It’s time for the final Bracketology of the season. Here, I will predict how I think the NCAA Ice Hockey Committee will think and what the bracket will look like when it is announced at 7 p.m. EDT Sunday on ESPNU.
First, here is my predicted bracket and then I’ll explain how I got there afterwards:
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Ohio State vs. 8 Denver
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Bowling Green vs. 2 Minnesota Duluth
10 Arizona State vs. 7 Quinnipiac
East Regional (Providence):
14 Providence vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 6 Northeastern
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Harvard vs. 4 Massachusetts
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Clarkson
Here is the final top 16 of the final PairWise Rankings (PWR) and the autobids not in the Top 16:
Autobids:
Atlantic Hockey: American International
Big Ten: Notre Dame
ECAC Hockey: Clarkson
Hockey East: Northeastern
NCHC: Minnesota Duluth
WCHA: Minnesota State
1t St. Cloud State
1t Minnesota Duluth
3 Minnesota State
4 Massachusetts
5 Clarkson
6 Northeastern
7 Quinnipiac
8 Denver
9 Ohio State
10 Arizona State
11 Cornell
12t Notre Dame
12t Harvard
14 Providence
15 Bowling Green
16 Penn State
31t American International
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that is not is American International.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of St. Cloud State and Minnesota Duluth at 1 and Notre Dame and Harvard at 12.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 St. Cloud State
2 Minnesota Duluth
3 Minnesota State
4 Massachusetts
5 Clarkson
6 Northeastern
7 Quinnipiac
8 Denver
9 Ohio State
10 Arizona State
11 Cornell
12 Notre Dame
13 Harvard
14 Providence
15 Bowling Green
16 American International
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: St. Cloud State, Minnesota Duluth, Minnesota State, Massachusetts
No. 2 seeds: Clarkson, Northeastern, Quinnipiac, Denver
No. 3 seeds: Ohio State, Arizona State, Cornell, Notre Dame
No. 4 seeds: Harvard, Providence, Bowling Green, American International
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals according to geography.
No. 1 St. Cloud State is placed in the West Regional in Fargo
No. 2 Minnesota Duluth is placed in the Midwest Regional in Allentown
No. 3 Minnesota State is placed in the East Regional in Providence
No. 4 Massachusetts is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Denver is placed in No. 1 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 7 Quinnipiac is placed in No. 2 Minnesota Duluth’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 6 Northeastern is placed in No. 3 Minnesota State’s regional, the East Regional
No. 5 Clarkson is placed in No. 4 Massachusetts’ regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
No. 9 Ohio State is placed in No. 8 Denver’s regional, the West Regional
No. 10 Arizona State is placed in No. 7 Quinnipiac’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 11 Cornell is placed in No. 6 Northeastern’s regional, the East Regional
No. 12 Notre Dame is placed in No. 5 Clarkson’s regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 American International travels to No. 1 St. Cloud State’s regional, the West Regional
No. 15 Bowling Green travels to No. 2 Minnesota Duluth’s regional, the Midwest Regional
No. 14 Providence travels to No. 3 Minnesota State’s regional, the East Regional
No. 13 Harvard travels to No. 4 Massachusetts’ regional, the Northeast Regional
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Ohio State vs. 8 Denver
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Bowling Green vs. 2 Minnesota Duluth
10 Arizona State vs. 7 Quinnipiac
East Regional (Providence):
14 Providence vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 6 Northeastern
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Harvard vs. 4 Massachusetts
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Clarkson
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have none.
Now that we have solved all intra-conference matchups, let’s look at attendance.
I don’t see anything.
I will stand pat with the perfect bracket and integrity.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
My predicted bracket
West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
9 Ohio State vs. 8 Denver
Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Bowling Green vs. 2 Minnesota Duluth
10 Arizona State vs. 7 Quinnipiac
East Regional (Providence):
14 Providence vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 6 Northeastern
Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Harvard vs. 4 Massachusetts
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Clarkson
Conference breakdowns
ECAC Hockey — 4
Hockey East — 3
NCHC — 3
Big Ten — 2
WCHA — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
Independents — 1
