After Saturday night’s games, I predicted this bracket for the NCAA tournament:
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Ohio State vs. 8 Denver
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Bowling Green vs. 2 Minnesota Duluth
10 Arizona State vs. 7 Quinnipiac
East Regional (Providence):
14 Providence vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 6 Northeastern
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Harvard vs. 4 Massachusetts
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Clarkson
Now that there is so much time until the actual bracket is announced, we start to do what we all do best — overanalyze our bracket prediction.
This bracket is just too perfectly laid out. It makes perfect sense, doesn’t it?
So why don’t we overanalyze a little bit and think about some of the debates that may be happening among the committee members.
Ohio State
There can be a good debate made about moving Ohio State to Allentown for a number of reasons. Some say that a move by Ohio State to Allentown would help attendance since it is closer to the Ohio State campus than Fargo is and Arizona State would not be much help to the attendance in Allentown.
There is some merit in this, as we can put the two Ohio teams in the same bracket — the bracket which is closest to Ohio.
So swapping a 9 and a 10 might not be that much of a stretch.
What else leads to this possible debate?
How about the fact that Penn State is the host of the Allentown regional and perhaps, just perhaps, the NCAA wants a Big Ten school at a regional that the Big Ten hosts?
If you look at it, Fargo has St. Cloud State and Denver. Providence has Cornell and Manchester has Massachusetts.
So just perhaps this could be a factor.
Yes, I am overanalyzing with this point.
Massachusetts’ regional
How about the fact that Massachusetts is closer to Providence than Manchester (86 vs. 111 miles)? So why does everyone assume that Massachusetts is going to Manchester?
This all leads into the fact that Providence would be in Providence — it only makes sense — and if Massachusetts is in Providence, then Providence can’t play in Providence.
OK, but what if that’s not a factor?
Wouldn’t having the following bracket be just as appealing as the other way around — with the exception of Providence not being in Providence?
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
14 Providence vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 6 Northeastern
East Regional (Providence):
13 Harvard vs. 4 Massachusetts
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Clarkson
Swapping the 2 vs. 3 matchups in the East and Northeast
There is also some argument that Northeastern should be in Manchester rather than in Providence.
So there could be debate that the bracket could look like this:
East Regional (Providence):
14 Providence vs. 3 Minnesota State
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Clarkson
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Harvard vs. 4 Massachusetts
11 Cornell vs. 6 Northeastern
Does it make sense? I suppose it does, but what does it really gain you?
Northeastern is just as close to Providence as it is Manchester (51 vs. 53 miles).
So does it really make sense? Not to me. And don’t forget: Clarkson is closer to Manchester than Providence. Therefore a higher seed should have some priority, right?
In the end
You can think and think about it all you want, but I don’t see what we need to steer away from the perfect bracket integrity that we have at the moment.
If the committee does go away from it, I can only really see the Ohio State and Arizona State swap being one that makes some sense.
