Welcome back to the next installment of our Bracketology, and we’ll keep bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced.
If you want to skip the inner workings and get to the results of the analysis, then click here.
Here are the facts:
• Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.
• There are four regional sites (East — Bridgeport, Conn.; Northeast — Worcester, Mass.; Midwest — Green Bay, Wis.; West — St. Paul, Minn.)
• A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. There are four host institutions this year: Yale in Bridgeport, Holy Cross in Worcester, Michigan Tech in Green Bay and Minnesota in St. Paul.
• Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the championship committee:
In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:
• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.
• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.
• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.
• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.
• Once the five automatic qualifiers and 11 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands”.
Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders (through all games of Jan. 31, 2012):
1 Minnesota-Duluth
2 Boston University
3 Massachusetts-Lowell
4 Ferris State
5t Boston College
5t Merrimack
5t Ohio State
8 Michigan
9 Minnesota
10t Maine
10t Miami
12 Notre Dame
13 Northern Michigan
14t Denver
14t Union
16 North Dakota
31 Rochester Institute of Technology
Here are the current conference leaders based on winning percentage:
Atlantic Hockey: RIT
CCHA: Ferris State
ECAC Hockey: Union
Hockey East: Merrimack
WCHA: Minnesota
Notes
• Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played. i.e., the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.
• Because there are an uneven amount of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine who the current leader in each conference is. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion.
Step one
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at how the teams rank in the Ratings Percentage Index, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only team that is not is RIT.
From there, we can start looking at the ties and bubbles in a more detailed fashion.
The ties and bubbles consist of Boston College, Merrimack and Ohio State at 5, Maine and Miami at 10 and Denver and Union at 14.
We break all of our ties based upon the RPI.
Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Minnesota-Duluth
2 Boston University
3 Massachusetts-Lowell
4 Ferris State
5 Boston College
6 Merrimack
7 Ohio State
8 Michigan
9 Minnesota
10 Maine
11 Miami
12 Notre Dame
13 Northern Michigan
14 Denver
15 Union
16 RIT
Step two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 seeds — Minnesota-Duluth, Boston University, Massachusetts-Lowell, Ferris State
No. 2 seeds — Boston College, Merrimack, Ohio State, Michigan
No. 3 seeds — Minnesota, Maine, Miami, Notre Dame
No. 4 seeds — Northern Michigan, Denver, Union, RIT
Step three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals.
No. 1 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the West Regional in St. Paul.
No. 2 Boston University is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.
No. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport.
No. 4 Ferris State is placed in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay.
Step four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 seeds
No. 8 Michigan is placed in No. 1 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 7 Ohio State is placed in No. 2 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 6 Merrimack is placed in No. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 5 Boston College is placed in No. 4 Ferris State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 3 seeds
Our bracketing system has one regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
But we have to place Minnesota first, as it is a host institution.
No. 9 Minnesota is placed in No. 8 Michigan’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 10 Maine is placed in No. 7 Ohio State’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 11 Miami is placed in No. 6 Merrimack’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 12 Notre Dame is placed in No. 5 Boston College’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 4 seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 vs. No. 1, No. 15 vs. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 RIT is sent to No. 1 Minnesota-Duluth’s regional, the West Regional.
No. 15 Union is sent to No. 2 Boston University’s regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 14 Denver is sent to No. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell’s regional, the East Regional.
No. 13 Northern Michigan is sent to No. 4 Ferris State’s regional, the Midwest Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
West Regional:
RIT vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Minnesota vs. Michigan
Midwest Regional:
Northern Michigan vs. Ferris State
Notre Dame vs. Boston College
Northeast Regional:
Union vs. Boston University
Maine vs. Ohio State
East Regional:
Denver vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Miami vs. Merrimack
Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have one in Northern Michigan vs. Ferris State.
To avoid this, we switch Northern Michigan with Denver.
Our brackets are now:
West Regional:
RIT vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Minnesota vs. Michigan
Midwest Regional:
Denver vs. Ferris State
Notre Dame vs. Boston College
Northeast Regional:
Union vs. Boston University
Maine vs. Ohio State
East Regional:
Northern Michigan vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Miami vs. Merrimack
We now have a bracket that does not have any intra-conference matchups.
Can we make it better?
Attendance is always a concern.
If you take a look at the Midwest Regional, you may have a problem. The regional is in Green Bay, traditionally a WCHA territory. And while you do have three western teams there, only Denver is a WCHA school, and at the same time, you have Notre Dame and Ferris State.
So could you possibly make one switch?
Swap the matchup of RIT vs. Minnesota-Duluth and Denver vs. Ferris State in terms of location.
Does this make sense?
Let’s look at distance. Duluth is 254 miles to Green Bay. Duluth is 140 miles to St. Paul. That’s 114 extra miles, which can be considered negligible in the NCAA’s eyes.
How about the attendance issue?
St. Paul has Minnesota vs. Michigan right now. I would say that’s a full house draw right there.
Green Bay has no such matchup.
How about bracket integrity? You’ve gone and screwed this up now to a degree. You now have the number 4, 8, 9 and 14 seeds in St. Paul and the number 1, 5, 12 and 16 seeds in Green Bay.
So there’s a tough decision to be made here.
Do you throw out bracket integrity for the sake of thinking that putting Minnesota-Duluth in Green Bay will boost the Green Bay attendance number?
It’s a tough call, but in the end, I’m going to go with bracket integrity.
So my bracket does not change.
West Regional:
RIT vs. Minnesota-Duluth
Minnesota vs. Michigan
Midwest Regional:
Denver vs. Ferris State
Notre Dame vs. Boston College
Northeast Regional:
Union vs. Boston University
Maine vs. Ohio State
East Regional:
Northern Michigan vs. Massachusetts-Lowell
Miami vs. Merrimack
So that is it. My bracket for the week.
See you here next week for the next Bracketology.
Here’s a summary of everything that we have covered.
This week’s brackets
St. Paul
16 RIT vs. 1 Minnesota-Duluth
9 Minnesota vs. 8 Michigan
Green Bay
14 Denver vs. 4 Ferris State
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Boston College
Bridgeport
13 Northern Michigan vs. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell
11 Miami vs. 6 Merrimack
Worcester
15 Union vs. 2 Boston University
10 Maine vs. 7 Ohio State
Conference breakdowns
CCHA — 6
HEA — 5
WCHA — 3
ECAC — 1
AHA — 1
On The Move
In: Maine, Union, RIT
Out: Michigan State, Cornell, Mercyhurst
Attendance woes?
Green Bay. But we addressed that earlier in the Bracketology.
Last week’s brackets
St. Paul
13 Minnesota vs. 4 Notre Dame
10 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 7 Northern Michigan
Green Bay
14 Michigan State vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
12 Denver vs. 5 Michigan
Bridgeport
16 Mercyhurst vs. 3 Ohio State
11 Cornell vs. 6 Merrimack
Worcester
15 Miami vs. 1 Boston University
9 Boston College vs. 8 Ferris State
Interesting …
• All five conference leaders changed this week. It shows you how volatile the whole thing is.
