{"id":152008,"date":"2025-03-17T16:42:09","date_gmt":"2025-03-17T21:42:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/?p=152008"},"modified":"2025-03-17T16:42:09","modified_gmt":"2025-03-17T21:42:09","slug":"bracketology-extra-defining-the-pairwise-bubble-and-what-would-need-to-happen-for-bubble-teams-to-make-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2025\/03\/17\/bracketology-extra-defining-the-pairwise-bubble-and-what-would-need-to-happen-for-bubble-teams-to-make-it\/","title":{"rendered":"BRACKETOLOGY EXTRA: Defining the PairWise bubble and what would need to happen for bubble teams to make it"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_151144\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-151144\" style=\"width: 960px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-151144\" src=\"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/IMG_1805.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"540\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/IMG_1805.jpeg 960w, https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/IMG_1805-300x169.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/IMG_1805-150x84.jpeg 150w, https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/IMG_1805-768x432.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/IMG_1805-696x392.jpeg 696w, https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/IMG_1805-747x420.jpeg 747w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-151144\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Reese Laubach has had a strong season up front for the Nittany Lions (photo: Penn State Athletics).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>After this weekend&#8217;s games, the PairWise bubble became very well defined. So much so that the three teams on the bubble know exactly what needs to happen for them to make or miss the NCAA tournament.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s start with the known. Twelve teams have clinched their NCAA bids:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Boston College<\/li>\n<li>Michigan State<\/li>\n<li>Maine<\/li>\n<li>Minnesota<\/li>\n<li>Western Michigan<\/li>\n<li>Boston University<\/li>\n<li>Connecticut<\/li>\n<li>Providence<\/li>\n<li>Ohio State<\/li>\n<li>Denver<\/li>\n<li>Massachusetts<\/li>\n<li>Minnesota State*<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>* The CCHA champion will be either Minnesota State or St. Thomas, but St. Thomas isn&#8217;t eligible for the tournament. Thus, Minnesota State has clinched the CCHA autobid<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Two additional champions will be represented by the Atlantic Hockey American and the ECAC champions. That accounts for 14 teams, leaving two spots. Right now, three teams are looking to take those spots: Quinnipiac, Penn State and Michigan.<\/p>\n<p>Of those three, only one team controls its destiny, Quinnipiac. If they Bobcats win the ECAC championship, they will automatically qualify.<\/p>\n<p>There are six other teams who can take away one of these bids by winning their conference tournaments.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>NCHC: Arizona State, North Dakota<\/li>\n<li>Hockey East: Northeastern<\/li>\n<li>ECAC: Clarkson, Cornell, Dartmouth<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We can further break this down by individual scenarios that would qualify or disqualify the bubble teams. There are a total of 4,096 current scenarios remaining. Here they are broken down by the number of teams that could get bumped off the bubble.<\/p>\n<p><strong>=== 3 BID STEALS (1 option)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If Northeastern wins HEA, Cornell\/Dartmouth\/Clarkson win ECAC, ASU\/North Dakota win NCHC (384 scenarios):<\/p>\n<p>Quinnipiac, Penn State and Michigan OUT<\/p>\n<p><strong>=== 2 BID STEALS (3 options)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1. If Northeastern wins HEA, Cornell\/Dartmouth\/Clarkson win ECAC, ASU\/North Dakota DON&#8217;T win NCHC (384 scenarios):<\/p>\n<p>Quinnipiac in 237 (61.7%)<br \/>\nPenn State in 147 (38.3%)<br \/>\nMichigan OUT<\/p>\n<p>2. If Northeastern DOESN&#8217;T win HEA, Cornell\/Dartmouth\/Clarkson win ECAC, ASU\/North Dakota win NCHC (1152 scenarios):<\/p>\n<p>Quinnipiac in 683 (59.3%)<br \/>\nPenn State in 469 (40.7%)<br \/>\nMichigan OUT<\/p>\n<p>3. If Northeastern wins HEA, Cornell\/Dartmouth\/Clarkson DON&#8217;T win ECAC, ASU\/North Dakota win NCHC (128 scenarios)<\/p>\n<p>Quinnipiac IN<br \/>\nPenn State, Michigan OUT<\/p>\n<p><strong>=== 1 BID STEAL (3 options)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1. If Northeastern wins HEA, Cornell\/Dartmouth\/Clarkson DON&#8217;T win ECAC, ASU\/North Dakota DON&#8217;T win NCHC (128 scenarios):<\/p>\n<p>Quinnipiac Penn State IN<br \/>\nMichigan OUT<\/p>\n<p>2. If Northeastern DOESN&#8217;T win HEA, Cornell\/Dartmouth\/Clarkson DON&#8217;T win ECAC, ASU\/North Dakota win NCHC (384 scenarios)<\/p>\n<p>Quinnipiac, Penn State IN<br \/>\nMichigan OUT<\/p>\n<p>3. If Northeastern DOESN&#8217;T win HEA, Cornell\/Dartmouth\/Clarkson win ECAC, ASU\/North Dakota DON&#8217;T win NCHC (1152 scenarios):<\/p>\n<p>Quinnipiac, Penn State IN<br \/>\nMichigan OUT<\/p>\n<p><strong>=== 0 BID STEALS (1 option)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If Northeastern DOESN&#8217;T win HEA, Cornell\/Dartmouth\/Clarkson DON&#8217;T win ECAC, ASU\/North Dakota DON&#8217;T win NCHC (384 scenarios):<\/p>\n<p>Quinnipiac, Penn State and Michigan IN<\/p>\n<p>So you can see, the odds of all three bubble teams reaching the tournament aren&#8217;t very good: Just 384 out of 4,096 scenarios, or 9.3 percent of the time. That&#8217;s the exact same odds for all three of these teams to MISS the tournament.<\/p>\n<p>The most likely outcome, though, is for two of the three teams to make the tournament. And every one of those scenarios includes Quinnipiac and Penn State in the field and excludes Michigan.<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s still plenty to play for this weekend. But now you know which teams to root for and against to help your favorite team&#8217;s chances.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After this weekend&#8217;s games, the PairWise bubble became very well defined. So much so that the three teams on the bubble know exactly what needs to happen for them to make or miss the NCAA tournament. Let&#8217;s start with the known. Twelve teams have clinched their NCAA bids: Boston College Michigan State Maine Minnesota Western [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":151144,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[947],"tags":[591,812],"coauthors":[800],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>BRACKETOLOGY EXTRA: Defining the PairWise bubble and what would need to happen for bubble teams to make it - College Hockey | USCHO.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"After this weekend&#039;s games, the PairWise bubble became very well defined. 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