{"id":146327,"date":"2024-03-23T07:00:50","date_gmt":"2024-03-23T12:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/?p=146327"},"modified":"2024-03-23T10:19:10","modified_gmt":"2024-03-23T15:19:10","slug":"bracketology-extra-fifteen-spots-have-been-filled-in-the-ncaa-field-with-colorado-college-massachusetts-left-to-claim-the-last-and-fractions-of-a-decimal-point-separating-the-two","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp-admin.uscho.com\/2024\/03\/23\/bracketology-extra-fifteen-spots-have-been-filled-in-the-ncaa-field-with-colorado-college-massachusetts-left-to-claim-the-last-and-fractions-of-a-decimal-point-separating-the-two\/","title":{"rendered":"BRACKETOLOGY EXTRA: Fifteen spots have been filled in the NCAA field with Colorado College, Massachusetts left to claim the last with fractions of a decimal point separating the two"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Alex Bump has compiled 13 goals and 34 points this season for Western Michigan (photo: Ashley Huss).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

(This story has been updated to include all scenarios for tonight’s games)<\/em><\/p>\n

With Friday night’s conference playoffs complete and one champion, Michigan Tech, crowned, we can confidently say that 15 of the 16 spots in the NCAA tournament have been filed.<\/p>\n

In order:<\/p>\n

1. Boston College*
\n2. Boston University*
\n3. Denver*
\n4. Michigan State*
\n5. North Dakota
\n6. Maine
\n7. Minnesota*
\n8. Wisconsin*
\n9. Quinnipiac*
\n10. Michigan
\n11. Omaha
\n12. Western Michigan
\n16. Michigan Tech (CCHA champion – 33rd in current PairWise)<\/p>\n

Other spots will be claimed by the Atlantic Hockey champion, either AIC or RIT and by the ECAC champion, either Cornell or St. Lawrence.<\/p>\n

Teams that have the asterisks above are locked into that exact spot, thus we know that Boston College, Boston University, Denver and Michigan State, in that order, will be the No. 1 seeds.<\/p>\n

Quinnipiac losing in the ECAC semifinals throws a massive wrench in the at-large bids and crushed some hopes. But when all is said and done, there are only two teams bidding for the final at-large bid: Colorado College and UMass.<\/p>\n

Had St. Cloud State advance on Friday past Denver (the Huskies never trailed and lost 5-4 in overtime), the final spot would be either St. Cloud or Colorado College. That would’ve been based on a single game result.<\/p>\n

Often times when we get to championship Saturday, it’s that simple, and we can reference “if X wins this game, team A gets in; if X losses, team B gets in.”<\/p>\n

In what has already been an incredibly complicated year for Bracketology, shocking that this won’t be anywhere near that clean.<\/p>\n

UMass and Colorado College, when all is said and done, will likely be separated by less than .0004 percentage points in the RPI, which will be the final ties breaker. It is actually possible that the math will have to go past the typical fourth decimal place, i.e. we could be talking about the separation by .00001 or even .000001. How is that for close?<\/p>\n

Entering Saturday, there are 32 total scenarios left. In 20 of those scenarios (63%) Colorado College will earn the final spot. In 12 of them (37%) UMass will take the final spot.<\/p>\n

I’ve tried to identify the 12 scenarios UMass needs to make the tournament (easier than identifying the 20 for CC). Here is what I’ve come up with.<\/p>\n