{"id":29643,"date":"2008-02-05T12:36:55","date_gmt":"2008-02-05T18:36:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.uscho.com\/2008\/02\/05\/bracketology-feb-5-2008\/"},"modified":"2010-08-17T19:57:10","modified_gmt":"2010-08-18T00:57:10","slug":"bracketology-feb-5-2008","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2008\/02\/05\/bracketology-feb-5-2008\/","title":{"rendered":"Bracketology: Feb. 5, 2008"},"content":{"rendered":"

It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology — College Hockey Style. It’s our weekly look at how the NCAA tournament would look if the season ended today. <\/p>\n

It’s a look into what are the possible thought processes behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.<\/p>\n

This is the next installment of Bracketology, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced.<\/p>\n

Here are the facts:<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament.<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 There are four regional sites (East — Albany, N.Y.. Northeast — Worcester, Mass., Midwest — Madison, Wis., West — Colorado Springs, Colo.)<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. There are four host institutions this year, Rensselaer in Albany, Holy Cross in Worcester, Wisconsin in Madison and Colorado College in Colorado Springs.<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intra-conference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded.<\/p>\n

Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the Championship Committee:<\/p>\n

In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 Conference matchups in the first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The biggest change this year is the fact that in past years the NCAA included a bonus factor for “good” nonconference wins. This year, it is no more. There are no more bonus points for anything.<\/p>\n

So it becomes pretty easy this year, doesn’t it? Take the straight PairWise Rankings (PWR) and then follow the rules and you have the tournament. It’s that easy, right? <\/p>\n

You know better than that.<\/p>\n

Given these facts, here are the top 16 of the current PWR, and the current conference leaders (through all games of February 4, 2008):<\/p>\n

1 Miami
\n2 Michigan
\n3t Colorado College
\n3t New Hampshire
\n5t North Dakota
\n5t Denver
\n7 Michigan State
\n8 Minn.-Duluth
\n9 Boston College
\n10 Minnesota State
\n11t Clarkson
\n11t Providence
\n13t Northeastern
\n13t Notre Dame
\n15 Wisconsin
\n16 Massachusetts
\n— Bemidji State
\n— Army<\/p>\n

Current conference leaders:<\/p>\n

Atlantic Hockey: Army
\nCHA: Bemidji State
\nCCHA: Miami
\nECAC: Clarkson
\nHockey East: New Hampshire
\nWCHA: Colorado College<\/p>\n

Notes<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 Bracketology assumes that the season has ended and there are no more games to be played; i.e.<\/i>, the NCAA tournament starts tomorrow.<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u00a2 Because there are an uneven number of games played inside each conference, I will be using winning percentage, not points accumulated, to determine the current leader in each conference. This team is my assumed conference tournament champion.<\/p>\n

Step One<\/b><\/p>\n

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament.<\/p>\n

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the Top 16. The only teams that are not listed are Bemidji State and Army.<\/p>\n

Let’s look at the ties.<\/p>\n

The ties consist of New Hampshire and Colorado College at 3, North Dakota and Denver at 5, Clarkson and Providence at 11 and Northeastern and Notre Dame at 13.<\/p>\n

Head-to-head we get New Hampshire, North Dakota, Clarkson and Providence besting their ties.<\/p>\n

Therefore the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n

1 Miami
\n2 Michigan
\n3 New Hampshire
\n4 Colorado College
\n5 North Dakota
\n6 Denver
\n7 Michigan State
\n8 Minn.-Duluth
\n9 Boston College
\n10 Minnesota State
\n11 Clarkson
\n12 Providence
\n13 Northeastern
\n14 Notre Dame
\n15 Bemidji State
\n16 Army<\/p>\n

Step Two<\/b><\/p>\n

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n

No. 1 Seeds – Miami, Michigan, New Hampshire, Colorado College
\nNo. 2 Seeds – North Dakota, Denver, Michigan State, Minn.-Duluth
\nNo. 3 Seeds – Boston College, Minnesota State, Clarkson, Providence
\nNo. 4 Seeds – Northeastern, Notre Dame, Bemidji State, Army<\/p>\n

