We promised it last week, that in this week’s Bracketology, Jayson and I would try to find some sort of agreement on a field, just like being on the NCAA committee.
If we’re able to do that (spoiler: we’re not), we’ll attempt to put together what we think the regionals should look like.
As mentioned in the previous two editions, at-large selection of teams will change. Based on the extremely limited amount of inter-conference play, it is very difficult to compare one league to another and thus, one team to another.
The NCAA has attempted to clarify the process. In a memo from the NCAA that was issued on February 16, it states:
“Due to the limited number of inter-conference games played this year, the committee has determined that the statistical value of the PairWise and RPI is not what it is in a typical year. As a result, the committee will not be using a strict PairWise comparisons as the sole determinant for at-large selection and seeding. However, the various criteria that have made up the PairWise and the RPI will be the primary basis for consideration by the committee in its selection and seeding process.
The criteria include:
• Won/Loss Record
• Strength of Schedule
• Head-to-Head Results
• Results vs. Common Opponents
• Quality Wins
• Home/Away Weighting
Due to the unusual nature of this year’s selection process, the committee will institute the use of two regional advisory committees comprised of six members each. Three national committee members from each region, as well as additional coach from each conference in the region, will serve on the regional advisory committees. The representatives were provided to the committee based on recommendations from the conference commissioners. These committees will assist in the observation and evaluation of teams and provide recommendations to the national committee.”
Let’s attempt to translate.
Basically, the PairWise, as we all know it can be thrown out. But the criteria used to establish the PairWise can and will be used to rank teams, particularly within each conference. From there, though, there will be an “eye test” provided by two regional committees that will help the six-member NCAA committee select the field.
Thus, in this year’s Brackteology, Jim Connelly and Jayson Moy will work each week to give their best guesses based on games played to date, which teams should qualify for the 16-team field.
Jim: For me, Jayson, not a ton has changed in the last week. Maybe some teams like Michigan and Omaha have made me feel better about their at-large bids with wins over Minnesota and North Dakota, respectively. But there hasn’t been much that would change my mind on my approach. Now let’s see if I can convince you that this is the best approach.
Once again, I’m ranking the conferences in order of strength. This is done simply with an eye test. I have watched plenty of hockey this season, just as the committee members have. And because of that, I’ve ranked the conferences as follows.
Tier I: NCHC
Tier II: Hockey East, Big Ten
Tier III: ECAC
Tier IV: WCHA, Atlantic Hockey
From here, I’ve created a list of “locks,” teams that, should there not be major upsets in conference tournaments, these are the teams I believe should be in the tournament, regardless. I will list them in each conference, in order of strongest to weakest. That might help give some guidance to rankings when we need to determine bands for each team.
NCHC: North Dakota, St. Cloud State, Minnesota Duluth, Omaha
Hockey East: Boston College, Boston University, Massachusetts
B1G: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan
ECAC: Quinnipiac
AHA: AIC
WCHA: Minnesota State, Bowling Green
Right now, I’ve accounted for 14 of 16 spots. Pretty consistent with last week.
Now, I’ve got to find a way to fill two additional spots. I’m going to create a bubble based on records and results to date.
These are the teams I have on my bubble, in alphabetical order: Bemidji State, Clarkson, Connecticut, Lake Superior and Notre Dame.
Now we have some really difficult decisions. To help, I’m going to list each teams record against my 14 lock teams:
Bemidji State: 5-3-0
Clarkson: 2-2-2
Connecticut: 1-4-2
Lake Superior: 2-2-0
Notre Dame: 4-7-1
I’m not sure how much this helped, but it does show me that UConn, right now at least, is a team I want to eliminate with just a single win in seven attempts against Hockey East’s top three teams.
Conversely, I’m impressed enough by Bemidji State’s performances that I am ready to given them the 15th spot.
That leaves me with Notre Dame, Clarkson and Lake Superior. Notre Dame has the most wins against the top 3 teams in the Big Ten, but also had the most opportunities. The other two – Clarkson and Lake Superior – are pretty similar.
