So here we are in the middle of January. Somehow it feels like the COVID surge that has postponed and canceled many games is in back of us, fingers crossed.
And as we creep towards the end of the season, we have an interesting weekend where five different games or two-game series feature nationally-ranked clubs battling one another.
It should be no surprise, then, that most of the odds are pretty tight. The largest favorite for the quintet of games is Michigan (-160) against a Minnesota (+130) team without an established goaltender. After that, it’s Massachusetts (-155) which is home against Northeastern (+130). This feels like a game where the bookmakers are looking entirely at stats, particularly one – since the first weekend of the season when the Minutemen were swept by Minnesota State, UMass is 6-1-0 at home, that single loss coming in overtime against Boston University.
The reality is that all five of these games are as close to pick ’em as you can find. Not a lot separates the quintet, which might make bettors look at other odds. Right now, you can find that the average over/under on these games is around 6, many coming it at 5.5. If you’re an experienced gambler, the over/under can feel like a more comfortable bet given that the return is an even-money line (-110 with juice). Thus, if you have a feel from any games, think about that over/under bet as opposed to straight money line odds.
Last week was a little strange with two of the five original games postponed. Then the three remaining games were won by the favorite. Thus a $100 parlay on the money line wasn’t profitable – worth just $307.37. A payout like that makes it more attractive to keep your money in your pocket.
This week has a little more potential.
On to this week.
You can make your selections on the games listed below as well as others in USCHO Pick ‘Em. Go to social.uscho.com to join the fun!
As usual, a disclaimer:
Understand, this is for entertainment purposes only. USCHO.com is not a licensed gambling platform and no money may be wagered through this site or any subsidiary of USCHO.
All games are the first games when they occur in a two-game series, unless noted. Saturday game as marked appropriately.
Enjoy and, if you bet, may you be successful.
* Games marked with asterisks indicates odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
No. 3 Michigan (-160) at No. 11 Minnesota (+130) *
Before Minnesota goaltender Jack LaFontaine singed with the Carolina Hurricanes, I had this game as a slight favorite for the host Gophers. But when you have questions in goal, the books with notice and last Saturday’s 3-2 loss against Alaska certainly raised the eyebrows of the sharps.
Would be a shock to see Minnesota win? Heck no. There’s plenty of talent of both sides of the puck so if you take the pressure off your netminder and find a way to score, a 2-1 or 3-2 victory isn’t unheard of.
But bookmakers won’t take that into consideration. It means that if you believe in the Gophers you get a great price. But if you’re taking the expected pick (the USCHO staff was unanimous), your profit will be cut.
No. 17 Michigan Tech (-130) at No. 18 Northern Michigan (+110) * SERIES POSTPONED DUE TO COVID
This was originally scheduled for Friday and Saturday but has been pushed back a day because of COVID. I doubt that will force the bookmakers to change their lines, unless they have some inside information on what protocols might do to either lineup.
As discussed last week, if you’re able to understand the variables associated with players potentially missing games due to COVID, you could have an edge.
Northern Michigan certainly raised eyebrows last weekend with their win over Minnesota State. This team also beat a shorthanded Minnesota Duluth club twice, so there’s reason to like the Wildcats. But Michigan Tech is securely inside the PairWise bubble at this point and certainly makes them a legitimate favorite.
No. 12 Northeastern (+130) at No. 14 Massachusetts (-155) *
This may be the ultimate matchup of the weekend pitting a sound, solid UMass offense against the guy who is trying to set every major goaltending record in college hockey history.
Devon Levi is tops in save percentage (.955), third in goals against (1.31), third in wins (16) and first in shutouts (9). One caveat for Northeastern fans, though, is that Levi’s days are numbered before he has to leave for the Olympics as he represents Canada in Beijing.
Thus, there may be a sense of urgency for the Huskies this weekend, something as gamblers that should be taken into consideration.
But UMass hasn’t lost in regulation at home since the opening weekend of the season and may be a little hungry themselves, having lost its last two games at Michigan on January 8-9.
No. 9 North Dakota (+115) at No. 4 Western Michigan (-140) *
It’s not often that North Dakota finds itself an underdog in the NCHC, but the first-place Fighting Hawks are slight underdog traveling to fourth-place Western Michigan. If that doesn’t tell the story of the NCHC’s parity, nothing does.
For Western Michigan, there will be some significant rust to shake off, having not played since December 29. And bookmakers might not know that historically the Broncos have struggled against North Dakota with just seven victories in the 32 all-time meetings.
But that’s history that sportsbooks don’t care about. North Dakota has been inconsistent this season and Western Michigan has won eight of their last nine games. So as much as history can play a role in setting a line, sometimes the bookmakers like to keep it simple and favor the team that makes the most sense.
No. 1 Quinnipiac (-150) at No. 8 Cornell (+125) * SATURDAY
Since Quinnipiac goaltender Yaniv Perets surrendered a goal to Boston College in the first minute of his collegiate debut, he’s allowed just nine goals in 807-plus minutes. So when we talk above about Devon Levi being a record breaker, let’s not forget about Perets.
That said, one major difference in the number of shots Perets is seeing per game. Quinnipiac averages 16.2 shots against per game, compared to 29.3 per game allowed by Northeastern. So if you’re not hearing as much about Perets as you do about Levi, that might have something to do with it.
As for this matchup, Cornell probably feels rejuvenated after a two-game road sweep at North Dakota followed by a 3-0 win at Yale. This single game against Quinnipiac, though, could be most important to Cornell’s NCAA hopes. Ranked 28th in the PairWise after a sweep at the hands of Arizona State, Cornell bounced back after the two wins at North Dakota and sits 13th. A single win against Quinnipiac could almost cement Cornell’s NCAA hopes.
The message here, both teams have plenty to play for. Wager wisely.
Pick records to date (last week):
Jim Connelly – 39-18 (2-1)
Chris Lerch – 36-21 (3-0)
Dan Rubin – 34-23 (2-1)
Ed Trefzger – 35-22 (3-0)
Paula Weston – 32-25 (2-1)
Matthew Semisch – 34-23 (3-0)
Drew Claussen – 34-23 (3-0)
John Doyle – 31-26 (2-1)
Jack Hittinger – 29-28 (1-2)
Nate Owen – 26-31 (2-1)
