It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology — college hockey style. It’s our weekly look at how I believe the NCAA Ice Hockey Championship Committee will use the PairWise to determine the NCAA tournament bracket.
If you’re new to Bracketology, click here for the background.
Here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and the conference leaders (through all games of Feb. 9):
1 Miami
2 Denver
3 Wisconsin
4 St. Cloud State
5t Bemidji State
5t Boston College
7t Maine
7t Colorado College
9t Massachusetts
9t Minnesota-Duluth
11t Vermont
11t North Dakota
13 Ferris State
14 Michigan State
15t Cornell
15t New Hampshire
— RIT
And here are the current conference leaders based on winning percentage:
Atlantic Hockey: RIT
CHA: Bemidji State
CCHA: Miami
ECAC: Cornell
Hockey East: New Hampshire
WCHA: St. Cloud State (wins head-to-head tiebreaker with Minnesota-Duluth)
Step One
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only team that is not is RIT.
From there, we can start looking at the bubble in a more detailed fashion.
The bubbles consist of Bemidji State and Boston College at 5, Maine and Colorado College at 7, Massachusetts and Minnesota-Duluth at 9, Vermont and North Dakota at 11 and Cornell and New Hampshire at 15.
Looking at the head-to-head PairWise comparisons, we break all of our ties.
After putting all the teams together, Michigan State gets the unlucky bounce at 14.
Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:
1 Miami
2 Denver
3 Wisconsin
4 St. Cloud State
5 Bemidji State
6 Boston College
7 Maine
8 Colorado College
9 Massachusetts
10 Minnesota-Duluth
11 Vermont
12 North Dakota
13 Ferris State
14 Cornell
15 New Hampshire
16 RIT
Step Two
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.
No. 1 Seeds — Miami, Denver, Wisconsin, St. Cloud State
No. 2 Seeds — Bemidji State, Boston College, Maine, Colorado College
No. 3 Seeds — Massachusetts, Minnesota-Duluth, Vermont, North Dakota
No. 4 Seeds — Ferris State, Cornell, New Hampshire, RIT
Step Three
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. Following the guidelines, there are no host teams in this grouping, so that rule does not need to be enforced.
We now place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites.
No. 1 Miami is placed in the Midwest Regional in Fort Wayne.
No. 2 Denver is placed in the West Regional in St. Paul.
No. 3 Wisconsin is placed in the East Regional in Albany.
No. 4 St. Cloud State is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.
Step Four
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6 and No. 4 vs. No. 5.
So therefore:
No. 2 Seeds
No. 8 Colorado College is placed in No. 1 Miami’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 7 Maine is placed in No. 2 Denver’s Regional, the West Regional.
No. 6 Boston College is placed in No. 3 Wisconsin’s Regional, the East Regional.
No. 5 Bemidji State is placed in No. 4 St. Cloud’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 3 Seeds
Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
Therefore:
No. 9 Massachusetts is placed in No. 8 Colorado College’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 10 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in No. 7 Maine’s Regional, the West Regional.
No. 11 Vermont is placed in No. 6 Boston College’s Regional, the East Regional.
No. 12 North Dakota is placed in No. 5 Bemidji’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
No. 4 Seeds
One more time, taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc.
No. 16 RIT is sent to No. 1 Miami’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
No. 15 New Hampshire is sent to No. 2 Denver’s Regional, the West Regional.
No. 14 Cornell is sent to No. 3 Wisconsin’s Regional, the East Regional.
No. 13 Ferris State is sent to No. 4 St. Cloud’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
The brackets as we have set them up:
Northeast Regional:
North Dakota vs. Bemidji State
Ferris State vs. St. Cloud State
Midwest Regional:
RIT vs. Miami
Massachusetts vs. Colorado College
East Regional:
Cornell vs. Wisconsin
Vermont vs. Boston College
West Regional:
New Hampshire vs. Denver
Minnesota-Duluth vs. Maine
Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have just one in Vermont vs. Boston College in Albany.
The only place where Vermont can go where there is no Hockey East-Hockey East matchup is to switch with North Dakota.
So our tournament now becomes:
Northeast Regional:
Ferris State vs. St. Cloud State
Vermont vs. Bemidji State
Midwest Regional:
RIT vs. Miami
Massachusetts vs. Colorado College
East Regional:
Cornell vs. Wisconsin
North Dakota vs. Boston College
West Regional:
New Hampshire vs. Denver
Minnesota-Duluth vs. Maine
Do we like the way this looks?
We have no intraconference matchups, so we are OK. Integrity also looks OK.
Do we have an attendance issue? Sure looks like we do.
Let’s do the same thing we did the last two weeks. If you recall, we put forth the theory that Denver has to fly, so it can be sent anywhere. If Wisconsin and St. Cloud both go east, we now have three teams flying. So to minimize the flying, we rearrange where the No. 1 seeds go.
In this case, we assign St. Cloud to St. Paul, then move Denver to Worcester.
Using the same bracketing procedure as above we now wind up with this bracket:
West Regional:
Ferris State vs. St. Cloud State
Vermont vs. Bemidji State
Midwest Regional:
RIT vs. Miami
Massachusetts vs. Colorado College
East Regional:
Cornell vs. Wisconsin
North Dakota vs. Boston College
Northeast Regional:
New Hampshire vs. Denver
Minnesota-Duluth vs. Maine
Let’s take a look.
St. Paul has St. Cloud and Bemidji and Ferris.
Ft. Wayne contains Miami.
Albany is good with Cornell and Boston College.
Worcester is good with Maine and New Hampshire.
So that’s where I’ll hang my hat this week.
Check the Bracketology Blog for other items, and we’ll see you here next week for the next Bracketology.