So I’m going back to my rankings of leagues and, with these three teams somewhat similar, I’m going with Notre Dame.
That leaves me with these 16 teams (I’m putting them in order of what I perceive are strongest to weakest):
North Dakota
Boston College
Wisconsin
Minnesota State
St. Cloud State
Minnesota
Quinnipiac
Michigan
Boston University
Minnesota Duluth
UMass
Bowling Green
Omaha
AIC
Notre Dame
Bemidji State
So Jayson, I’ll turn it over to you. Agree? Or better said, anything you strongly disagree with?
Jayson: I think that we are in agreement on 13 of your lock teams. The one that I am not sold is without a doubt Omaha.
One win over North Dakota doesn’t do it for me. The reason? This year Omaha was 2-4 against North Dakota, the two wins being one goal wins and one in overtime. Diving deeper, it was 1-1 against St. Cloud State and 0-1-1 against Minnesota-Duluth. That’s a total of 3-6-1 against the top three teams that are locks. Not good enough in my eyes.
So I would lump Omaha into the under consideration group.
In my group of consideration for the final three spots, I would say that it contains the following teams.
I would not discount Robert Morris and Army. Robert Morris was the winner of the Western pod in Atlantic Hockey. Yes, AIC is the class of the AHA this year, but I think both Army and Robert Morris deserve consideration.
In the Big Ten, I am not sold on Notre Dame being under consideration. 2-5-1 against the top two (Wisconsin, Minnesota) and 2-2 against Michigan. Michigan was 4-4 against Wisconsin and Minnesota. But, I will leave Notre Dame in the mix as well.
In the ECAC, yes, I would leave Clarkson in the mix at 2-2-2 against Quinnipiac, the top team in the conference.
You have UConn in the mix, but I will counter and say that if Providence beats UConn in the Hockey East Quarters, then Providence is under consideration instead of UConn.
In the NCHC, as we mentioned, Omaha deserves consideration. But to me, a loss to Denver in the quarterfinal will eliminate it.
In the WCHA, I would consider Lake Superior and Bemidji State. Lake Superior is tough to determine because it has only played Minnesota State and Bowling Green to a 2-2 record, whereas Bemidji State has played them to a 5-3 record.
So my bubble for three spots is:
Army
Robert Morris
Notre Dame
Clarkson
UConn/Providence
Omaha
Bemidji State
Lake Superior
Jim, as you have done, I want to place some sort of ranking on the teams. Based on my analysis above, the most precarious teams on this list are Army, Robert Morris, UConn/Providence, Lake Superior.
I am ready to say that if these teams don’t advance to a Championship Game, I am ready to eliminate them.
The same can’t be said for Clarkson, Notre Dame, Omaha and Bemidji State.
Four teams for three spots.
I will come back to my method previously.
Record against the top teams in order to break ties.
Clarkson (2-2-2 against Quinnipiac)
Notre Dame (0-3-1 against Wisconsin)
Omaha (2-4-0 against North Dakota)
Bemidji State (2-3-1 against Minnesota State)
Based on this, I eliminate Notre Dame.
My field:
AIC
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan
Quinnipiac
Clarkson
Boston College
Boston University
Massachusetts
North Dakota
St. Cloud State
Minnesota-Duluth
Omaha
Minnesota State
Bowling Green
Bemidji State
Now, let me take a crack at Bracketing the tournament.
Our regional sites this year:
Bridgeport, Conn.
Albany, N.Y.
Fargo, N.D.
Loveland, Colo.
We will keep in mind that the NCAA will limit travel because of safety precautions, etc.
But first, we’ll select the top seeds.
I agree with Jim that the top four teams are:
North Dakota
Boston College
Wisconsin
Minnesota State
I will also agree with Jim on most of the next four selections, except I would replace Michigan with Boston University
St Cloud State
Minnesota
Quinnipiac
Boston University
My next four selections would be
Michigan
Minnesota Duluth
Massachusetts
Bowling Green
My final four selections would be
Bemidji State
Omaha
AIC
Clarkson
I am going to place the No. 1 seeds as we previously have done in the past – closest to home.
