It’s time once again for what we like to call Bracketology — college hockey style. It’s a weekly look at how the NCAA tournament might look if the season ended today.<\/p>\n
More than that, it’s a look into the thought process behind selecting and seeding the NCAA tournament teams.<\/p>\n
This is the seventh installment of Bracketology, and we’ll be bringing you a new one every week, until we make our final picks just before the field is announced.<\/p>\n
Here are the facts:<\/p>\n
\u2022 Sixteen teams are selected to participate in the national tournament. <\/p>\n
\u2022 There are four regional sites (East – Worcester, Massachusetts, Northeast – Amherst, Massachusetts, Midwest – Grand Rapids, Mich., West – Minneapolis, Minn.)<\/p>\n
\u2022 A host institution which is invited to the tournament plays in the regional for which it is the host, and cannot be moved. <\/p>\n
\u2022 Seedings will not be switched, as opposed to years past. To avoid undesirable first-round matchups, including intraconference games (see below), teams will be moved among regionals, not reseeded. <\/p>\n
Here are the NCAA’s guidelines on the matter, per a meeting of the Championship Committee: <\/p>\n
\nIn setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:<\/p>\n
\u2022 The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals. <\/p>\n
\u2022 Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home. <\/p>\n
\u2022 No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4. <\/p>\n
\u2022 Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.<\/p>\n
\u2022 Once the six automatic qualifiers and 10 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands.”\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Additionally, the NCAA recently clarified its selection criteria to include a bonus factor for “good” nonconference wins, which are wins against non-league opponents in the top 15 of the Ratings Percentage Index.<\/p>\n
Given these facts, here are the top 16 of the current PairWise Rankings (PWR), and all conference leaders, based on winning percentage (Sacred Heart, Michigan, Bemidji State, Cornell, Boston College and Denver) (through all games of Monday, February 21, 2005):<\/p>\n
1 Denver
\n2 Colorado College
\n3t Cornell
\n3t Boston College
\n5 Minnesota
\n6 Michigan
\n7t Wisconsin
\n7t Boston University
\n7t New Hampshire
\n7t Massachusetts-Lowell
\n11 Harvard
\n12 Ohio State
\n13t Colgate
\n13t Dartmouth
\n15 North Dakota
\n16 Northern Michigan
\n24 Bemidji State
\n— Sacred Heart<\/p>\nStep One<\/b> <\/p>\n
From the committee’s report, choose the 16 teams in the tournament. <\/p>\n
We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add all of the conference leaders, based on winning percentage.<\/p>\n
From there, we can start looking at the bubble in a more detailed fashion.<\/p>\n
Breaking ties in the PWR using head-to-head comparisons among the tied teams, the 16 teams in the tournament, in rank order, are:<\/p>\n
1 Denver
\n2 Colorado College
\n3 Cornell
\n4 Boston College
\n5 Minnesota
\n6 Michigan
\n7 Wisconsin
\n8 Boston University
\n9 New Hampshire
\n10 Massachusetts-Lowell
\n11 Harvard
\n12 Ohio State
\n13 Colgate
\n14 Dartmouth
\n15 Bemidji State
\n16 Sacred Heart <\/p>\nAll ties were broken because of individual comparison wins. The main differences this week are that Dartmouth and Colgate are in the tournament, replacing North Dakota and Northern Michigan.<\/p>\n
Step Two<\/b><\/p>\n
Now it’s time to assign the seeds.<\/p>\n
No. 1 Seeds — Denver, Colorado College, Cornell, Boston College
\nNo. 2 Seeds — Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Boston University
\nNo. 3 Seeds — New Hampshire, Massachusetts-Lowell, Harvard, Ohio State
\nNo. 4 Seeds — Colgate, Dartmouth, Bemidji State, Sacred Heart<\/p>\nStep Three<\/b> <\/p>\n
Place the No. 1 seeds in regionals. There are no host teams in this grouping, so that rule does not need to be enforced. We now place No. 1 seeds based on proximity to the regional sites. <\/p>\n
No. 1 Denver is placed in the West Regional in Minneapolis.
\nNo. 2 Colorado College is placed in the Midwest Regional in Grand Rapids.
