{"id":151244,"date":"2025-02-11T07:00:31","date_gmt":"2025-02-11T13:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/?p=151244"},"modified":"2025-02-10T20:23:25","modified_gmt":"2025-02-11T02:23:25","slug":"tmq-pairwise-rankings-coming-into-play-with-ncaa-mens-hockey-tournament-not-all-that-far-away","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2025\/02\/11\/tmq-pairwise-rankings-coming-into-play-with-ncaa-mens-hockey-tournament-not-all-that-far-away\/","title":{"rendered":"TMQ: PairWise Rankings coming into play with NCAA men’s hockey tournament not all that far away"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
UMass Lowell captain Dillan Bentley scored three goals in the River Hawks’ 5-4 overtime loss to UConn Saturday night (photo: UMass Lowell Athletics).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Each week during the season, we look at the big events and big games around Division I men\u2019s college hockey in Tuesday Morning Quarterback.<\/em><\/p>\n

Jim<\/strong>: Well, Ed, we are heading into the nitty gritty of the college hockey season. And as it tends to do at this point in the season, the PairWise is starting to really flesh out which teams are contenders and which teams are not.<\/p>\n

We can definitively say that two teams have clinched their spot in the NCAA field: Boston College and Michigan State. Both teams are locks and both teams are all but locks to be the top two overall seeds in the NCAA tournament.<\/p>\n

Below those two, there is a group of eight teams that all should feel very comfortable with their chances to make the NCAA field. Minnesota, Maine, Western Michigan and Providence are all better than 99 percent to make this field, while Ohio State, Denver, Boston University and Connecticut are all better than a 90 percent chance to qualify.<\/p>\n

Three leagues will likely only qualify their tourney champions: Atlantic Hockey, the CCHA and ECAC Hockey (though Quinnipiac is close enough to the bubble that they could qualify for an at-large without winning the ECAC tournament).<\/p>\n

So using all this reasoning, there are basically three spots up for grabs in the NCAA field and right now there is a legitimate chance of 7-8 teams that could claim those spots.<\/p>\n

The top three schools are UMass Lowell (79%) Michigan (74%) and Arizona State (52%). Minnesota State (55%) sits all the way down at 17th in the PairWise, but it has the best chance of any team below the current cutline because of the Mavericks chance to win the CCHA tournament being quite high.<\/p>\n

I think Massachusetts, Quinnipiac, Penn State and maybe Colgate all should have some tournament aspirations, but all four of those schools have little room for error down the stretch.<\/p>\n

So looking at this landscape and where we sit right now, today: what are your biggest takeaways?<\/p>\n

Ed<\/strong>: First, it looks like the adage about teams in the top eight by this time of the season are pretty much in the tournament holds again this year. Also, we see some “banding” or gaps at certain points in the PairWise.<\/p>\n

For example, the gap between BU and UMass Lowell seems too big for the River Hawks to jump, and by the time you get to UMass, Quinnipiac, and Penn State, you’re looking at trying to catch Arizona State. With each upcoming game accounting for a smaller percentage of your Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) at the end of the season, it becomes more difficult to close ranks.<\/p>\n

Quinnipiac has the ability to move up into an NCAA at-large bid if it doesn’t win the ECAC, but needs a near-perfect record in the last six regular-season games and in the ECAC tournament. That last six includes a trip to Union and up to the north country to take on St. Lawrence and the Clarkson team that beat the Bobcats in OT in Hamden last weekend. That would squeak a second ECAC team into the NCAAs.<\/p>\n

UMass has possibly the best route mathematically of those three I mentioned, since a run through the Hockey East schedule and playoffs still gets the Minutemen in. But the likelihood of that is slim, especially with BC and Maine still on the regular-season docket.<\/p>\n

Penn State is interesting to me as the Nittany Lions have caught fire. A good finish and then deep run in the Big Ten playoffs may squeak them in, but they’ll have to handle a home series vs. Notre Dame before going on the road to Michigan State and a home series to end the season with Minnesota.<\/p>\n

I think Colgate probably has to win the ECAC championship to get into the NCAAs.<\/p>\n

That said, my biggest takeaway is that with all the moving parts, it will almost certainly take the last night of play in conference championships to figure out the fourth and fifth decimal places for the last team in.<\/p>\n

What about the three conferences you mentioned that are likely to have just one team in? How is that shaping up?<\/p>\n

Jim<\/strong>: I think the race in Atlantic Hockey is about as interesting as they come. Sacred Heart entered the weekend in the driver\u2019s seat but took just one of six points against a red-hot Army team.<\/p>\n

Holy Cross swept RIT to gain five points on the Pioneers in the standings and now controls its own destiny as it is tied with Sacred Heart and a point ahead of Bentley. A single game between Bentley and Holy Cross one week from Thursday night could become the de facto regular season championship game in Atlantic Hockey.<\/p>\n

