I’ve said if before but can only say it again: gambling really can humble you.
Last week, the collective record for all 10 writers on the USCHO staff was 20-30, with no one posting better than a 3-2 week. Had we as a group all head to the sportsbooks last Friday, we’d have made a nice collective donation.
But we also have to wonder if we ever learn our lessons. Take Michigan, for example. Last Friday, 9 of the 10 writers bet Michigan against Minnesota only to watch the Wolverines lose, 5-1. Michigan now has five losses on the year, four have come on Friday. Paula Weston was the only person to pick Minnesota (something she happily highlighted on her social media account).
Here we are one week later. The opponent has changed but nine of the 10 writers again picked Michigan on Friday night. Paula again is the only outlier. Who is betting the trend here?
This is a bit of an odd week as four of the five games have lines set by DraftKings. The one that is missing from their board – arguably the best rivalry in college hockey – Boston College and Boston University. I guess that’s more a sign of the struggles for the two teams that the books won’t even tough that game.
And, of course, for the record a five-team parlay on last week’s games would have paid $2,931.23 on a $100 bet. And it would’ve been more if Cornell didn’t blow a four-goal lead late in the third, losing to Clarkson in a shootout.
Note: With the limited number of games over the next two weekends, Bettor’s Edge will take a short break. We’ll return around New Year’s Eve.
On to this week.
You can make your selections on the five games listed below as well as five others in USCHO Pick ‘Em. Go to social.uscho.com to join the fun!
As usual, a disclaimer:
Understand, this is for entertainment purposes only. USCHO.com is not a licensed gambling platform and no money may be wagered through this site or any subsidiary of USCHO.
All games are the first games when they occur in a two-game series, unless noted. Saturday game as marked appropriately.
Enjoy and, if you bet, may you be successful.
* Games marked with asterisks indicates odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
No. 3 Michigan (-225) at No. 17 Ohio State (+180)*
Mentioned back in the open, Michigan has not been a good team in the first game of a two-game series. But one area the Wolverines have been excellent this season is playing away from Yost. They are a perfect 6-0-0 in games away from home, so that’s a good sign.
Ohio State might be the most pleasant surprise in the Big Ten this season, picked last by the coaches but now sitting in third. But playing Michigan has never been a good thing.
The Wolverines have won five of the last season against the Buckeyes and went 3-1-0 last season, though the one win for OSU came in Columbus
No. 1 Minnesota State (-250) at Bemidji State (+200)*
Somehow, Minnesota State slipped under our radar for a while now, at least since the beginning of the year when they played a Murderer’s Row of opponents in Massachusetts, St. Cloud State, Michigan and Providence – all four top 10 teams at the time.
But even quietly, Minnesota State has been on a healthy run, losing just twice since October 17. It certainly helped them nationally as voters put the Mavericks back atop the USCHO.com poll on Monday.
The question, now, is whether that will be a curse as it has for so many teams this season. And with Bemidji State as the next opponent, a loss this weekend wouldn’t be surprising. While Minnesota State won the season series, 3-2-1, a year ago, it was Bemidji who went 2-1-1 in the last four contests.
Boston College (-145) at Boston University (+120)
It’s rare that Boston College and Boston University can take the ice with neither team nationally-ranked, but that’s what happened as BC fell out of the top 20 this past Monday.
It’s been a bit of a strange season for both clubs. Boston University was decimated by injuries early but have played well – including a sweep of New Hampshire last weekend – as they’ve gotten bodies back.
Boston College has plenty of new faces, though are a bit older this season having dipped heavily into the transfer portal to fill some key holes left by NHL departures.
Friday is the 285th meeting of these two teams, though BC holds a 4-1-1 mark in the last six and 5-3-2 in the last 10. More importantly, BC is 5-1-1 on the road against their rival.
No. 11 Denver (+140) at No. 5 Minnesota Duluth (-170)*
This series might be the sign that sportsbooks are paying more attention to college hockey than I once thought.
Typically, if a team entered a series on a six-game heater as Denver is and are facing an opponent that dropped its last two games, you would expect a line that heavily favors the hotter team.
That’s not the case here, which tells me that the book makers are paying attention. Minnesota Duluth may have lost twice last weekend at Northern Michigan. But they did so with their third-string graduate goaltender after Ryan Fanti was placed in COVID protocols and was unavailable.
With Fanti expected to play this weekend, the book makers are making Minnesota Duluth a pretty strong favorite factoring in both home ice and the desire to get back on track.
Honestly, I’d book this one closer to a pick ’em. But that’s why I’m not fronting my own money.
No. 14 Omaha (+185) at No. 4 Western Michigan (-230)*
One of the strongest favorites in the five games we are handicapping here is Western Michigan. And don’t be surprised if the PairWise is factoring into this.
We’re at the point in the season where book makers are beginning to really pay attention to the PairWise (it could also be a reason that Minnesota Duluth is such a strong favorite). Book makers love computers and numbers, and the PairWise, even as imperfect a ranking as it is at this point in the season, is still a numbers source.
With Western Michigan top-ranked in the PairWise right now and Omaha all the way down at 18th, it seems the computers are having some influence on this game. Though the Broncos have won six straight including a sweep of St. Cloud State over that span.
Omaha is coming off a loss to Colorado College, but that ended a four-game winning streak for the Mavericks.
Omaha (+185) might be the best value bet on the board this weekend.
Pick records to date (last week):
Jim Connelly – 31-14 (3-2)
Ed Trefzger – 28-17 (3-2)
Paula Weston – 27-18 (3-2)
Dan Rubin – 26-19 (1-4)
Chris Lerch – 26-19 (1-4)
Matthew Semisch – 26-19 (2-3)
Drew Claussen – 25-20 (1-4)
John Doyle – 23-22 (2-3)
Jack Hittinger – 23-22 (3-2)
Nate Owen – 20-25 (1-4)