\nNo. 3 Cornell is placed in the Northeast Regional in Amherst.
\nNo. 4 Boston College is then placed in the East Regional in Worcester.<\/p>\nStep Four<\/b> <\/p>\n
Now we place the other 12 teams so as to avoid intra-conference matchups if possible. <\/p>\n
Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not<\/i> assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding (except for host schools, which must be assigned to their home regionals). <\/p>\n
If this is the case, as it was last year, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.<\/p>\n
So therefore:<\/p>\n
No. 2 Seeds<\/i> <\/p>\n
No. 5 Minnesota is placed in No. 1 Denver’s Regional, the West, as the host.
\nNo. 8 Boston University is placed in No. 4 Boston College’s Regional, the East, as the host.
\nNo. 6 Michigan is placed in No. 3 Cornell’s Regional, the Northeast
\nNo. 7 Wisconsin is placed in No. 2 Colorado College’s Regional, the Midwest.<\/p>\nNo. 3 Seeds<\/i> <\/p>\n
Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.<\/p>\n
Therefore:<\/p>\n
No. 9 New Hampshire is placed in No. 8 Boston University’s Regional, the East.
\nNo. 10 UML is placed in No. 7 Wisconsin’s Regional, the Midwest.
\nNo. 11 Harvard is placed in No. 6 Michigan’s Regional, the Northeast.
\nNo. 12 Ohio State is placed in No. 5 Minnesota’s Regional, the West.<\/p>\nNo. 4 Seeds<\/i> <\/p>\n
One more time, taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc.<\/p>\n
No. 16 Sacred Heart is sent to Denver’s Regional, the West.
\nNo. 15 Bemidji State is sent to Colorado College’s Regional, the Midwest.
\nNo. 14 Dartmouth is sent to Cornell’s Regional, the Northeast.
\nNo. 13 Colgate is sent to Boston College’s Regional, the East.<\/p>\nThe brackets as we have set them up:<\/p>\n
West Regional: <\/p>\n
Sacred Heart vs. Denver
\nOhio State vs. Minnesota<\/p>\nMidwest Regional: <\/p>\n
Bemidji State vs. Colorado College
\nUML vs. Wisconsin<\/p>\nEast Regional: <\/p>\n
Colgate vs. Boston College
\nNew Hampshire vs. Boston University <\/p>\nNortheast Regional: <\/p>\n
Dartmouth vs. Cornell
\nHarvard vs. Michigan<\/p>\nOur first concern is avoiding intra-conference matchups. We have quite a few. <\/p>\n
Let’s resolve the dilemma of Dartmouth-Cornell. We can’t move Dartmouth and Colgate, since both of those are ECACHL teams, so we have to switch Dartmouth with Bemidji State.<\/p>\n
Now we take care of UNH vs. BU. We can’t switch UNH with UML, so we switch UNH with Harvard.<\/p>\n
We now have our bracket:<\/p>\n
West Regional: <\/p>\n
Sacred Heart vs. Denver
\nOhio State vs. Minnesota<\/p>\nMidwest Regional: <\/p>\n
Dartmouth vs. Colorado College
\nUML vs. Wisconsin<\/p>\nEast Regional: <\/p>\n
Colgate vs. Boston College
\nHarvard vs. Boston University <\/p>\nNortheast Regional: <\/p>\n
Bemidji State vs. Cornell
\nUNH vs. Michigan<\/p>\nBracketing the Frozen Four, if all four number-one seeds advance, then the top overall seed plays the No. 4 overall, and No. 2 plays No. 3. Therefore, the winners of the West and East Regionals face each other in one semifinal (Denver and Boston College’s brackets), while the winners of the Midwest and Northeast Regionals (Colorado College and Cornell’s brackets) play the other semifinal. <\/p>\n
But…<\/p>\n
Bonus Time<\/h4>\n
We know there is a bonus component to the criteria, the NCAA’s tweak to the system which rewards “good” nonconference wins.<\/p>\n
