the Nittany Lions this year and outscored them 17-5 in those contests. If PSU does get past the Buckeyes the likely opponents would be Minnesota, Michigan or Notre Dame, who it went 1-11 against this year.
Wisconsin
Why the Badgers will win the tournament: There’s a few key names missing, but there’s still a lot of players on this team that won the Big Ten regular season crown last year and made it to the conference tournament championship game. Experience doesn’t necessarily mean that they have a shot at making another run this year, but it’s something.
Why they won’t: You shouldn’t base an entire perception of a team off its most recent performance, but the Badgers didn’t look like a team that was primed for any sort of playoff run last weekend in Minneapolis.