All of that said, that\u2019s just the regular season champion that\u2019s we\u2019re talking about and, while a nice feather in the cap, it means nothing when it comes to qualifying for the NCAA tournament.<\/p>\n

The same goes for the CCHA where Minnesota State has taken a stranglehold on the regular season with its sweep of Augustana. But the postseason champion will need to survive a minefield with teams like the aforementioned Minnesota State and Augustana plus Michigan Tech and Bowling Green all trying to make a postseason run.<\/p>\n

I want to bring up one team you mentioned, Massachusetts. They rallied to beat UConn this weekend in its only game and now is just below the bubble in the PairWise. If they move up and get into the field, that\u2019s seven Hockey East teams, something absolutely unprecedented.<\/p>\n

Ed<\/strong>: Before I comment on the bounty of contenders from Hockey East, the final AHA standings may come down to a game rescheduled from Dec. 7 that has AIC at Holy Cross for a Monday, Feb. 24, game \u2013 two days after the rest of the league schedule ends. AIC was unable to field any goalies and after some consideration, the game was postponed to that date. That could determine first place in the league, tiebreakers, and also the order of the bottom six teams who play a one-game first-round contest on March 1.<\/p>\n

Seven! That must be sending shivers down the spines of the NCAA D-I men’s ice hockey committee and the thought of seeding and scheduling that many from one league. Avoidance of first-round matchups between teams within the same league would suggest that three regionals would have two teams from Hockey East and one in the other. That could end up with a scenario that hasn’t happened in 20 years.<\/p>\n

In the 2005 NCAA men’s D-I Frozen Four, four teams from the dearly departed WCHA made it to Columbus. North Dakota beat Minnesota and Denver downed Colorado College before the Pioneers prevailed over the Fighting Sioux for DU’s second straight title under head coach George Gwozdecky.<\/p>\n

There were five WCHA teams in the tournament that year \u2013 Wisconsin was the other and lost to Michigan in the first round \u2013 and three regional No. 1 seeds, with North Dakota a two seed. A seven-team representation would have even better odds.<\/p>\n

Still, I think six is more likely. And it’s possible then for the committee to put them in three regionals, ensuring at least one other conference represented in St. Louis.<\/p>\n

All of this can still be derailed by some conference champions outside of the bubble in the Big Ten, NCHC, and Hockey East. Any favorite dark horses for you?<\/p>\n

Jim<\/strong>: I feel like we really do talk a lot about parity in college hockey, but then when I attempt to look through league standings late in the season to try to find a few dark horses that could go on runs towards a conference title, I have a difficult time picking against favorites.<\/p>\n

I think Hockey East is Boston College\u2019s to lose just as I think either Michigan State or Minnesota will win the B1G. So dark horses in those leagues are difficult to identify for me, even though Hockey East is single elimination playoffs.<\/p>\n

The CCHA feels like a race between Minnesota State and Augustana with Michigan Tech and Bowling Green ready to pounce.<\/p>\n

The NCHC and Atlantic Hockey seem pretty wide open, though in AHA, I still see one of three – Holy Cross, Bentley and Sacred Heart – having a chance.<\/p>\n

The crazy playoffs always occur in Lake Placid. Quinnipiac has a slight lead in the standings with six games left. If they win the regular season, it will be the 10th time in 20 seasons Quinnipiac will be the number one seed. In that time, they have won just a single ECAC tournament. If you’re looking for a dark horse, the ECAC should be your destination. Maybe its Clarkson or Cornell, or maybe Dartmouth shocks everyone and wins its first ECAC title. But the ECAC is always where I look for a postseason upset.<\/p>\n

Ed<\/strong>: I think I agree with you on Hockey East and Big Ten. If we’re talking about teams outside the PairWise bubble, it would have to be a team like New Hampshire or Merrimack in Hockey East to run through the league playoffs, and in the Big Ten, Penn State, Wisconsin, or Notre Dame.<\/p>\n

In the NCHC, most of the league is outside the bubble, so a good performance in the playoffs could get a team in. Colorado College, North Dakota, and Omaha are below the PWR Mendoza line, but are capable of a run.<\/p>\n

Two teams I would add who could upset the apple cart in Atlantic Hockey are Army West Point and Niagara.<\/p>\n

And in the ECAC? You’re right about what happens in Lake Placid. Let’s toss in Colgate and Union into the mix when we’re talking about dark horses.<\/p>\n

If past experience holds, I expect at least one dark horse will make it to a conference championship game, making it a white-knuckle night for a couple of teams hoping to keep their NCAA bid alive … or to resuscitate it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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