Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men’s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
Jim: Paula, we’re in the home stretch and right now I’m looking at a few teams that are on the wrong side of the NCAA bubble but are playing well enough right now that I don’t think – should these teams make the tournament – would be really tough outs.
First, there’s Harvard. The Crimson clinched their Ivy League title on Saturday, something that might not mean a lot to anyone. But they also beat Quinnipiac, a team that’s as strong as anyone nationally. Mitchell Gibson made 39 saves in the win and 6-1-1 in his last eight with two shutouts.
Another is Connecticut, which technically is on the right side of the PairWise bubble in 15th (by .0001 RPI percentage points ahead of UMass Lowell). The Huskies are 8-2-0 in the last 10, their only two losses coming to Quinnipiac and Massachusetts. In that stretch, the Huskies beat Merrimack and Providence when each were nationally ranked, and this past Saturday beat UMass on the road to earn a weekend split with the Minutemen.
These two teams will need to do a lot of work to earn an NCAA bid (heck, Harvard might have to win the ECAC tournament and, minimally, must reach the title game). But they’re both getting hot at the right time.
When you look at the PairWise, is there another team that you see who is playing well enough that you think they can play their way into the NCAA field?
Paula: Great question, Jimmy. Don’t you just love this time of year?
A bubble team that I’ve been keen on all season is Clarkson. Until they lost to Cornell Saturday night, the Golden Knights had been riding an 11-game unbeaten streak that included an impressive 3-1 home win over Quinnipiac in which Clarkson never trailed.
In the first half of the season, they tied with both Quinnipiac and Cornell and split with Michigan Tech. Their offense is okay and more than adequate when they play great defensive hockey. The only way they can play their way into the NCAA tournament is by taking the ECAC playoff title, but I do think that’s a possibility – and when they’re in a one-and-done field, I think they can advance.
There are several other teams on the bubble that I can see taking a conference playoff championship. Merrimack has had a solid second half with respectable wins over teams higher in the PWR than they are. A few weeks ago, the Warriors weren’t even on my radar.
And a few weeks ago, I thought Omaha had played itself out of every possibility when the Mavericks were floundering following their solid first half, but two lopsided wins over St. Cloud this past weekend may give them confidence they need – if they can pick up some momentum against Denver and North Dakota in their final series, which is a tall order.
Looking at teams technically in the field right now though, Jimmy, I see a couple of good teams that may play themselves right out of the NCAA tournament. Ohio State has been solid this season but ended the regular season with four straight losses against two of the best teams in the country, Michigan and Minnesota.
A smidge below the Buckeyes in the PWR is Boston University, but unlike Ohio State, the Terriers seem to be building on their second-half success as the end of the regular season approaches.
Do you see teams that have a capacity to play themselves out of the NCAA tournament?
Jim: Ohio State remains above the bubble in the PairWise and, yes they faltered down the stretch losing their last four regular season games and their regular season is now complete, but it may be difficult to see them fall further. The Buckeyes only have the potential for one more loss, which could doom them if it comes to, say, Penn State. But one postseason win could be enough to cement their NCAA position.
As for BU, I only see them headed up. The Terriers were 43rd in the PairWise on December 1. A 13-1-1 mark since that time has brought the Terriers above the bubble, seemingly an impossible move when December arrived. But now the Terriers have to complete the task. Two games against rival Boston College, admittedly on a down year but still talented, and two games at Maine, arguably the best last bottom-of-the-pack team in any conference at this point all become critical. Four wins in these games won’t help the Terriers. But a loss in any of these four could be devastating to their NCAA tournament hopes.
When you were talking about Omaha, you mentioned their upcoming series against North Dakota. What do you make of the Fighting Hawks? Personally, I live the resolve this team has shown despite injuries. And last weekend’s road sweep of Minnesota Duluth really opened my eyes. Might the Fighting Hawks be the dangerous postseason team not enough people are speaking about?
Paula: North Dakota has been super strong since the end of January, going 6-1-1 in their last eight games with the only loss in overtime to Omaha. The Fighting Hawks’ road sweep of Minnesota Duluth this past weekend had a lot to make North Dakota fans happy.
In Friday’s game, the Fighting Hawks outscored the Bulldogs 2-0 in the second period in spite of being outshot by Duluth 13-7 in that stanza. In fact, North Dakota led 3-1 after two periods in that game even though the Bulldogs outshot them 27-12 through the first 40 minutes.
They were ahead 3-1 after two on Saturday, too, but in a very different game. By the end of Saturday’s 3-2 win, the Fighting Hawks had been outshot by the Bulldogs 35-29, which included Duluth’s 19-shot third period.
The Fighting Hawks scored three power-play goals Friday and the game winner on Saturday was scored short-handed. Seven different players accounted for North Dakota’s seven goals on the weekend.
The Fighting Hawks aren’t impressive in terms of team statistics, but they appear to be peaking at the right time – and we know how important that can be when it comes to post-season play. And now with two weeks remaining in regular-season play, the Fighting Hawks are a point ahead of Denver in the NCHC standings.
Circling back, though, Jimmy, who do you see without that magic mo? Which bubble teams – or just-above-the-bubble-teams – run the chance of taking themselves out of contention?
And to piggyback on that, can we make a distinction between teams that are teetering because of their own play and teams that are doing reasonably well but who may find themselves victimized by their stronger competition?
Jim: As much as I try to stay positive, if I’m forced to have concerns about a potential team inside the bubble, it’s Michigan Tech. A 4-0 loss to Bowling Green two weekends ago and then a 5-5 tie against Ferris State on Saturday when the Huskies fell behind, 4-2, concerns me. I still have Michigan Tech better than 80 percent to make the NCAA field, but also recall that my math had UMass Lowell above 80 percent three weeks ago and the River Hawks are now closer to 27 percent after a few losses.
This is the time of year where the math geek comes out of me. But this season, there doesn’t feel like there is as much math. The reality is that almost every team that isn’t above the current cut line for the NCAA tournament has a ton of work to do if they hope to be an at-large. And more so, these teams likely have to win their conference tournaments. It doesn’t take away the stress of most of the coaches inside the current cut line, but am I the only one feeling like there isn’t as much suspense as we head toward the end of the regular season?
Paula: There is very little about this season that has felt suspenseful to me in the last little bit, with notable exceptions regarding how Michigan and Minnesota would prevail and Boston University’s remarkable climb. We’ve seen top teams remain relatively consistent for a lot of the second half. I wouldn’t call the NCAA field completely predictable, but the end of this season does feel less tumultuous this year.
I am eager to see how conferences will play out. I love the regular-season title races. Congratulations to both American International and Minnesota State for winning their regular-season championships. The Big Ten, the ECAC, Hockey East and the NCHC are heading for photo finishes, and I am here for it.
More than anything else, though, I love conference playoffs hockey. To me, that playoff championship game is as exciting as a national tournament. So difficult to win, so intense – and a ticket punched to the NCAA tournament, no matter where you finished in the regular season.
There is no math geek in me to consult so I’m not looking at numbers as the season ends so much as trends. Michigan Tech is a concern. North Dakota seems to be coasting. Of course, the numbers determine the field in the end, but there is hockey to be played until we get there. Every coach wants his team to be playing its best hockey as winter wanes. Numbers determine the field. Playing determines the numbers.
