It’s come down to this: the final week of the 2018-19 Atlantic Hockey regular season.
What began 219 days ago ends on Saturday night.
All but the top (American International) and bottom (Canisius) seeds are still to be decided, which leads to a frantic race to the finish with three teams still in the running for the two remaining byes, and seven looking to lock in the four home ice slots in the first round.
That’s because since the league’s inception, every team in the AHA makes the league’s postseason tournament.
Working out a fair and yet meaningful postseason scheme in an 11-team league is a challenge. Since Connecticut left the conference after the 2013-14 season, Atlantic Hockey has awarded byes to the top five teams, with the bottom six playing first round series. Positions six, seven and eight host nine, 10 and 11.
The surviving teams are re-seeded and visit the top three in the quarterfinals. The fifth seed, while getting a first round bye, goes on the road to the fourth seed.
It’s not ideal, which is why when Notre Dame left Hockey East in 2017, that league tried the same system for a single season and promptly abandoned it. Now the bottom three teams are left out of the post-season.
Would Atlantic Hockey ever follow suit?
“I’ve gone back and forth with it,” said RIT coach Wayne Wilson. “Traditionally, I’ve always been an eight-team person, but with our league, you can get (players) injured at the wrong time and that can make a difference when the difference between last place and first place is minimal.”
And while it’s thought that leaving teams out of the playoffs can make the regular season more meaningful, that’s not always the case.
“With eight teams (making the playoffs), some teams know they’re out and shenanigans can happen,” said Wilson. “Teams in the middle know they’re not going to get home ice, where the middle teams in our league are still playing for home ice. The way our league is structured, everyone is playing for something.”
Here’s the lowdown on the postseason possibilities for all eleven Atlantic Hockey squads. The tiebreakers are as follows:
1. Winning percentage head-to-head.
2. Conference wins.
3. Goal differential in head-to-head competitions.
4. Goals allowed in head-to-head competitions.
5. Winning percentage head-to-head against teams starting with the No. 1 seed down to the No. 11 seed.
6. Goal differential in games against teams starting with the No. 1 seed down to the No. 11 seed.
The race is tight, so expect these to come into play.
American International
Currently: First
Games remaining: Sacred Heart (2)
Clinched: Top seed; first round bye; home ice in quarterfinals
Holds tiebreaker over: Air Force, Army Went Point, Bentley, Canisius, Holy Cross, Mercyhurst, Niagara, Robert Morris
Possible seed: First
Outlook: The Yellow Jackets need a point to win the regular season title outright, and have already locked down the top seed.
Bentley
Currently: Second
Games remaining: at Army West Point (2)
Clinched: First round bye
Holds tiebreaker over: Canisius, Holy Cross, Niagara, RIT, Robert Morris
Possible seed: Second-Fifth
Outlook: The Falcons have a shot at a share of the regular season title if they win out and AIC gets swept.
Air Force
Currently: Tied for third
Games remaining: Holy Cross (2)
Clinched: First round bye
Holds tiebreaker over: Army West Point, Canisius, Niagara, Mercyhurst, RIT, Robert Morris
Possible seed: Second-Fifth
Outlook: The Falcons can finish no lower than fifth, so they have a bye locked up. But they’re shooting for home ice in the quarterfinals.
Rochester Institute of Technology
Currently: Tied for third
Games remaining: at Niagara, Canisius
Clinched: Home ice in the first round
Holds tiebreaker over: AIC, Army West Point, Holy Cross, Niagara, Robert Morris
Possible seed: Second-Sixth
Outlook: The Tigers need a single point to earn a first round bye.
Sacred Heart
Currently: Fifth
Games remaining: at AIC (2)
Clinched: Home ice in the first round
Holds tiebreaker over: Air Force, Army West Point, Holy Cross, Niagara, RIT, Robert Morris
Possible seed: Second-Sixth
Outlook: Like RIT, SHU can gain a bye and home ice, but could also be hosting in the first round.
Mercyhurst
Currently: Sixth
Games remaining: Robert Morris, at Robert Morris
Clinched: Home ice in the first round
Holds tiebreaker over: Bentley, Canisius, Holy Cross, RIT, Sacred Heart
Possible seed: Fourth – Eighth
Outlook: Mercyhurst needs some help to earn a bye, but can do no worse than hosting a first round series.
Niagara
Currently: Seventh
Games remaining: RIT
Clinched: Nothing yet
Holds tiebreaker over: Canisius, Holy Cross, Mercyhurst
Possible seed: Sixth-Ninth
Outlook: The Purple Eagles will be playing in the first round, and the odds are good they they’ll be hosting a series.
Holy Cross
Currently: Tied for eighth
Games remaining: at Air Force (2)
Clinched: Nothing yet
Holds tiebreaker over: Army West Point, Canisius
Possible seed: Seventh-Ninth
Outlook: The Crusaders have about a 50-50 chance of hosting a first-round series.
Army West Point
Currently: Tied for eighth
Games remaining: Bentley (2)
Clinched: Nothing yet
Holds tiebreaker over: Mercyhurst, Niagara, Robert Morris
Possible seed: Seventh-Tenth
Outlook: See Holy Cross.
Robert Morris
Currently: Tenth
Games remaining: at Mercyhurst, Mercyhurst
Clinched: Nothing yet
Holds tiebreaker over: Canisius, Holy Cross, Niagara
Possible seed: Eighth-Tenth
Outlook: The Colonials need some help to finish eighth and host a first-round series. Otherwise they’re on the road.
Canisius
Currently: Eleventh
Games remaining: at RIT
Clinched: 11th
Holds tiebreaker over: Army West Point, Sacred Heart
Possible seed: 11th
Outlook: The Golden Griffins are locked into the 11th seed and will travel to the sixth seed in the first round.