Step Three<\/b><\/p>\n

Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. We seed Colorado College first, since it is hosting a Regional.<\/p>\n

We now place the other No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites.<\/p>\n

No. 4 Colorado College is placed in the West Regional in Colorado Springs.
\nNo. 1 Miami is placed in the Midwest Regional in Madison.
\nNo. 2 Michigan is placed in the East Regional in Albany.
\nNo. 3 New Hampshire is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.<\/p>\n

Step Four<\/b><\/p>\n

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible.<\/p>\n

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/i> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional).<\/p>\n

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.<\/p>\n

So therefore:<\/p>\n

No. 2 Seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

No. 8 Minn.-Duluth is placed in No. 1 Miami’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 7 Michigan State is placed in No. 2 Michigan’s Regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 6 Denver is placed in No. 3 New Hampshire’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 5 North Dakota is placed in No. 4 Colorado College’s Regional, the West Regional.<\/p>\n

No. 3 Seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n

Therefore:<\/p>\n

No. 9 Boston College is placed in No. 8 Minn.-Duluth’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 10 Minnesota State is placed in No. 7 Michigan State’s Regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 11 Clarkson is placed in No. 6 Denver’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 12 Providence is placed in No. 5 North Dakota’s Regional, the West Regional.<\/p>\n

No. 4 Seeds<\/i><\/p>\n

One more time, taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n

No. 16 Army is sent to Miami’s Regional, the Midwest Regional
\nNo. 15 Bemidji State is sent to Michigan’s Regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 14 Notre Dame is sent to New Hampshire’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 13 Northeastern is sent to Colorado College’s Regional, the West Regional.<\/p>\n

The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n

West Regional:<\/p>\n

Northeastern vs. Colorado College
\nProvidence vs. North Dakota<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional:<\/p>\n

Army vs. Miami
\nBoston College vs. Minn.-Duluth<\/p>\n

East Regional:<\/p>\n

Bemidji State vs. Michigan
\nMinnesota State vs. Michigan State<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional:<\/p>\n

Notre Dame vs. New Hampshire
\nClarkson vs. Denver<\/p>\n

Our first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We actually don’t have any.<\/p>\n

So the tournament is now fixed.<\/p>\n

Or is it?<\/p>\n

Let’s reexamine now and see if we can keep integrity and make attendance better.<\/p>\n

In Worcester we have New Hampshire and Clarkson along with Notre Dame and Denver. Not bad — I can live with that.<\/p>\n

In Colorado Springs we have Colorado College and North Dakota along with two Hockey East teams. I think I can live with that as well, since there are a lot of North Dakota fans and alumni there.<\/p>\n

But right now we have zero Eastern teams in Albany. And also in Albany we have Michigan and Michigan State.<\/p>\n

Two Eastern teams in Madison and only one WCHA team, along with our number-one seed. <\/p>\n

What seems like the right thing to do?<\/p>\n

You got it. Swap the entire<\/i> East and Midwest brackets.<\/p>\n

Let’s do that.<\/p>\n

West Regional:<\/p>\n

Northeastern vs. Colorado College
\nProvidence vs. North Dakota<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional:<\/p>\n

Bemidji State vs. Michigan
\nMinnesota State vs. Michigan State<\/p>\n

East Regional:<\/p>\n

Army vs. Miami
\nBoston College vs. Minn.-Duluth<\/p>\n

Northeast Regional:<\/p>\n

Notre Dame vs. New Hampshire
\nClarkson vs. Denver<\/p>\n

Now this I like a lot better. You now have Michigan and Michigan State in Madison, where they will draw well. You have Boston College and Army in New York, also drawing a better crowd. It would still be nice to have Clarkson here, but that’s okay.<\/p>\n

So I think we’re set for this week. A lot easier than in past weeks.<\/p>\n

That’s it for this week, and it wasn’t a tough one, that’s for sure. We’ll be back with another analysis next week.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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