{"id":28138,"date":"2006-03-08T14:06:44","date_gmt":"2006-03-08T20:06:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.uscho.com\/2006\/03\/08\/bracketology-march-8-2006\/"},"modified":"2010-08-17T19:56:31","modified_gmt":"2010-08-18T00:56:31","slug":"bracketology-march-8-2006","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2006\/03\/08\/bracketology-march-8-2006\/","title":{"rendered":"Bracketology: March 8, 2006"},"content":{"rendered":"

It’s time once again to do what we like to call Bracketology — College Hockey Style, a weekly look at how the NCAA tournament would shake out if the season ended today, and a look into the thought process behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.<\/p>\n

We’ll be bringing you a new one every week until we make our final picks before the field is announced in March.<\/p>\n

Here are the facts:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament. <\/p>\n

\u2022 There are four regional sites (Northeast – Worcester, Mass.; East – Albany, N.Y.; Midwest – Green Bay, Wis.; West – Grand Forks, N.D.)<\/p>\n

\u2022 A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. <\/p>\n

\u2022 Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intraconference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded. <\/p>\n

Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the Championship Committee: <\/p>\n

In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities: <\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u2022 The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. <\/p>\n

\u2022 Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home. <\/p>\n

\u2022 No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4. <\/p>\n

\u2022 Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands.”<\/p>\n

Additionally, the NCAA includes a bonus factor for “good” nonconference wins. The exact amount of the bonus is kept secret, but experience in previous seasons has given us some idea as to how large it must be.<\/p>\n

Because of this bonus factor, we won’t even talk about the PairWise Rankings (PWR) without an added bonus. We know that the bonus is at least .003 for a quality road win, .002 for a quality neutral-site win and .001 for a quality home win. So everything that we do will reference the 3-2-1 bonus as a base.<\/p>\n

Given these facts, here is the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), with a 3-2-1 bonus, plus any other teams that are currently leading their conferences, but are not in the top 16 (through all games of March 5, 2006): <\/p>\n

1 Minnesota
\n2 Wisconsin
\n3 Miami
\n4t Boston University
\n4t Michigan State
\n6 Colorado College
\n7 Nebraska-Omaha
\n8t Harvard
\n8t North Dakota
\n10 Cornell
\n11t Maine
\n11t Denver
\n13t Michigan
\n13t New Hampshire
\n15 Ferris State
\n16 Boston College
\n17 Dartmouth
\n21t Holy Cross
\n— Niagara<\/p>\n

Let’s take something into account at this point in time. Niagara is currently not a TUC, but if given the autobid, it will be a TUC. So let’s take that into account and make Niagara a TUC.<\/p>\n

Adding in Niagara in the PairWise, we now get a Top 16, plus teams that won the regular-season titles in their conferences, giving us:<\/p>\n

1 Minnesota
\n2 Wisconsin
\n3 Miami
\n4t Boston University
\n4t Michigan State
\n6 Colorado College
\n7 Nebraska-Omaha
\n8t Harvard
\n8t North Dakota
\n10 Cornell
\n11t Maine
\n11t Denver
\n13t Michigan
\n13t New Hampshire
\n15 Ferris State
\n16 Boston College
\n17 Dartmouth
\n21t Holy Cross
\n— Niagara <\/p>\n

Step One<\/b> <\/p>\n

From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament. <\/p>\n

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in Holy Cross and Niagara.<\/p>\n

Now let’s break the ties. <\/p>\n

Boston University wins the comparison with Michigan State. Likewise Maine wins against Denver and Michigan wins against New Hampshire.<\/p>\n

Now choose the teams in the tournament. First we take the autobids, a total of six teams. Because we do not know who will win the tournaments, we are going to make an assumption — that the number-one seed in each tournament will win it. Obviously, this might not happen, but it’s the best guess at the moment. These six teams are:<\/p>\n

AHA – Niagara
\nCHA – Holy Cross
\nCCHA – Miami
\nECACHL – Dartmouth
\nHEA – Boston University
\nWCHA – Minnesota<\/p>\n

Then we take the next 10 teams, in rank order, that are not autobids. Therefore, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n

1 Minnesota
\n2 Wisconsin
\n3 Miami
\n4 Boston University
\n5 Michigan State
\n6 Colorado College
\n7 Nebraska-Omaha
\n8 Harvard
\n9 North Dakota
\n10 Cornell
\n11 Maine
\n12 Denver
\n13 Michigan
\n14 Dartmouth
\n15 Holy Cross
\n16 Niagara <\/p>\n

