{"id":1674,"date":"2014-09-29T21:28:58","date_gmt":"2014-09-30T02:28:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.uscho.com\/from-the-press-box\/?p=1674"},"modified":"2014-09-29T21:28:58","modified_gmt":"2014-09-30T02:28:58","slug":"an-effort-probably-futile-at-interpreting-the-preseason-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2014\/09\/29\/an-effort-probably-futile-at-interpreting-the-preseason-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"An effort, probably futile, at interpreting the preseason poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

Monday’s release of the preseason USCHO.com Division I Men’s Poll<\/a> starts the 18th season of the rankings we put together from the votes of coaches, media members and others in college hockey.<\/p>\n

In a world where the PairWise Rankings exist, we can’t pretend that the rankings are worth any more than the pixels on which they’re displayed. Their real value is in giving a picture of how teams are viewed by those who pay close attention to the game.<\/p>\n

That being said, a lot of people think Minnesota has a team built to make it back to the Frozen Four.<\/p>\n

The Gophers got 36 of the 50 first-place votes to take the top spot<\/a> in the preseason poll. Looking back at previous preseason No. 1s gives mixed signals on whether Gophers fans should be happy about that.<\/p>\n

On one hand, only one of the previous 17 preseason No. 1s went on to win that season’s national championship.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, that one was Minnesota. In the fall of 2002, the defending national champion Gophers got 22 of 40 first-place votes to lead the preseason poll. They finished that season with a second straight title.<\/p>\n

The preseason No. 1 spot has been a bit of a curse lately in terms of making the Frozen Four. Since that 2002-03 Minnesota team, the only preseason No. 1 to make it to the national semifinals was North Dakota in 2007-08.<\/p>\n

Here’s the list of preseason No. 1s and how they’ve fared that season:<\/p>\n

1997-98:<\/strong> North Dakota (30\/30); 30-8-1, won WCHA regular season title, lost in NCAA quarterfinals<\/p>\n

1998-99:<\/strong> Boston College (6\/30); 27-12-4, won Hockey East playoff title, lost in NCAA semifinals<\/p>\n

1999-2000:<\/strong> Boston College (26\/40); 29-12-1, lost in NCAA championship game<\/p>\n

2000-01:<\/strong> North Dakota (24\/40); 29-8-9, won WCHA regular season title, lost in NCAA championship game<\/p>\n

2001-02:<\/strong> Michigan State (33\/40); 27-9-5, lost in NCAA first round<\/p>\n

2002-03:<\/strong> Minnesota (22\/40); 28-8-9, won WCHA playoff title, won NCAA title<\/p>\n

2003-04:<\/strong> Minnesota (25\/30); 27-14-3, won WCHA playoff title, lost in NCAA quarterfinals<\/p>\n

2004-05:<\/strong> Michigan (17\/40); 31-8-3, won CCHA regular season and playoff titles, lost in NCAA quarterfinals<\/p>\n

2005-06:<\/strong> Denver (17\/36); 21-15-3, missed NCAA tournament<\/p>\n

2006-07:<\/strong> Wisconsin (17\/40); 19-18-4, missed NCAA tournament<\/p>\n

2007-08:<\/strong> North Dakota (13\/29); 28-11-4, lost in NCAA semifinals<\/p>\n

2008-09:<\/strong> Boston College (36\/50); 18-14-5, missed NCAA tournament<\/p>\n

2009-10:<\/strong> Denver (20\/46); 27-10-4, won WCHA regular season title, lost in NCAA first round<\/p>\n

2010-11:<\/strong> Boston College (45\/50); 30-8-1, won Hockey East regular season and playoff titles, lost in NCAA first round<\/p>\n

2011-12:<\/strong> Notre Dame (11\/43); 19-18-3, missed NCAA tournament<\/p>\n

2012-13:<\/strong> Boston College (35\/50); 22-12-4, lost in NCAA first round<\/p>\n

2013-14:<\/strong> Massachusetts-Lowell (19\/50); 26-11-4, lost in NCAA quarterfinals<\/p>\n

If you’re looking to predict which team will win the 2015 national championship from the trends of the first 17 years of the preseason USCHO poll, here are some possibilities:<\/p>\n

• No spot in the preseason poll has yielded a champion more than No. 4. That produced the winner in 2001 (North Dakota), 2002 (Boston College) and 2003 (Minnesota). This season, No. 4 is Boston College.<\/p>\n

• Not including the 2013-14 Yale team that was unranked and received just six points in the preseason poll that season, the average position of the eventual champion before the season was 7.3. No. 7 this season is St. Cloud State.<\/p>\n

• The average number of points for the eventual champion (adjusted in some cases to a 1,000-point scale, meaning a 20-team poll with 50 voters like we currently have in place) is 541. This season, the closest team is No. 9 Ferris State.<\/p>\n

Or maybe we should just let the season play out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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