Without official word on the size of the bonuses, we take these numbers: .003 for a good road win, .002 for a good neutral win and .001 for a good home win.<\/p>\n
Now remember, nonconference wins against conference opponents do not count toward the bonus. For example, when Alaska-Anchorage defeated Minnesota in the Nye Frontier Classic, that didn’t count.<\/p>\n
Our seedings are now:<\/p>\n
1 Denver
\n2 Colorado College
\n3 Boston College
\n4 Minnesota
\n5 Michigan
\n6 Cornell
\n7 Boston University
\n8 Massachusetts-Lowell
\n9 New Hampshire
\n10 Wisconsin
\n11 Ohio State
\n12 Harvard
\n13 North Dakota
\n14 Colgate
\n15 Bemidji State
\n16 Sacred Heart<\/p>\nA few noticeable changes here as in Cornell falling from 4 to 6, North Dakota replacing Dartmouth in the tournament (on the basis of the Sioux’ two wins at Maine, which is No. 15 in the unadjusted RPI).<\/p>\n
So, our new brackets, using our bracket-filling like above, we have a few changes. <\/p>\n
West Regional: <\/p>\n
North Dakota vs. Minnesota
\nHarvard vs. Michigan<\/p>\nMidwest Regional: <\/p>\n
Sacred Heart vs. Denver
\nUNH vs. UML<\/p>\nEast Regional: <\/p>\n
Bemidji State vs. Colorado College
\nWisconsin vs. Boston University<\/p>\nNortheast Regional: <\/p>\n
Colgate vs. Boston College
\nOhio State vs. Cornell<\/p>\nWe need to resolve UND-Minnesota here, so we switch North Dakota with Colgate. We also need to resolve UNH vs. UML. We can’t switch UNH with Wisconsin, since that would pit UNH against fellow Hockey East member BU, so we have to switch UNH with Ohio State.<\/p>\n
So here are the brackets this week:<\/p>\n
West Regional: <\/p>\n
Colgate vs. Minnesota
\nHarvard vs. Michigan<\/p>\nMidwest Regional: <\/p>\n
Sacred Heart vs. Denver
\nOhio State vs. UML<\/p>\nEast Regional: <\/p>\n
Bemidji State vs. Colorado College
\nWisconsin vs. Boston University<\/p>\nNortheast Regional: <\/p>\n
North Dakota vs. Boston College
\nUNH vs. Cornell<\/p>\nWhat if we took these numbers: .005 for a good road win, .003 for a good neutral win and .001 for a good home win?<\/p>\n
The changes — Dartmouth replaces Colgate, and Boston College switches places with Colorado College. Our seedings:<\/p>\n
1 Denver
\n2 Boston College
\n3 Colorado College
\n4 Minnesota
\n5 Michigan
\n6 Cornell
\n7 Boston University
\n8 Massachusetts-Lowell
\n9 New Hampshire
\n10 Wisconsin
\n11 Ohio State
\n12 Harvard
\n13 North Dakota
\n14 Dartmouth
\n15 Bemidji State
\n16 Sacred Heart <\/p>\nAnd our brackets:<\/p>\n
West Regional: <\/p>\n
North Dakota vs. Minnesota
\nHarvard vs. Michigan<\/p>\nMidwest Regional: <\/p>\n
Sacred Heart vs. Denver
\nUNH vs. UML<\/p>\nEast Regional: <\/p>\n
Bemidji State vs. Boston College
\nWisconsin vs. Boston University<\/p>\nNortheast Regional: <\/p>\n
Dartmouth vs. Colorado College
\nOhio State vs. Cornell<\/p>\nWe can’t switch North Dakota with Dartmouth as above, so we have to move everyone down a slot. Bemidji State goes to play the No. 3 seed, Dartmouth the No. 4 seed and North Dakota the No. 2 seed.<\/p>\n
Then we once again switch UNH with Ohio State. <\/p>\n
So our new brackets are:<\/p>\n
West Regional: <\/p>\n
Dartmouth vs. Minnesota
\nHarvard vs. Michigan<\/p>\nMidwest Regional: <\/p>\n
Sacred Heart vs. Denver
\nOhio State vs. UML<\/p>\nEast Regional: <\/p>\n
North Dakota vs. Boston College
\nWisconsin vs. Boston University<\/p>\nNortheast Regional: <\/p>\n
Bemidji State vs. Colorado College
\nUNH vs. Cornell<\/p>\nThat’s it for this week.<\/p>\n