Fargo – North Dakota
Bridgeport – Boston College
Albany – Wisconsin
Loveland – Minnesota State
I will keep the theme going for the other bands
Fargo – Minnesota
Bridgeport – Quinnipiac
Albany – Boston University
Loveland – St Cloud State
The third band
Fargo – Minnesota-Duluth
Bridgeport – Massachusetts
Albany – Bowling Green
Loveland – Michigan
The fourth band
Fargo – Bemidji State
Bridgeport – AIC
Albany – Clarkson
Loveland – Omaha
Let’s put the bracket together
Fargo Regional
Bemidji State vs. North Dakota
Minnesota Duluth vs. Minnesota
Bridgeport Regional
AIC vs. Boston College
Massachusetts vs. Quinnipiac
Albany Regional
Clarkson vs. Wisconsin
Bowling Green vs. Boston University
Loveland Regional
Omaha vs. Minnesota State
Michigan vs. St. Cloud State
And there you have it. No intra-conference matchups to be seen.
What do you think about these brackets Jim?
Jim: Well, you just made this seem a lot simpler than I thought possible. But, as you say, we have some disagreements for the final few spots. So let’s see what happens when I take my 16 teams.
My top four teams:
North Dakota
Boston College
Wisconsin
Minnesota State
My second-band teams:
St. Cloud State
Minnesota
Quinnipiac
Michigan
My third-band teams:
Boston University
Minnesota Duluth
UMass
Bowling Green
My fourth-band teams:
Omaha
AIC
Notre Dame
Bemidji State
With four western teams in the top band, there’s going to be some air travel, regardless. For top seeds, I’ll put:
Top seeds:
Fargo: North Dakota
Bridgeport: Boston College
Loveland: Minnesota State
Albany: Wisconsin
Second seeds:
Fargo: St. Cloud State
Bridgeport: Michigan
Loveland: Minnesota
Albany: Quinnipiac
Third seeds:
Fargo: Minnesota Duluth
Bridgeport: Boston University
Loveland: Bowling Green
Albany: UMass
Fourth seeds:
Fargo: Bemidji State
Bridgeport: Notre Dame
Loveland: Omaha
Albany: AIC
That leaves me:
Fargo Regional
North Dakota vs. Bemidji State
St. Cloud State vs. Minnesota Duluth
Bridgeport Regional
Boston College vs. Notre Dame
Boston University vs. Michigan
Loveland Regional
Minnesota State vs. Omaha
Minnesota vs. Bowling Green
Albany Regional
Wisconsin vs. AIC
Quinnipiac vs. UMass
We do have an issue with Fargo as St. Cloud State and Minnesota Duluth can’t face one another. But a quick switch of Minnesota Duluth and Bowling Green (yes, that means putting the Bulldogs on a plane as opposed to a bus), should work.
Thus, this week’s final brackets
Jayson’s bracket:
Fargo Regional
Bemidji State vs. North Dakota
Minnesota Duluth vs. Minnesota
Bridgeport Regional
AIC vs. Boston College
Massachusetts vs. Quinnipiac
Albany Regional
Clarkson vs Wisconsin
Bowling Green vs. Boston University
Loveland Regional
Omaha vs. Minnesota State
Michigan vs. St. Cloud State
Jim’s bracket:
Fargo Regional
North Dakota vs. Bemidji State
St. Cloud State vs. Bowling Green
Bridgeport Regional
Boston College vs. Notre Dame
Boston University vs. Michigan
Loveland Regional
Minnesota State vs. Omaha
Minnesota vs. Minnesota Duluth
Albany Regional
Wisconsin vs. AIC
Quinnipiac vs. UMass
Last four in:
Jim: Omaha, AIC, Notre Dame, Bemidji State
Jayson: Bemidji State, AIC, Clarkson, Omaha
First four out:
Jim: Clarkson, UConn, Lake Superior, Providence
Jayson: Notre Dame, Lake Superior, UConn, Robert Morris