Step Two<\/b><\/p>\n

Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n

No. 1 Seeds – Minnesota, Wisconsin, Miami, Boston University
\nNo. 2 Seeds – Michigan State, Colorado College, Nebraska-Omaha, Harvard
\nNo. 3 Seeds – North Dakota, Cornell, Maine, Denver
\nNo. 4 Seeds – Michigan, Dartmouth, Holy Cross, Niagara<\/p>\n

Step Three<\/b> <\/p>\n

We place No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites. We place Boston University first, as it is a host school.<\/p>\n

No. 4 Boston University is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.
\nNo. 1 Minnesota is placed in the West Regional in Grand Forks.
\nNo. 2 Wisconsin is then placed in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay.
\nNo. 3 Miami is placed in the East Regional in Albany.<\/p>\n

Step Four<\/b> <\/p>\n

Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intraconference matchups if possible. <\/p>\n

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/i> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (unless you are a host school, in which case you must be assigned to your home regional). <\/p>\n

If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.<\/p>\n

So therefore:<\/p>\n

No. 2 Seeds<\/i> <\/p>\n

No. 5 Michigan State is placed in No. 4 Boston University’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.
\nNo. 6 Colorado College is placed in No. 3 Miami’s Regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 7 Nebraska-Omaha is placed in No. 2 Wisconsin’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 8 Harvard is placed in No. 1 Minnesota’s Regional, the West Regional.<\/p>\n

No. 3 Seeds<\/i> <\/p>\n

Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n

We have to place North Dakota first, since it is a host school.<\/p>\n

No. 9 North Dakota is placed in No. 8 Harvard’s Regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 10 Cornell is placed in No. 7 Nebraska-Omaha’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 11 Maine is placed in No. 6 Colorado College’s Regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 12 Denver is placed in No. 5 Michigan State’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.<\/p>\n

No. 4 Seeds<\/i> <\/p>\n

One more time, taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n

No. 16 Niagara is sent to Minnesota’s Regional, the West Regional.
\nNo. 15 Holy Cross is sent to Wisconsin’s Regional, the Midwest Regional.
\nNo. 14 Dartmouth is sent to Miami’s Regional, the East Regional.
\nNo. 13 Michigan is sent to Boston University’s Regional, the Northeast Regional.<\/p>\n

The brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n

West Regional: <\/p>\n

Niagara vs. Minnesota
\nNorth Dakota vs. Harvard<\/p>\n

Midwest Regional: <\/p>\n

Holy Cross vs. Wisconsin
\nCornell vs. Nebraska-Omaha <\/p>\n

Northeast Regional: <\/p>\n

Michigan vs. Boston University
\nDenver vs. Michigan State<\/p>\n

East Regional: <\/p>\n

Dartmouth vs. Miami
\nMaine vs. Colorado College <\/p>\n

Our first concern is avoiding intraconference matchups. We have none.<\/p>\n

And we have our bracket for this week.<\/p>\n

Bracketing the Frozen Four, if all four number-one seeds advance, then the top overall seed plays the No. 4 overall, and No. 2 plays No. 3. Therefore, the winners of the Midwest and East Regionals face each other in one semifinal (Wisconsin and Miami’s brackets), while the winners of the Northeast and West Regionals (Boston University and Minnesota’s brackets) play the other semifinal. <\/p>\n

Bonus Time<\/h4>\n

We know there is a bonus component to the criteria, the NCAA’s tweak to the system which rewards “good” nonconference wins. We’ve determined that it is at least .003 for a good road win, .002 for a good neutral win and .001 for a good home win.<\/p>\n

We also know that it’s not as high as .005 for a good road win, .003 for a good neutral win and .001 for a good home win.<\/p>\n

So let’s find a medium here. Let’s take .004 for a good road win, .0025 for a good neutral win and .001 for a good home win.<\/p>\n

Does anything change? <\/p>\n

It does not. So our bracket remains the same.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Who’s in and who’s out? With just two weekends of play left before Selection Sunday, Jayson Moy brings the current NCAA tournament picture into focus.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":140328,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBracketology: March 8, 2006 - College Hockey | USCHO.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Who's in and who's out? 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