PairWise Possibilities (aka Things I Believe at 3:00am EDT)

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It’s late, but I wanted to give you folks some things to look at going into Saturday’s games.  Here are the things that I believe right now.

  • There are 14 teams in the tournament.

BU, Notre Dame, Michigan, Denver, Yale, Northeastern, Minn.-Duluth, North Dakota, Vermont, New Hampshire, Cornell, Miami, Bemidji State and the AH winner.

Yale and Cornell clinched with wins today.  The same for Minnesota-Duluth.  Miami also clinches because of the math.  The only teams that can pass Miami are Princeton and Mass.-Lowell, but even so, the RedHawks still get into the tournament.

  • There are 2 spots left.
  • The two easiest paths to these two spots belong to Princeton and UML.  A win and they are in.

If UML wins, it gets one spot, but if it loses, it’s out.

If Princeton wins, it gets one spot, but if it loses, it’s out.

  • The other teams eligible for the final two spots are St. Lawrence, Minnesota and Ohio State.

Of the five teams left, you can not have the combination of St. Lawrence and Princeton getting in, only one or none of these two can get in.  In other words the ECAC will get a maximum of three teams into the field.

  • St. Lawrence can get in, but it needs to win, and then it needs a combo that involves UML and UMD and perhaps Michigan/Notre Dame.

If SLU wins, it basically needs either UML or UMD to lose.  There is a scenario or two where if both win, SLU still gets in, but it depends on the Michigan/Notre Dame game.

  • Minnesota and Ohio State’s best routes to the NCAA are if SLU and UML lost.  If that happens that means that there is one spot left for either of these two teams.

If SLU and UML lose, then things will depend upon all the other games.  There are too many combinations here to go through.

  • The number one seeds are all sewn up.  They will be BU, Notre Dame, Michigan and Denver. 
  • Yale and Northeastern have sewn up number two seeds.
  • North Dakota, New Hampshire, Vermont, Minnesota-Duluth and Cornell will all be two or three seeds.
  • Miami will be a three or four seed.
  • Bemidji State and the AH winner will be number four seeds.
  • If Princeton makes the tourney it can be as high as a three seed.
  • Minnesota, Ohio State, St. Lawrence and UML can only be four seeds.

As always, if you find that my beliefs may be wrong, please let me know.  I’ll add more as I run through more scenarios.

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