It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology, college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA tournament will wind up come selection time.
It’s a look into what are the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.
We’ll keep bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced on March 20.
Those of you that are veterans of the college hockey scene know that it is all about the PairWise Rankings. This is USCHO’s numerical approach that simulates the way the NCAA Division I men’s ice hockey committee chooses the teams that make the NCAA tournament.
Since USCHO began the PairWise Rankings, we have correctly identified all of the teams that have been selected to the NCAA tournament.
I am the only prognosticator to have correctly predicted the exact brackets for the NCAA tournament in four of the last five years, meaning that I have predicted how the committee thought when putting together the brackets.
This is not a be-all, end-all analysis of the bracket. I am trying to give you, the reader, an idea of what the committee might be thinking and not exactly what they are thinking.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East — Albany, N.Y.; Northeast — Worcester, Mass.; Midwest — Cincinnati; West — St. Paul, Minn.).
• A host institution that is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host and cannot be moved. There are four host institutions this year: Union in Albany, Holy Cross in Worcester, Miami in Cincinnati and Minnesota in St. Paul.
• Seedings will not be switched. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intraconference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, from the 2016 pre-championship manual:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
1. Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s rankings of 1-16. The top four teams are No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds.
2. Step two is to place the home teams. Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
3. Step three is to fill in the bracket so that first-round conference matchups are avoided, unless it corrupts the integrity of the bracket. If five or more teams from one conference are selected to the championship, then the integrity of the bracket will be protected (i.e., maintaining the pairing process according to seed will take priority over avoidance of first-round conference matchups). To complete each regional, the committee assigns one team from each of the remaining seeded groups so there is a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed at each regional site.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders or highest remaining seed in the conference playoffs through all games as of March 2:
1 Quinnipiac
2 North Dakota
3 St. Cloud State
4 Providence
5 Boston College
6 Michigan
7t Denver
7t Yale
9t Notre Dame
9t Boston University
11 Harvard
12 Massachusetts-Lowell
13 Omaha
14t Penn State
14t Minnesota-Duluth
16t Minnesota
16t Michigan Tech
19t Robert Morris
19t Minnesota State
Current conference leaders based on winning percentage or highest seeds remaining in conference tournaments:
Atlantic Hockey: Robert Morris
Big Ten: Minnesota
ECAC Hockey: Quinnipiac
Hockey East: Boston College
NCHC: North Dakota
WCHA: Minnesota State
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played — i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• For those teams still in regular season play, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion after applying the tiebreakers.
• For conference that are in the postseason, the highest seed remaining is my assumed conference tournament champion.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only teams that are not are Minnesota, Minnesota State and Robert Morris.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of Denver and Yale, Notre Dame and Boston University, and Robert Morris and Minnesota State.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Quinnipiac
2 North Dakota
3 St. Cloud State
4 Providence
5 Boston College
6 Michigan
7 Denver
8 Yale
9 Notre Dame
10 Boston University
11 Harvard
12 Massachusetts-Lowell
13 Omaha
14 Minnesota
15 Robert Morris
16 Minnesota State
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds: Quinnipiac, North Dakota, St. Cloud State, Providence
No. 2 seeds: Boston College, Michigan, Denver, Yale
No. 3 seeds: Notre Dame, Boston University, Harvard, Massachusetts-Lowell
No. 4 seeds: Omaha, Minnesota, Robert Morris, Minnesota State
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 Quinnipiac is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.
No. 2 North Dakota is placed in the West Regional in St. Paul.
No. 3 St. Cloud State is placed in the Midwest Regional in Cincinnati.
No. 4 Providence is placed in the East Regional in Albany.
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intraconference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships would be played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Yale is placed in No. 1 Quinnipiac’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 7 Denver is placed in No. 2 North Dakota’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 6 Michigan is placed in No. 3 St. Cloud State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 5 Boston College is placed in No. 4 Providence’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16; another with 2, 7, 10 and 15; another with 3, 6, 11 and 14; and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
No. 9 Notre Dame is placed in No. 8 Yale’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 10 Boston University is placed in No. 7 Denver’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 11 Harvard is placed in No. 6 Michigan’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 12 Massachusetts-Lowell is placed in No. 5 Boston College’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
Since Minnesota is a host institution, we must place Minnesota in the West Regional.
No. 14 Minnesota is sent to No. 2 North Dakota’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 16 Minnesota State is sent to No. 1 Quinnipiac’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 15 Robert Morris is sent to No. 3 St. Cloud State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 13 Omaha is sent to No. 4 Providence’s regional, the East Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
East Regional (Albany):
13 Omaha vs. 4 Providence
12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 5 Boston College
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Minnesota State vs. 1 Quinnipiac
9 Notre Dame vs 8 Yale
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
15 Robert Morris vs. 3 St. Cloud State
11 Harvard vs. 6 Michigan
West Regional (St. Paul):
14 Minnesota vs. 2 North Dakota
10 Boston University vs. 7 Denver
Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have Massachusetts-Lowell vs. Providence.
Let’s take a look at the third band and attendance drivers. We have to get Massachusetts-Lowell out of that spot, and the only team that can slot in there is Harvard.
Therefore, we know Harvard will play Boston College in Albany.
Now, how about the rest?
We have stated in previous blog posts that we would love to see Notre Dame in Cincinnati. So we put Notre Dame there to play Michigan, which is the other team we would have loved to have seen there.
Now, does Massachusetts-Lowell or Boston University get to go to Worcester?
The higher seed does.
Thus, we have:
East Regional (Albany):
13 Omaha vs. 4 Providence
11 Harvard vs. 5 Boston College
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Minnesota State vs. 1 Quinnipiac
10 Boston University vs 8 Yale
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
15 Robert Morris vs. 3 St. Cloud State
9 Notre Dame vs. 6 Michigan
West Regional (St. Paul):
14 Minnesota vs. 2 North Dakota
12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 7 Denver
We move onto attendance aspects of the bracket.
I think that we are OK at the moment, even in Cincinnati.
The only thing to look out for here are the Eastern brackets. You have to ask whether they would swap the entire bracket. After all, you have one regional that has Providence, Boston College and Harvard. Would you think about this regional being in Worcester?
But for this week, we’ll stick with what we have.
See you here next week for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
East Regional (Albany):
13 Omaha vs. 4 Providence
11 Harvard vs. 5 Boston College
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Minnesota State vs. 1 Quinnipiac
10 Boston University vs 8 Yale
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
15 Robert Morris vs. 3 St. Cloud State
9 Notre Dame vs. 6 Michigan
West Regional (St. Paul):
14 Minnesota vs. 2 North Dakota
12 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 7 Denver
Conference breakdowns
Hockey East — 5
NCHC — 4
ECAC Hockey — 3
Big Ten — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey — 1
On the move
In: None
Out: None
Attendance woes?
Cincinnati is looking a little better this week.
Last week’s brackets
East Regional (Albany):
15 Robert Morris vs. 3 Boston College
12 Harvard vs. 5 Providence
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Minnesota State vs. 1 Quinnipiac
10 Boston University vs. 7 Yale
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
13 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 4 North Dakota
11 Omaha vs. 6 Michigan
West Regional (St. Paul):
14 Minnesota vs. 2 St. Cloud State
9 Notre Dame vs 8 Denver
